When Syria’s new interim prime minister, Mohammad al-Bashir, chaired a Cabinet assembly in Damascus on Tuesday, hanging behind him was the flag of the nation’s instantly victorious opposition.
Next to it, nevertheless, was a second banner standard with the area’s Sunni Islamist fighters, that includes the massive Arabic letters of the Shahada, an Islamic declaration of religion.
As a brand new Syria quick emerges from the ruins of the Assad regime, the world is waiting for hints of what which may appear like — and that second flag has involved these hoping for a way forward for moderation and tolerance.
That path will largely rely on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the insurgent group that led the cost into Damascus and is now stewarding Syria’s political overhaul.
HTS is banned as a terrorist group within the United States and elsewhere and grew out of a department of Al Qaeda. Its chief, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, mentioned a decade in the past that there can be no room for non secular minorities within the Islamist Syria of which he dreamed about. He additionally urged that he may carry terrorism to the West except it withdrew from the Middle East’s wars.
More not too long ago, nevertheless, Jolani, who now makes use of his actual identify, Ahmad al-Sharaa, has undergone one thing of a rebrand, trimming his beard, donning Westernized inexperienced fatigues and espousing tolerance for all of Syria’s myriad faiths. Nevertheless loads of observers are reserving judgment till these phrases grow to be actions.
“I feel we must be very cautious of him,” mentioned Bilal Sukkar, a Syrian-born senior affiliate with the London-based intelligence consultancy S-RM. That trepidation goes for “not solely respecting the rights of individuals belonging to different non secular and sectarian teams,” he mentioned, “however really taking a look at them as equal residents.”
Seeing Syria’s corridors of energy welcome a flag “indicating Islamist-Salafist leanings” has “put individuals on alert,” Sukkar mentioned. Although he doesn’t suppose deploying the logo was a “sensible” transfer, he sees it as extra reflective of the rebels’ origins in Idlib moderately than anything.
Such demographic lodging are an enormous deal in Syria, which is “dwelling to an unlimited range of spiritual and ethnic teams,” based on the Harvard Divinity School. Some 74% of the inhabitants are Sunni Muslims, one other 13% belong to different sects, akin to Shia and Alawite, and 10% are Christian.
The traditional fear amongst Western international coverage watchers was that Assad could be toppled however changed by one thing that’s not significantly better: an extremist terror group.
Assad’s regime was, rightly or wrongly, seen internationally as considered one of brutal secularism and relative interreligious tolerance. By distinction, HTS has up to now explicitly outlined itself as Islamist, which means it seeks to reorder society alongside Islamic legislation.
Displaying the flag in a picture meant to symbolize Syria’s new transition authorities reveals how HTS and Jolani are nonetheless “deeply entrenched of their Salafist-Sunni ideology and worldview,” based on Fawaz Gerges, a professor on the London School of Economics and writer of the 2024 e book, “What Really Went Wrong: The West and the Failure of Democracy within the Middle East.”
They usually are not going to rule Syria with the brutality of the Islamic State terrorist group or the Taliban, Gerges added, “however it will be disingenuous to say he has shedded his ideology.”
Gerges is amongst observers who see the presence of the flag as a sign that the militant group is intent on holding its imprimatur on the brand new period it helped beginning. Al-Bashir, chosen after a gathering with Jolani, says he’ll solely be in submit till March. But it’s not clear what occurs then.
There have been optimistic early indicators, together with an edict that ladies shouldn’t be advised what they’ll and can’t put on, in addition to a plea for individuals to not search vigilante vengeance.
“We will assure the rights of all individuals and all communities in Syria,” al-Bashir advised the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera on Tuesday. Asked whether or not the nation’s new Constitution can be “Islamic,” he added, “God prepared, we’ll make clear all these particulars throughout the constitutional course of.”
With the group now making extra average noises, and in addition able of appreciable affect, the United States is exploring eradicating HTS’ terrorist designation, two present administration officers and a former senior U.S. official advised NBC News. Although Washington will watch carefully the militant group’s strikes from its new political vantage level.
Some observers, akin to Gerges, see the interim prime minister as little greater than an Jolani figurehead.
Even inside Syria, he’s not a widely known determine. Previously, he ran the federal government in Idlib province, a small, rural nook of northwestern Syria the place rebels maintained management exterior Assad’s regime till their gorgeous offensive.
He heads what’s being touted by the incoming officers as a technocratic authorities; he’s a skilled electrical engineer and has beforehand backed the digitization of Idlib’s public providers.
He and his officers at the moment are going in regards to the strategy of auditing and stripping again what they and unbiased worldwide watchdogs say was a deeply corrupt regime.
Gerges worries that HTS and its chief have already amassed such energy that they could be reluctant to relinquish it, and that there’s little signal of checks or balances to comprise Jolani’s ambitions now that Assad has been toppled.
Syria could also be getting “rid of a strongman,” he cautioned, “and changing him with one other strongman.”
