The Detroit Lions’ win over the Green Bay Packers clearly had a reasonably big influence on the NFC standings. The Lions (12-1) maintain onto the highest spot for at the least one other week, because the Vikings (10-2) and Eagles (10-2) will now each should win in Week 14 to remain a recreation behind Detroit.
It additionally had a profound influence on the NFC North, with the Lions primarily pushing the Packers out of attain within the division.
Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the playoff influence of Thursday night time’s consequence by trying on the crew odds and possibilities from varied mathematical fashions.
For a have a look at the postseason odds previous to this recreation, try this put up from earlier within the week.
Detroit Lions’ playoff odds
NYT: 100%
DVOA: 100%
ESPN: 100%
Washington Post: 100%
Every mannequin had the Lions at 99 or 100% final week, however with Thursday’s win, there isn’t a want for chance fashions; the Lions are mathematically in—they’ve formally clinched a spot within the postseason.
Meanwhile, in case you’re curious, the loss didn’t actually harm the Packers’ probabilities on the postseason. The NFC is so high heavy that they’re nonetheless on the verge of clinching themselves. Most fashions nonetheless have them at 99% to make the playoffs.
Lions odds to win NFC North
NYT: 90% (+3%)
DVOA: 92.7% (+2.5%)
ESPN: 93% (+8%)
Washington Post: 97% (+5)
The Lions’ odds to win the division are as much as the 90s, with the WaPo mannequin being essentially the most optimistic about Detroit’s probabilities. What’s additionally price noting is that the Packers are practically mathematically eradicated from successful the division. Each of those 4 fashions has the Packers’ likelihood at successful the division under one p.c. Essentially, they’d should have the Lions lose out, plus the Vikings must lose at the least two of their final 5 video games, whereas the Packers run the desk.
Lions’ odds to win the NFC’s No. 1 seed
NYT: 84% (+17%)
DVOA: 82.4% (+8.8%)
ESPN: 79.7% (+11.7%)
Washington Post: 86% (+20%)
This win was big for Detroit’s probabilities for a first-round bye, which now stand between 80-86 p.c in response to these fashions. Their greatest menace to the highest seed stays the Eagles, who’ve anyplace between a 12-15 p.c likelihood of overtaking the Lions.
