We’re one week away from the fantasy soccer playoffs, so it’s time to replace our playoff protection (DST) rankings. You might have already got a spot locked up or maybe you must win this week to get in however regardless, we’re now firmly on the time of 12 months the place you must be planning weeks upfront, which incorporates having your defenses set to go.
To assist with that, I’ve created a Playoff Score to rank the defenses for Weeks 15-17. I took my commonplace BOD Formula (pasted beneath) which I exploit to calculate probably the most reliable fantasy defenses after which I enter every crew’s opponents for 3 weeks of the fantasy playoffs. I then took that quantity and added it to every protection’s common fantasy factors per recreation over the past six weeks, multiplied by 1.5 to offer it somewhat further weight. That means the Playoff Score takes under consideration every crew’s success over the previous six weeks plus their upcoming schedule.
How Do I Use This Rankings?
Since I exploit current fantasy factors scored per recreation and in addition use an offense’s factors allowed to opposing defenses as a part of this formulation, that signifies that these rankings will probably change incrementally week after week as groups change their general efficiency and offensive rankings change which impacts the convenience of the matchup. As a end result, my recommendation for find out how to finest use this text is to get a way of which groups are arrange finest for playoff success however use the color-coded chart beneath to attempt to discover two defenses which you can put in your roster to rotate matchups and keep away from having to begin any defenses in a subpar matchup.
The matchups highlighted in inexperienced are the ten best matchups for fantasy defenses, in accordance with efficiency over the past month (groups ranked thirty second to twenty third) and the matchups highlighted in pink are the ten hardest matchups (tenth to 1st, clearly). You’ll see some extra feedback beneath that assist to make clear a few of these rankings.
BOD Formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 1.5) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
Important Rankings Notes
Before we dive into the rankings, there are a few fast notes about how every crew is ranked as an opponent that you must know.
- I used the typical fantasy factors allowed to opposing defenses for the final month in order that we will get probably the most correct illustration of how the groups are enjoying at this second.
- The Saints will now be with out Taysom Hill, who has been an enormous a part of their offense, so, I took their present rating because the Fifth-toughest matchup for opposing fantasy defenses and dinged them somewhat bit to place them simply exterior of the highest 10.
- The Falcons have been one of the best matchup for fantasy defenses over the past month, nevertheless it didn’t really feel proper to rank them as such right here since a whole lot of them got here from Cousins’ horrible recreation final week. Instead, I averaged their season-long rating with their final four-week rating, which put them because the Seventh-best matchup and that felt honest to me.
- You’ll additionally see that the Raiders and 49ers are each ranked because the Eighth-best matchup for fantasy defenses going ahead and that’s simply because I used to be adjusting for the offensive accidents on each groups which brought about them to complete with the identical rating.
- Yes, I do know it’s bizarre to see Carolina as a nasty matchup, however the reality is that they’ve been since Bryce Young was again within the beginning lineup. It feels a bit flukey, however the offensive line has been nice all season and this efficiency has been happening for six weeks now, so I made a decision to go away it as is.
Rest of Season Rankings
These are 4 defenses within the high ten of my BOD rankings, which, as I discussed above, have been up to date to mirror efficiency over the past six weeks, so it is sensible that they’re in my high tier of defenses for the fantasy playoffs.
The Eagles have been my top-ranked protection for the final two months and are averaging 9.6 fantasy factors per recreation over the past six weeks, so this isn’t a shock. The Steelers and Commanders aren’t smash spot matchups, however they’re additionally above-average matchups for fantasy defenses over the past month and you understand we’ve got no downside focusing on the Cowboys right here, so really feel tremendous assured enjoying the Eagles.
The Rams schedule seems to be quite a bit higher than it did three weeks in the past now that San Francisco has been hit onerous by accidents and this Cardinals offense has come again all the way down to Earth a bit. They don’t have any really unhealthy matchups on their schedule, and in order that makes me really feel extra assured in utilizing them going ahead.
The 49ers’ accidents have additionally helped the outlook for a Lions protection that has additionally been hit onerous by accidents and has not been performing on the stage we noticed earlier within the 12 months. The Bears are additionally now not as enticing of a matchup as they have been three weeks in the past, however you don’t have to run from them, so I believe the Lions are a strong play for those who can simply discover one other protection to make use of in Week 15, which I’ve instructed beneath.
The Bills are lastly wholesome on protection with Matt Milano again out on the sector, they usually’re averaging 9.4 fantasy factors per recreation over the past six weeks. Their cross rush isn’t nice and they are often overwhelmed on the bottom, however they do a very good job retaining groups out of the top zone and are 3rd within the NFL in turnover charge over the past two months. The Bills have strong matchups in Week 16 and 17, in order that they have risen in these rankings in the previous few weeks, however that matchup in opposition to the Lions is one we wish to keep away from. You additionally know you’re going to get one of the best effort from the Patriots and Jets in opposition to their division rival, however with each video games in Buffalo, I’m undecided it’ll matter an excessive amount of.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Eagles paired with Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Bucs
- Rams paired with Eagles, Cardinals, and Bengals
- Lions paired with Bears, Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, and Packers
- Bills paired with Rams, Ravens, Packers, Cardinals, and Bengals.
This tier options the overwhelming majority of the remaining defenses inside my high ten BOD defenses, which is why they proceed to be ranked excessive regardless of some robust matchups blended in for the rest of the season. However, this tier is a transparent demarcation of the place the drop-off is after good defenses with strong matchups and the place you get into Sophie’s alternative of utilizing a very good protection in a nasty matchup or a nasty protection in a very good one.
Of the Broncos’ three video games, solely the Chargers are a nasty matchup for fantasy defenses, and they’ll even be with out JK Dobbins for that recreation. The Broncos are my 8th-ranked protection over the past two months and are averaging 8.7 fantasy factors per recreation over that span. Even with a troublesome schedule, I believe you possibly can rely on them for the playoffs however perhaps pair them with one of many defenses I discussed beneath.
The Vikings are lurking simply exterior the highest 10 in these rankings however have carried out properly for fantasy, so, in consequence, these really feel like 4 of the most secure defenses which you can have in fantasy soccer proper now. You might wish to pair them with one other protection for the weeks the place they’re dealing with an opponent marked in pink above, however I wouldn’t drop any of them and I’d begin them in any matchup that isn’t pink.
The Colts and Packers are the 2 defenses not on the highest ten fringe who featured on this tier and you may see why for those who have a look at the colour coding of the chart. You should maneuver across the Colts’ Week 15 showdown with the resurgent Broncos; nonetheless, the opposite matchups are sturdy and people ultimate two matchups may win you your league.
I’m somewhat frightened in regards to the Texans, and I may see if individuals wished to fade them completely. They misplaced Jalen Pitre and we don’t know for the way lengthy, and they didn’t look nice in opposition to Mac Jones on Sunday. The Dolphins and Chiefs each even have the POTENTIAL to be unhealthy matchups for opposing defenses, so it feels onerous to belief the Texans in opposition to them.
Similarly, the Chargers and Steelers are high ten defenses for me over the past two months, however their schedules aren’t nice for the playoffs, which is why you see them down right here on the fringes. I don’t wish to say that it is best to reduce both protection as a result of we all know the expertise they’ve, however I believe you must have choices prepared for Weeks 15 and 16, which I’ve listed beneath.
All three of these defenses are principally the final three good defenses you may use within the playoffs, so that you’d have to resolve for those who can belief their physique of labor and play them regardless of their unhealthy schedules or for those who’d slightly roll the cube on a nasty protection that has a very good schedule.
POTENTIAL PAIRINGS:
- Steelers paired with Rams, Bengals, Packers Ravens, Falcons,
- Colts paired with Rams, Vikings, Cardinals, Packers and Bengals
- Vikings paired with Texans, Commanders, Chiefs, and Cardinals
- Seahawks paired with Steelers, Cardinals, Bengals, Titans, Bucs, Saints, or Jaguars
- Chargers paired with Ravens, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Bengals
- Broncos paired with Rams, Vikings, Colts, Bengals, or Bucs
We’re now getting exterior of probably the most constantly strong defenses apart from Cleveland, who is likely one of the final remaining top-ten defenses for me. However, they don’t have any good matchups left. Now, none of them are actually horrible, nevertheless it’s onerous to really feel optimistic about firing up the Browns in any of these video games, so I’d slightly discover one other protection.
The Bengals have an incredible schedule the remainder of the best way with no really unhealthy matchups. However, the Bengals have been a poor protection this season and rank twentieth in my BOD rankings over the past six weeks. I’d really feel extra comfy with utilizing the Bengals as a supporting protection to one of many really sturdy defenses we’ve seen all year long.
Similarly, you gained’t discover a higher schedule than the one the Jaguars protection has, however are you actually going to belief the Jaguars along with your championship on the road? It could be a daring name.
Chicago has been a protection we’ve trusted many of the season, however they’ve been slipping of late and have three brutal video games forward of them that I can’t see enjoying them for. You may hold Chicago in your roster by pairing them with the proper protection, and I’ll go over some choices beneath, however you must deal with them strategically.
The Bucs have been additionally a classy protection to make use of for the postseason, however with the Panthers trying much more competent of late, it’s onerous to get as excited in regards to the Bucs’ protection as we’d have been just a few weeks in the past. Plus, they simply misplaced beginning security Jordan Whitehead for the season, which is a significant blow to that protection.
The Cardinals have come on of late, averaging 7.7 fantasy factors per recreation over the past six weeks which, when paired with this strong schedule, makes them an intriguing protection for the fantasy soccer playoffs, however I’d slightly not use them in opposition to the Rams and that Panthers matchup doesn’t look as juicy because it did earlier than.
POSSIBLE PAIRINGS
- Bengals paired with Commanders, Eagles, Colts, Seahawks, and Bears
- Ravens paired with Colts, Bills, Lions, Dolphins and Rams.
- Bears paired with Bucs, Cardinals, and Bengals
- Cardinals paired with Seahawks, Colts, Bills, and Jaguars
- Bucs paired with Lions, Colts, Broncos, and Chiefs
I can’t see utilizing any of those defenses for the fantasy playoffs.
