Bashar al-Assad’s household fled to Russia within the days after insurgent forces launched a shock offensive that captured swathes of territory throughout northern Syria, it has been revealed.
It comes after a supply near the Kremlin advised Bloomberg News that Moscow had no plans to rescue the Syrian president, with Vladimir Putin mentioned to be disgusted by experiences of regime troops fleeing their positions.
“Russia doesn’t have a plan to save lots of Assad and doesn’t see one rising so long as the Syrian president’s military continues to desert its positions,” mentioned the supply.
Asma al-Assad, the Syrian president’s British-born spouse, fled with their three kids final week, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing Syrian safety officers and Arab officers.
Assad’s two brothers-in-law have additionally left Syria and travelled to the United Arab Emirates, the newspaper mentioned.
It is unclear whether or not the Syrian president has remained in his nation.
A professional-Assad TV information channel mentioned on Friday that he had travelled to Iran, however later denied its personal report.
Egyptian and Jordanian officers are understood to have urged the Syrian president to go away the nation and kind a government-in-exile.
The jihadist-led insurgent forces captured Hama on Thursday night time after seizing Syria’s second metropolis, Aleppo, final week. On Friday, they had been advancing on town of Homs, which lies on the street to Damascus.
The US and Russia each advised its residents to go away Syria on the subsequent obtainable industrial flight.
On Friday night time the US Department of State advised Americans to go away from Damascus or “be ready to shelter in place for prolonged intervals”.
Charles Lister, the director of the Syria programme on the Washington-based Middle East Institute, mentioned Assad had relied on Putin to save lots of him in 2015 however his future now regarded bleak, including: “Russia doesn’t appear in a position, or even perhaps prepared, to save lots of him.”
Iran has a navy presence in Homs and different components of Syria, and on Friday Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian international minister, mentioned he would assist Assad “to the extent vital”, with out elaborating.
But Iran might have been weakened by direct and oblique clashes with US-backed Israel, and its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon have been degraded by a significant Israeli offensive.
The lightning-fast insurgent strike has not solely strained relations between Russia and Syria however has additionally made the Kremlin nervous in regards to the security of its navy bases.
Fighterbomber, a distinguished aviation navy running a blog channel, has warned that the Kremlin will wrestle to evacuate its principal air base earlier than rebels assault and seize it.
It issued the warning after Jihadist rebels captured town of Hama on Thursday night, opening up a transparent path to the Khmeimim air base, 75 miles west close to the Mediterranean.
“It is sort of unimaginable to evacuate the bottom. In one of the best case, it’s attainable to evacuate many of the personnel, documentation and ferry serviceable plane,” it mentioned. “All different property will stay on the bases.”
It seems that the insurgent strike that has routed Syrian authorities forces throughout the nation over the previous week was by no means thought of possible, and emergency evacuation plans weren’t drawn up.
According to Fighterbomber there are solely two reserve airfields in Syria, which he described as a “important minimal”. This signifies that as an alternative of flying plane off weak airstrips, they should be pushed to the Russian naval base of Tartus, 50 miles away, after which loaded onto transport ships.
Alexander Kots, one other influential Russian navy blogger, mentioned Russian jets couldn’t do a lot to halt the advance of the rebels with out assist on the bottom from the Syrian military, including:“The Syrian military will not be but exhibiting any explicit readiness to combat for its nation.”
There can be the specter of insurgent drone strikes on Russian bases in Syria. When Putin ordered his forces to intervene within the Syrian civil battle in 2015, drones weren’t a function, however the battle in Ukraine has turbo-charged their use on the battlefield.
“The Khmeimim airfield will not be a multi-story industrial facility with basements, it’s a area with easily-assembled homes on high, which is able to stop to operate as quickly because the enemy both approaches the vary of artillery fireplace, or the vary of drones,” mentioned Fighterbomber.
Putin intervened within the civil battle in Syria in a carefully-calculated transfer designed to provide the Kremlin a straightforward international navy win and to undertaking drive.
Part of the plan was to arrange a string of navy bases that may very well be used to annoy the West. The two most essential are the airbase at Khmeimim and the naval base at Tartus, 50 miles south. Reports mentioned Russian naval ships have already been seen leaving Tartus, though Western officers don’t imagine it has been deserted.
Last week rebels captured Aleppo and overran a few close by smaller Russian bases. Putin promptly sacked the primary Russian commander in Syria and ordered his air drive to accentuate their assaults on rebels, however Dara Massicot, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment, mentioned the transfer didn’t seem to have labored.
She defined that defending its bases, very important for Putin’s North Africa and Middle East ambitions, can be a precedence for the Kremlin, including: “Watch for indicators that mercenaries are redeploying to Syria. By now, Russia most likely has made its assessments and is executing plans.”
Putin has pledged to his Iranian allies that he’ll assist Assad however analysts have mentioned he might be annoyed with the renewed combating in Syria as a result of it’s going to distract him from his battle in Ukraine, which is a precedence undertaking.
Rebels advance in Syria’s strategically essential province of Homs on Friday – Izettin Kasim/Anadolu by way of Getty Images
Russian navy bloggers with robust hyperlinks to Russian forces have additionally began to query the standard and dedication of the Syrian military.
Rybar, a Russian navy blogger, mentioned insurgent forces had been nonetheless advancing quickly and that Syrian navy claims of a counterattack had been lies. “There are not any smart experiences of battles or any resistance from the Syrian troops in any respect,” Rybar mentioned, including that an assault on Damascus was anticipated inside the subsequent few days.
“The tempo at which the militants are shifting from the north means that Homs is not going to final lengthy. Next they may probably goal Damascus,“ mentioned the blogger.
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