Trump says Syria ‘not our combat’. Staying out will not be really easy

When Donald Trump sat with world leaders in Paris final weekend to marvel on the restored Notre Dame cathedral, armed Islamist fighters in Syria had been in jeeps on the highway to Damascus finalising the autumn of the Assad regime.

In this break up display screen second of worldwide information, the US president-elect, seated between the French first couple, nonetheless had a watch on the beautiful flip of occasions within the Middle East.

“Syria is a large number, however isn’t our good friend,” he posted the identical day on his Truth Social community.

He added in all capital letters: “The United States ought to don’t have anything to do with it. This isn’t our combat. Let it play out. Do not become involved!”

This submit, and one other the following day, had been a reminder of the president-elect’s highly effective mandate to not intervene in international coverage.

It additionally raised large questions on what comes subsequent: Given the way in which the battle has drawn in and affected regional and international powers, can Trump actually have “nothing to do” with Syria now that President Bashar al-Assad’s authorities has fallen?

Will Trump pull US troops out?

Does his coverage differ drastically from President Biden’s, and if that’s the case, what is the level of the White House doing something within the 5 weeks earlier than Trump takes over?

The present administration is concerned in a frantic spherical of diplomacy in response to the autumn of Assad and the rise to energy of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist armed group that the US designates as a terrorist organisation.

I’m penning this onboard Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s aircraft, as he shuttles between Jordan and Turkey attempting to get key Arab and Muslim international locations within the area to again a set of circumstances Washington is inserting on recognising a future Syrian authorities.

The US says it have to be clear and inclusive, should not be a “base for terrorism”, can not threaten Syria’s neighbours, and should destroy any chemical and organic weapons shares.

For Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for nationwide safety adviser, who has but to be confirmed, there may be one guideline to his international coverage.

“President Trump was elected with an amazing mandate to not get the United States dug into any extra Middle Eastern wars,” he informed Fox News this week.

He went on to listing America’s “core pursuits” there because the Islamic State (IS) group, Israel and “our Gulf Arab allies”.

Waltz’s feedback had been a neat abstract of the Trump view of Syria as a small jigsaw piece in his greater regional coverage puzzle.

His objectives are to make sure that remnants of IS stay contained and to see {that a} future authorities in Damascus cannot threaten Washington’s most vital regional ally, Israel.

Trump can be centered on what he sees as the largest prize: a historic diplomatic and commerce deal to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which he believes would additional weaken and humiliate Iran.

The relaxation, Trump believes, is Syria’s “mess” to work out.

Trump’s rhetoric harkens again to how he talked about Syria throughout his first time period, when he derided the nation – which has a unprecedented cultural historical past courting again millennia – as a land of “sand and demise”.

“Donald Trump, himself, I believe actually wished little or no to do with Syria throughout his first administration,” mentioned Robert Ford, who served as President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Syria from 2011-14, and who argued inside that administration for extra American intervention within the type of help for Syrian reasonable opposition teams to counter Assad’s brutal suppression of his inhabitants.

“But there are different folks in his circle who’re far more involved about counterterrorism,” he informed the BBC.

The US presently has round 900 troops in Syria east of the Euphrates river and in a 55km (34 miles) “deconfliction” zone bordering Iraq and Jordan.

Their official mission is to counter the IS group, now a lot degraded in desert camps, and to coach and equip the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF – Kurdish and Arab allies of the US who management the territory).

The SDF additionally guards camps containing IS fighters and their households.

In apply, the US presence on the bottom has additionally gone past this, serving to to dam a possible weapons transit route for Iran, which used Syria to provide its ally Hezbollah.

Mr Ford, like different analysts, believes that whereas Trump’s isolationist instincts play properly on social media, the realities on the bottom and the views of his personal workforce may find yourself moderating his stance.

That view is echoed by Wa’el Alzayat, a former adviser on Syria on the US Department of State.

“He is bringing on board some critical folks to his administration who will likely be operating his Middle East file,” he informed the BBC, particularly noting that Senator Marco Rubio, who has been nominated for secretary of state, “is a critical international coverage participant”.

These tensions – between isolationist beliefs and regional objectives – additionally got here to a head throughout his first time period, when Trump withdrew remaining CIA funding for some “reasonable” rebels, and ordered the withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria in 2019.

At the time, Waltz known as the transfer “a strategic mistake” and, fearing an IS resurgence, Trump’s personal officers partially rowed again his determination.

Trump additionally diverged from his non-interventionist beliefs by launching 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airfield, after Assad allegedly ordered a chemical weapons assault that killed scores of civilians in 2017.

He additionally doubled down on sanctions towards Syria’s management.

The blurred strains of Trump’s “it isn’t our combat” pledge had been summed up by Waltz.

“That does not imply he is not keen to completely step in,” he informed Fox News.

“President Trump has no downside taking decisive motion if the American homeland is threatened in any means.”

Adding to the potential for stress is one other key determine, Tulsi Gabbard, who Trump has nominated as director of nationwide intelligence. The controversial former Democrat-turned-Trump ally met Assad in 2017 on a “fact-finding” journey, and on the time criticised Trump’s insurance policies.

Her nomination is prone to be closely scrutinised by US senators amid accusations – that she has denied – of being an apologist for Assad and Russia.

Anxiety over the persevering with mission in Syria, and a want to have the ability to finish it, isn’t unique to Trump.

In January, three American troopers had been killed at a US base in Jordan in a drone strike by Iran-backed militias working in Syria and Iraq, because the Israel-Hamas battle in Gaza threatened to unfold farther within the area.

This assault and others have continued to boost inquiries to the Biden administration over US pressure ranges and their publicity within the space.

In reality, lots of the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump administrations’ positions on Syria match greater than they diverge.

Despite the sharp variations within the tone and rhetoric, each leaders need Damascus run by a authorities amenable to US pursuits.

Both Biden and Trump wish to construct on Iran and Russia’s humiliation in Syria.

Trump’s “this isn’t our combat, let it play out” is his equal of the Biden administration’s “this can be a course of that must be led by Syrians, not by the United States”.

But the “main” distinction, and that which raises probably the most nervousness amongst Biden supporters, is in Trump’s strategy to US forces on the bottom and American backing for the SDF, mentioned Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat in Washington who helped opposition figures flee the Assad regime.

“Biden has extra sympathy, connection, ardour in the direction of [the Kurds]. Historically, he was one of many first senators to go to the Kurdish areas [of northern Iraq] after Saddam Hussein’s Kuwait invasion,” he mentioned.

“Trump and his folks they do not care as a lot… they take it into consideration to not depart their allies out, they get this, [but] the way in which they implement it’s totally different.”

Mr Barabandi, who mentioned he helps Trump’s non-interventionist rhetoric, thinks the president-elect will pull out US troops “for positive”, however over a gradual timeframe and with a transparent plan in place.

“It won’t be like Afghanistan, inside 24 hours,” he mentioned. “He will say inside six months, or no matter time, a deadline for that and for the association of all the things.”

Much could revolve round Trump’s discussions with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom he’s thought to have an in depth relationship.

American backing for the SDF has lengthy been a supply of stress with Turkey, which views the People’s Defense Units (YPG) – the Kurdish pressure that makes up the SDF’s navy spine – as a terrorist organisation.

Since Assad fell, Turkey has been finishing up air strikes to pressure Kurdish fighters out of strategic areas, together with the city of Manbij.

Trump could wish to reduce a cope with his good friend in Ankara that enables him to withdraw US troops and will see Turkey’s hand strengthen additional.

But the potential for Turkish-backed teams taking management of some areas worries many, together with Wa’el Alzayat, the previous US State Department Syria skilled.

“You cannot have totally different teams operating totally different components of the nation, controlling totally different assets,” he added.

“There’s both the political course of, which I do assume the US has a job to play, or one thing else, and I hope they keep away from that latter situation.”