Less than two weeks after the Syrian National Army (SNA) started its newest offensive in opposition to then-President Bashar al-Assad, the insurgent forces now discover themselves as Syria’s new leaders. Led by the previous Harakat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) member Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the rebels’ efforts are at the moment centered on transitioning into the provisional Syrian Salvation Government (SSG). Following the collapse of Assad’s regime, Syria has launched into a political transformation, signaling a possibility to rebuild the nation after over a decade of civil battle.
As the preventing forces transition to determine a brand new authorities for Syria, world leaders have expressed measured optimism whereas underscoring the challenges forward. Echoing related sentiments, governments from the US, France, the UK, Germany, and even Saudi Arabia welcomed the autumn of Assad’s regime as a pivotal second for Syria but additionally warned of the dangers of such a transition, particularly since Julani’s HTS is an offshoot of al-Qaeda. Even Turkey has stayed away from normalizing relationships with the SSG, even when, behind the scenes, the NATO member has helped the SNA in a number of methods.
The worldwide group understands the fragile steadiness required to navigate this historic turning level and the necessity for stability, political options, and safety of civilians and minorities. As Syrians are discovering themselves in an inner debate concerning their future, international leaders had been subsequently cautious to not cross sure traces till they perceive if the SSG will restore order, peace, and freedom whereas additionally cooperating internationally.
Itay Goitman, a Middle Eastern affairs researcher specializing in Syria-related topics, supplied a realistic view of HTS. “The SSG capabilities as a type of political wing for HTS, however in actuality, it operates extra as a puppet. Both entities are managed by the identical management and don’t act independently from the militant aspect of the group,” he advised The Media Line.
“As for primary authorities infrastructure and the supply of every day providers, these are prone to stay comparatively unchanged from the earlier regime. However, what will probably be essential to observe within the coming weeks is the connection between the Kurds and HTS. The developments throughout this era may present important insights into how the scenario might evolve,” Goitman added.
Similarly, Dr. Mohammad Salami, an affiliate analysis fellow on the International Institute for Global Strategic Analysis, defined to The Media Line the dangers concerned in anticipating HTS to desert its radical beliefs within the new Syria. “This group was as soon as a department of al-Qaeda, and after splitting off, it modified its title to Harakat Tahrir al-Sham. The methods and targets of a gaggle can simply change, however beliefs hardly ever do.”
Continued Salami: “The group is made up of Islamist members who’ve participated on this battle with excessive ethical targets and a robust perception in jihad. The pursuit of secularism and motion in opposition to Sharia disappoints them. On the opposite hand, this group just isn’t homogeneous, and because the group chief, al-Julani can’t make selections independently with out contemplating the opinions of others,” he stated.
For now, even the UN Security Council appeared to agree on Syria. Diplomats from the US and Russia reported a unified stance on key points, resembling preserving Syria’s territorial integrity, defending civilians, and facilitating humanitarian support to these affected by the battle. Meanwhile, Syria’s UN Ambassador, Koussay Aldahhak, assured that Syrian missions and embassies would proceed operations all through the transition regardless of the insurgent victory by HTS, a gaggle at the moment beneath UN sanctions. At this level, discussions within the Security Council concerning the potential lifting of sanctions on HTS haven’t but commenced.
Dr. Steven Terner, the supervisor of Terner Consulting, a New York-based geopolitical and enterprise consultancy, defined to The Media Line that the autumn of the Assad regime, “whereas definitely performed by Syrian residents, on behalf of Syrian residents, satisfies the pursuits of regional and world actors that oppose each the Iranian regime and the Russian regime, specifically Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, the EU, the US. In this case, the pursuits of Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Europe, and the United States are aligned, and there’s a feeling of immediacy to behave because of the upcoming change within the geopolitical place of the US with Trump’s imminent presidency.”
Meanwhile, in Syria, the world is watching attentively because the transition takes place. On Syrian social media information channels, public service bulletins have offered much-needed updates to Syrians amid this fragmented panorama of their nation.
The coastal space of Latakia, recognized for its allegiance to former President Assad, is reportedly in direct communication with the SSG’s Transitional Council in Damascus. The Latakia Council of Elders representing the Alawite group, Assad’s ethnic group, has issued an announcement supporting the SSG.
According to the declaration, the group’s Alawite Council wrote that they supported the brand new imaginative and prescient for a nationwide Syria and publicly referred to as for “medical doctors, engineers, and intellectuals, to return to our nation in order that we are able to contribute collectively to constructing a contemporary Syria primarily based on concord and love. Let us and the folks in our areas not carry weapons and get entangled in shedding Syrian blood. We verify the unity of the territories of the Syrian Arab Republic and its sovereignty belonging to the motherland Syria.”
Having established a provisional normal command for Syria, the SSG introduced on social media that “it’s strictly forbidden to intervene with girls’s gown or impose any request concerning their gown or look, together with requests for modesty. We affirm that private freedom is assured to all and that respect for the rights of people is the idea for constructing a civilized nation.”
Women’s rights amongst first targets of Islamists
Considering that ladies’s rights are one of many first targets of Islamists, Dr. Salami highlighted the significance of this announcement. Despite normal skepticism in direction of the newly fashioned SSG, he stated that “the initiation of a authorities on girls’s clothes not less than reveals their intelligence in how a lot they need to be acknowledged internationally. The emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan is a nasty expertise for the HTS. The Taliban’s crackdown on girls’s rights and their lack of ability to comprise ISIS-Okay have led world powers to view all Islamist teams with suspicion.”
Another assertion by the SSG’s normal command additionally declared that “it’s strictly forbidden to assault media personnel working within the Syrian TV, Syrian Radio, and social media pages. It is forbidden to make any threats to them beneath any circumstances.” For these failing to conform, the violators will probably be imprisoned for a 12 months, based on the SSG.
Similarly, the brand new provisional Ministry of Information “referred to as on everybody to hitch their work through the subsequent two days in order that the assorted media retailers can resume broadcasting and issuing documentation of a fateful stage within the historical past of Syria.” The nation’s provisional Ministry of Communications additionally said on social media that “the Internet is working usually and an settlement has been reached with HTS to proceed communications, and we’ll return to our work websites inside two days.”
Universities are additionally offering a way of normalcy amid the quick modifications. Tishreen University introduced that it had resumed its administrative and educational work with the return of its administrative and educational workers working as common, with the dates of sensible examinations to be decided later.
According to a public assertion by the Tishreen University Administration: “The college administration asks all deans, professors, staff, and college students to attend the college headquarters tomorrow at ten within the morning for individuals who can as a volunteer work day to wash the college and defend the good points of the sons of the homeland. We should work as one staff to construct the homeland and protect public property from infrastructure, paperwork, and college certificates that belong to all college students. The Syrian folks deserve an honest life and a greater future, and we ask God that the approaching days will convey goodness to all.”
Damascus University’s president issued the same assertion, assuring college students and their households that “the tutorial course of will proceed, and the deans of the universities and members of the educating workers have been directed to train their paternal and cognitive function throughout nowadays. Damascus University continues to play its function in preserving the good points and rights of our college students. We hope everybody will protect the infrastructure and academic establishments as a result of they belong to the folks of Syria.”
The Syrian Central Bank knowledgeable on the identical media channels that it’s working and “will proceed to comply with up and supervise the work of banking and non-banking monetary establishments working in accordance with the relevant rules. The financial institution demonstrates the continuation of the work of those establishments by offering their providers to clients in an applicable method. We guarantee our fellow residents coping with all working banks that their deposits and funds positioned with these banks are protected and haven’t and won’t be uncovered to any hurt.”
While the SSG is projecting a dedication to nationwide unity, private freedoms, and institutional rule, specialists are skeptical, particularly concerning the connection with the Kurdish inhabitants within the autonomous areas in northeastern Syria. Having borne the brunt of each ISIS’s wrath and Assad’s repression, the Kurds stay cautious in regards to the SSG’s intentions and its capacity to safeguard minority rights.
Boaz Shapira, a researcher on the Alma Research and Education Center, defined to The Media Line the Assad household adopted a extra secular posture as a result of they had been Alawites. He argues that if the SSG had been to impose an Islamist lifestyle, “it might be exhausting for lots of people. The HTS and different factions need an Islamic regime and all that comes with it. Some of them are virtually the identical as ISIS. Meanwhile, you’ve gotten folks just like the Kurds, the Assyrians, Sunni Arabs, that are additionally a lot much less non secular.”
For now, HTS and its Islamist allies are being extra reasonable and speaking in methods “which are palatable to Western leaders, like ensuring the minorities are protected and we respect everybody. Still, HTS has an advanced historical past with many allegations of human rights violations. So, the SSG have to be examined on what he does, not what it says. This isn’t simply in regards to the Alawites. The Kurds management about 30% of Syria, and so they need their very own nation,” Shapira highlighted.
Ehtesham Shahid, an impartial analyst primarily based in Dubai, additionally defined that “given the transformation HTS has led to in its method lately, it appears to be like like a risk that HTS may grow to be extra reasonable. However, it’ll require an equal, if no more, wiser method from the opposite teams which are stakeholders in Syria. Kurds would have a look at Turkey earlier than formulating a response, whereas for Alawites, it might be a matter of survival,” he argued.
According to Shahid, HTS “understands that being reasonable is their greatest foot ahead, not less than for now. So, they might stick with this method and check the waters on what radical insurance policies they’ll implement and which of them would possibly face resistance. It just isn’t of their curiosity to grow to be Syria’s Taliban.”
Still, Goitman additionally sees issues underway for Syria’s inner dynamics with HTS and the Kurds. According to him, “With Turkish intervention and an absence of Russian and Iranian assist, the scenario may be very tense proper. HTS just isn’t keen on the Kurdish thought of a Kurdish state, and the Kurds are scared that HTS goes to proceed preventing. During this previous week, HTS has been getting confrontational, particularly up north, with Kurdish forces. And I believe that is one thing to look out for.”
Shir Mor, a counterterrorism and Middle East researcher on the ITSS Verona, advised The Media Line that “the Kurdish group, which had lengthy been oppressed beneath Assad’s rule, noticed the regime’s collapse as a possibility to pursue better autonomy. However, their place stays precarious, with ongoing assaults from hostile factions, such because the current assault on Kurdish forces in Manbij by insurgent teams, heightening their vulnerability. In response, the Kurds have sought worldwide alliances, together with with Israel, to safe their communities and stabilize the area.”
Receiving Turkish assist, the SNA has been accustomed to getting extra assist the extra anti-Kurd they’re. “It’s necessary to acknowledge that Turkey is fueling an anti-Kurd sentiment in Syria. Turkey does not just like the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), and so they don’t love Kurds within the northeast. So, for HTS, in the event that they need to keep on Turkey’s good aspect, they must be extra anti-Kurdish,” Goitman detailed, including that the scenario may simply derail into violence.
For Israel, the reason for the Kurdish State acts as a counterbalance to Iranian ambitions in Syria and includes humanitarian support and potential strategic help, positioning Israel as a key participant in facilitating cooperation amongst Syria’s fragmented factions. “Through its diplomatic leverage with Western powers, Israel can advocate for frameworks that defend minority teams just like the Kurds and promote decentralized governance fashions that enable for regional autonomy and broader nationwide cohesion,” Mor concluded.
Regarding Russia, after 10 years of battle in Syria and involvement in quagmires in Ukraine, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso, Putin’s forces are stretched skinny. Dr. Terner defined that Russia’s pursuits within the Caucasus and Central Asia “are beneath risk of coming undone as a result of widespread resentment towards Russian financial and political exploitation in these nations. European nations have been uniting strategically and increasing NATO to counter the Russian risk on the continent. Additionally, the US and EU are possible making an attempt to squeeze Russia on each entrance earlier than the incoming US administration led by Donald Trump abandons Europe to get nearer to Russia,” he added.
For now, the worldwide group won’t neglect HTS’s less-than-ideal previous, together with its shut ties to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. However, “if the HTS can acknowledge minority rights, keep away from hostility in direction of the US-backed Kurds, and set up an inclusive authorities, recognition is feasible. Still, adhering to those factors with teams preventing throughout Syria with conflicting targets and intentions is optimistic, not less than within the quick time period. However, it’s not not possible,” Dr. Salami stated.
Despite all of the challenges forward, Shahid believes the world has already acknowledged HTS. “For the worldwide group, it’s about accepting the lesser evil. The unraveling of the Assad regime has additionally uncovered its brutality, and the brand new Syrian authorities can be seen as liberators who ended this decades-old tyranny.”
