It’s New York vs. Los Angeles! The huge sport! The matchup all people’s been ready for! The true conflict of giants at MLS Cup 2024 offered by Audi on Saturday (4 pm ET | Apple TV – Free; FOX, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)!
On Monday’s Extratime, we talked about how this matchup felt nearly predestined at the beginning of the 2010s. One facet had David Beckham, Robbie Keane and Landon Donovan, and the opposite had Thierry Henry, Tim Cahill and Wayne Rooney’s youthful, a lot much less proficient brother. How may that not work out?
It took a dozen years since then, however we’re lastly right here. In LA we’ve acquired one of many highest-scoring, most ball-dominant groups within the league going for his or her report sixth title. In New York we’ve acquired high-pressing maniacs who’ve became Route 1 retailers trying, after almost three many years, for his or her first cup of any type.
They appeared like the very best attacking workforce on the earth for 3 video games. Then within the fourth, they went toe-to-toe with the league’s most disciplined and ruthless protection, and made the most important play within the greatest second.
How they did any/all the above issues in no way as a result of every thing they have been doing was oriented round and run by way of Riqui Puig. If you’re studying this, you understand Riqui tore his ACL across the sixty fourth minute of LA’s win over the Sounders – but nonetheless hobbled alongside for the remainder of the sport earlier than ultimately threading Dejan Joveljić by way of within the eighty fifth minute for the match-winner. It’s a play that may reside perpetually in Galaxy lore.
Without him, it’ll be a distinct Galaxy workforce taking the sphere on Saturday as a result of Riqui is certainly one of one. Even if Marco Reus have been wholesome (he’s not; if he does play, I doubt it’ll be for greater than 20 minutes) he wouldn’t play the function the identical approach Riqui does as a result of actually nobody performs the function the way in which Riqui does. Look at this information:
“It’s not precisely how I noticed the place on paper,” head coach Greg Vanney stated final week on the way in which Riqui performs.
“What we have discovered with Riqui is tips on how to give him the precise areas to permit him to maneuver round as a result of he is unplayable when he is on the transfer. And it is so laborious when you attempt to mark him and chase him round as a result of he’s so cell and he is so fast, and so lots for us is tips on how to not put him within the field, however for different guys who’re taking part in with Riqui, to know tips on how to finest be efficient and to permit his actions to happen and to work off of these issues.”
And so the 5 video games the Galaxy performed this 12 months with out Puig – during which they beautiful famously went 3W-1L-1D – offers us a greater concept, I believe, of how rather more structured and egalitarian Vanney would have his midfield be if he wasn’t possessed of perhaps the second-best passer of the ball in your complete world.
To borrow the reason from Seb Bush, who put these graphics collectively, “Puig missed 5 video games this season, and in these video games, the Galaxy’s last third move distribution was far more unfold out. Their Gini coefficient (equality of distribution the place 1 is unequal, 0 is equal) is 0.43 with Puig on the pitch. Without him, it falls to 0.3. That’s a fairly large hole.”
The backside line: with a midfield trio of Edwin Cerrillo on the again level, together with Mark Delgado and Diego Fagúndez because the free 8s, it’ll be rather more structured with a lot much less risk-taking off the ball. You lose Puig’s brilliance, however you additionally lose among the shape-breaking motion and numerous the “oh rattling we’re completely caught out” turnovers (it’s important to restrict these vs. the Red Bulls) which have plagued the Galaxy at occasions this 12 months.
TL;DR: Expect a bog-standard 4-3-3 that asks the wingers to win the match and the midfielders to not lose it.
In RBNY’s last sport of the common season, which they misplaced 3-2 to the Crew, the gap from their very own aim line of their common defensive motion was 45.83 meters.
In their two subsequent video games vs. the Crew in Round One of the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs, that quantity dropped to about 40.5 meters. And by the point they have been finished 1-0’ing Orlando City to loss of life final weekend, it had slid to only 33.7 meters from their very own aim. (Shouts to Seb for all these numbers, too – as quickly as this child’s sufficiently old to drink I’ve acquired to purchase him a beer).
Just bringing it again to the beginning of the playoffs doesn’t actually inform the story of how this workforce’s developed, although, as a result of the change occurred earlier. You have to return to late September, once they acquired stuffed in a locker by New York City FC (5-1 last, and it wasn’t that shut) within the Hudson River Derby. Here are some earlier than/after numbers that specify a bit about what head coach Sandro Schwarz determined his workforce wanted to turn into within the wake of that one:
Before: 599 touches per 90, twenty second within the league.
After: 476 touches per 90, lifeless final by almost 17%.
Before: 79.4% passing accuracy, twenty sixth within the league.
After: 73.6% passing accuracy, lifeless final by a mile.
Before: 3.48 switches tried per 90, 14th within the league.
After: 1.43 switches tried per 90, good for twenty seventh.
Before: 35.9% of their passes have been ahead, which was fifth in MLS.
After: Fully 45% of their passes are ahead. No one else even touches 40%.
And right here’s the massive one:
Before: 14.1% of their passes have been lengthy balls, fourth in MLS.
After: 21.1% of their passes are lengthy balls. No one else is over 16.6%.
Schwarz noticed what he noticed, then determined to place three heart backs on the market. This isn’t power drink soccer, that is correct footy, m8. Welcome to the Champo!
Has it been seamless? Absolutely not! Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel has needed to stand on his head, making one big save after one other.
But the DPs are scoring simply sufficient, they usually’ve been homicide on set items. And so for simply the second time of their membership’s existence, it’s the ultimate sport of the season and the Red Bulls are nonetheless standing.
Here’s a enjoyable word from these 5 video games the Galaxy performed with out Puig: with out him, their passes allowed per defensive motion (a tough measure of how excessive and laborious groups press) craters from ninth within the league to twenty sixth. I went again and watched most of these video games, and I’m fairly certain that’s by design.
When Riqui’s on the market they should win the ball again ASAP, earlier than he goes wandering and breaks their form. When he is in road garments they’re extra static, and the concept is to only let the opponents get on the ball and get assured sufficient to return upfield with it, then instantly assault into area with livewire wingers Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil. If this sounds acquainted, it’s as a result of that is precisely what Orlando City did to the Red Bulls within the first half this previous weekend:
Yes, even this model of RBNY could be baited into leaving area in behind. They haven’t come upfield a lot, although once they have the Nealis brothers, Sean and Dylan, have been juuuuust adequate defending within the channels, as has Andrés Reyes in the course of the backline. Still, it’s the man behind them – Coronel – who has been the workforce’s finest participant for the reason that postseason started.
Can it occur once more? Of course. But if Pec and Paintsil get out on the break a couple of occasions, and get on the tip of sequences just like the one above, I just like the Galaxy’s possibilities.
On the flip facet… long-ball, second-ball, one move and shoot. Or set items.
That’s been Plan A and Plan B for RBNY for the previous six weeks. There’s been no Plan C. And once more: they’re nonetheless standing.
They’re in Carson, the place they haven’t misplaced all 12 months, and even with out Puig (and probably Reus as properly) they’ve acquired extra match-winners. That contains goalkeeper John McCarthy, who hasn’t needed to be pretty much as good as Coronel this postseason, however who’s answered the bell each time he’s been requested, and who’s a former MLS Cup MVP.
It additionally must be stated that this protection is at a distinct stage since Emiro Garcés grew to become the full-time starter with 4 video games to go within the common season. Since then (together with playoffs), the Galaxy have allowed simply 1.05 npxG per 90, which is a top-five mark within the league. Before Garcés gained the job they have been permitting 1.46 npxG per 90, which was twenty first.
They’re a greater workforce, they usually’ve been taking part in prefer it. Ninety extra minutes of what they’ve been doing they usually’ll have the {hardware} to make it indeniable.
