Overall, the entrance strains of Syria’s civil battle have been stagnant since 2020, though there have been fierce episodic clashes. For the previous 4 years, Assad has managed a lot of the nation and its largest cities; a Turkey-tolerated, HTS-led alliance of largely Islamist rebels have remained squeezed in an enclave in Idlib and components of the countryside west of Aleppo, whereas Turkish troops and Turkish-sponsored militias have been overseeing a strip of what was as soon as Kurdish territory alongside the border north of Aleppo. And in Syria’s northeast, the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — a U.S. ally in opposition to the jihadist Islamic State — have largely been left to their very own units.
The offensive has dramatically shifted all that, however the penalties are troublesome to foretell. Erdoğan now holds lots of the strings, however whether or not they slip from his fingers is one other matter. He actually doesn’t need issues to spin uncontrolled and Assad to fall, however which will partly rely on whether or not HTS retains to the script, consolidates in Aleppo and focuses on establishing an Islamist-style authorities there, a lot because it has in Idlib. If it fees off and pushes south of Hama as a result of Assad’s defenses crumble, then Erdoğan could discover he sparked greater than he bargained for.
The Turkish chief has been urgent Assad to comply with reconcile for the previous few months, however the Syrian chief has shunned the supply, insisting Turkey first withdraw 1000’s of its troops and its sponsored militias from Syrian territory. Thus, some observers see the offensive as a part of Ankara’s effort to strain Assad into normalizing relations and negotiating a political answer to the civil battle — which might give Erdoğan the chance to repatriate 4.7 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey.
The reconciliation would probably come at appreciable value to the Kurds and contain the curtailment of their semi-autonomy within the northeast as effectively. Turkey and its proxies are already increasing their management of Kurdish-controlled cities and villages adjoining to the border. And over the weekend, the Turkish-sponsored Syrian National Army seized the Kurdish stronghold of Tal Rifaat, together with different SDF cities and villages east of Aleppo.
So, the place does this depart Russia? Like Assad’s different key allies Iran and Hezbollah, Moscow is concentrated on different priorities — particularly, Ukraine. And thus far, Russian warplanes have solely flown restricted bombing sorties in help of Assad’s forces, including to hypothesis that the Kremlin knew concerning the coming offensive and isn’t sad seeing strain on Assad mount.
Moscow too has been pushing Assad to reconcile with Erdoğan and discover political options to finish the civil battle, which might open Syria up for profitable commerce for Russian companies, and presumably guarantee there are not any dangers to its strategic air and naval bases in Syria. Over the summer time, the Kremlin repeatedly sought to rearrange face-to-face conferences between the Syrian and Turkish leaders to no avail.
