The rosters for the 4 Nations Face-Off have been unveiled. Now it’s time to research them.
It’s no small process assembling a staff to symbolize Canada, Finland, Sweden or the United States. There are plenty of troublesome decisions to be made across the margins relating to match and utilization; it isn’t so simple as choosing the highest scorers and saying “achieved.” How every staff comes collectively in a brief match could matter greater than how good every staff is on paper.
Still, the precise expertise assembled issues and that’s what we’re right here to debate.
From greatest to worst, right here’s how every nation stacks up for the match. Projections for the way the match is anticipated to unfold comply with on the backside.
United States
This is America’s golden period and its match to lose.
No staff is deeper than Team USA, a bunch that has no holes all through its lineup and is stacked at each place. There are not any actual flaws right here because the U.S. lastly has the high-end expertise to match Canada, particularly with superstars down the center and on protection.
The glut of facilities (the U.S. is bringing seven) means some people will probably be on the wing. Could that imply Jack Hughes (who isn’t nice at attracts) on a high line with Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk? It actually seems like an ideal match. There’s plenty of versatility in America’s forwards and plenty of attention-grabbing methods to make the items match with a robust mixture of various ability units. That ought to make chemistry straightforward to fabricate, which is an enormous plus.
That stated, I feel there could be some remorse in not bringing Tage Thompson. The one space the U.S. nonetheless lacks relative to Canada is pure firepower — an space the place Thompson’s presence would’ve bridged the hole. Having each Vincent Trocheck and Brock Nelson — each nice and worthy gamers — feels a bit of redundant.
Team USA’s forwards come up a bit wanting Canada’s, however they greater than make up for that on the again finish and between the pipes. America’s blue line is deep. Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox are high three defensemen on the planet and Zach Werenski is enjoying like one this season. Charlie McAvoy, Jaccob Slavin and Brock Faber are all terrific shutdown defensemen who give the U.S. three glorious pairs with complementary abilities. Put that in entrance of Connor Hellebucyk, the very best goalie on the planet, and this staff will probably be extraordinarily troublesome to penetrate.
Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman are the final word trump playing cards right here, because the U.S. and Canada have in any other case equal rosters, in response to their Net Ratings. And that’s a helluva distinction. It’s the cause the United States is the staff to beat.
Canada
For the primary time in a very long time, Canada just isn’t the staff to beat. Not solely have the Americans closed the expertise hole, but in addition they’ve arguably surpassed the Canadians on paper.
Canada has plenty of firepower all through the lineup and that will probably be its largest edge on this match. Between Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, Canada has three of the 5 greatest gamers on the planet — a large benefit. Even after them, the staff is loaded with offensive expertise; the emergence of Sam Reinhart as top-of-the-line gamers on the planet is very useful. A rising id of gritty ability is current all through the lineup — particularly with a few of Canada’s savvy backside six decisions — which ought to make Canada annoyingly troublesome to play towards.
There’s clearly plenty of expertise right here and it’s why Canada enters the match with the very best Offensive Rating of any staff, narrowly edging USA. Where there’s some comparative hassle is on protection, as Canada has the bottom Defensive Rating of any nation.
That begins between the pipes, the place Jordan Binnington could be Canada’s most suitable choice however might be the eighth-best goaltender on the match — a foul signal given there are solely 4 groups.
The points transcend that with a again finish that isn’t as sturdy as what Canada used to tout throughout its golden period. Makar is nice and Josh Morrissey, too — however everybody else carries query marks. Devon Toews hasn’t regarded himself this season, whereas Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore have been getting buried at five-on-five in Vegas.
That could have led to some protected decisions in Travis Sanheim and Colton Parayko, although it’s debatable whether or not both has the dynamic high-end capability to benefit from Canada’s offensive strengths. Leaning into Canada’s overwhelming offensive benefit with Evan Bouchard on the again finish (particularly contemplating his improved defensive sport during the last yr) would’ve closed the hole significantly between Canada and the U.S. Instead, Canada performed it protected with this period’s Eric Brewer and, in consequence, enters the match with the third-best blue line.
Canada remains to be loaded with expertise, however the staff positively has some vulnerabilities that may be exploited. More so than common. The Canadians are sturdy sufficient to win, however the Americans look a bit of bit higher.
Sweden
Sweden’s largest energy, as common, lies inside its again finish. The chosen group nonetheless brings the warmth, particularly with how sturdy Victor Hedman has regarded this season. He’s at his greatest proper now and may lead a deep blue line that options an elite shutdown trifecta of Mattias Ekholm, Gustav Forsling and Jonas Brodin. It’s the second-best protection group within the match.
There’s a cause Sweden is firmly third fiddle right here to Canada and the U.S., although. Though its goaltending is best than Canada’s, Sweden nonetheless enormously lags behind the U.S. between the pipes. The larger challenge, although, is up entrance, the place Sweden lacks the identical high-end expertise that Canada, the U.S. and even Finland possess.
Elias Pettersson, William Nylander and Filip Forsberg are all terrific gamers — they’re franchise-caliber. But they’d not be high three forwards on any of the opposite three groups. That’s an enormous drawback when the staff goes to be staring down McDavid, Matthews and Aleksander Barkov. As deep because the staff’s protection is, the identical could be stated there. Hedman has been superb, however he’s no Makar, Hughes or Miro Heiskanen.
Up entrance, Sweden additionally lacks secondary weapons past its huge three. Jesper Bratt is an excellent participant, however the drop-off after him is kind of stark. Mika Zibanejad’s epic decline this season actually hurts.
The Swedes will probably be a tricky out, however there’s a reasonably large hole between them and the 2 North American juggernauts.
Finland
The Finns have a robust nucleus of expertise on the high of the lineup, extra so than even Sweden. Between Barkov, Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen and Juuse Saros, Finland has a really particular group of top-end expertise that may rival a few of the greatest that Canada and the U.S. have to supply. That a lot of it’s concentrated down the center helps, too, because the Finns are proper there with Canada and the U.S. in middle expertise.
The drawback is there simply isn’t sufficient elsewhere. Finland nonetheless lacks in secondary expertise and that reveals in each its backside six and, properly, each defenseman not named Miro Heiskanen.
Finland has a popularity for being frisky and has the desire to make any sport extra attention-grabbing. Having the second-best Defensive Rating behind USA backed by the second-best goaltending will help with that, however that’s in all probability Finland’s solely path to victory. The different three nations have extra methods to get forward and it’s why Finland will enter each sport on this match a sizeable step behind the competitors.
The odds
It’s no shock the United States and Canada lead the pack right here, successful the match 78 % of the time. That doesn’t imply Sweden and Finland shouldn’t trouble displaying up, however given the expertise disparity, their probabilities of making noise — even in a brief match — are slimmer.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: John Russell, Kevin Sousa, Mark LoMoglio / NHLI; Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
