The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has opened a brand new entrance for geopolitical competitors within the Middle East.
Now, nonetheless, as an alternative of Iran and Russia enjoying essentially the most influential roles in Syria, Israel and Turkey see a chance to advance their conflicting nationwide and regional safety pursuits.
Under their respective leaders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, relations between the 2 international locations have deteriorated sharply in recent times. This units the stage for a bitter showdown over Syria.
A brand new rivalry is rising
Turkey is extensively reported to have backed the offensive led by the Sunni insurgent group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to drive Assad from energy, thus backstabbing Syria’s conventional allies, Iran and Russia.
Tehran has intimated that with out Turkey’s assist, HTS would have been unable to attain its blistering takeover.
Now, with Assad gone, Erdoğan is believed to be positioning himself as de facto chief of the Sunni Muslim world. He additionally needs Turkey to be one of many dominant powers within the area.
Erdoğan has mentioned if the Ottoman Empire had been divided otherwise following its defeat within the First World struggle, a number of Syrian cities, together with Aleppo and Damascus, would have probably been a part of modern-day Turkey.
Turkey instantly reopened its embassy in Damascus after Assad’s fall and provided assist to HTS in shaping the nation’s new Islamist order.
As a part of this, Erdoğan has opposed any concession by HTS to the US-backed Kurdish minority in Syria’s northeast, which he regards as supporters of the Kurdish separatists in Turkey.
Meanwhile, Israel has taken benefit of the ability vacuum in Syria to advance its territorial and safety ambitions. It has launched a land incursion into the Syrian aspect of the strategic Golan Heights and has executed an enormous bombardment of Syria’s navy property throughout the nation.
Atef Safadi/EPA
Israel’s overseas minister mentioned destroying these property – which included ammunition depots, fighter jets, missiles and chemical weapons storage amenities – was mandatory to make sure they didn’t fall into the “arms of extremists” that would pose a risk to the Jewish state.
Turkey sees Israel’s latest actions in Syria and the occupied Golan Heights as a land seize. Israel’s actions have additionally been denounced by Arab international locations, who demand Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity be revered.
Israel is clearly involved in regards to the rise to energy of an Islamist group and the transformation of Syria right into a jihadist state.
This is even though HTS chief Ahmad al-Sharaa (also called Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has signalled he doesn’t need battle with Israel. He’s additionally pledged to not enable any teams to make use of Syria for assaults on Israel.
At the identical time, al-Sharaa has known as for the withdrawal of Israel from Syrian territory in line with a 1974 settlement that adopted the 1973 Yom Kippur struggle.
Bitter foes
Erdoğan, Turkey’s reasonable Islamist president, has lengthy been a supporter of the Palestinian trigger and a fierce critic of Israel. But tensions have considerably escalated between the 2 sides because the begin of the Gaza struggle.
Erdoğan has known as for an Arab-Islamic entrance to cease what he’s known as Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza. He has equally berated Israel’s invasion of Lebanon earlier this yr.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in the meantime, has lashed out at Erdoğan over time. He has known as him a “joke” and “dictator” whose jails are full journalists and political prisoners. He has additionally accused of Erdoğan of committing a “genocide” of the Kurdish individuals.
Washington, which is allied to each Turkey and Israel, has launched intense diplomatic efforts to make sure that HTS strikes Syria in a beneficial route. It is eager to see a post-Assad system of governance aligned with America’s pursuits.
These pursuits embody HTS’ assist for America’s Kurdish allies in northeast Syria and the continued presence of 1,000 American troops within the nation. The US additionally needs HTS to proceed to forestall the Islamic State terror group from regaining power.
AP
The US can even need to handle the rising geopolitical rivalry between Israel and Turkey in Syria.
Some observers haven’t dominated out the potential of an Israeli-Turkish navy showdown, ought to Israel flip what it calls its short-term occupation of the demilitarised zone on the Syrian aspect of the Golan Heights right into a everlasting territorial acquisition.
This is to not say a struggle between them is imminent. But their clashing pursuits and the breadth of mutual hostility has actually reached a brand new degree.
Iran’s loss might be pricey
For Iran, Assad’s ouster means the lack of a crucial ally in its predominantly Shia “axis of resistance” towards Israel and the United States.
The Iranian regime had labored onerous to construct this community during the last 45 years as a basic a part of its nationwide and wider safety. It had propped up Assad’s minority Alawite dictatorship over the Sunni majority inhabitants in Syria at the price of some US$30 billion (A$47 billion) because the standard rebellion towards Assad started in 2011.
Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP
And with Assad now gone, Iran is disadvantaged of a significant land and air bridge to considered one of its key proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Assad regime’s sudden demise is now inflicting soul looking out in Tehran in regards to the knowledge of its regional technique – and whether or not it can have any important position in any respect within the new Syria. This appears unlikely, as al-Sharaa (the chief of HTS) has declared his disdain for each Iran and Hezbollah.
Al-Sharaa has prioritised the institution of a publicly mandated Islamist authorities and Syria’s reconstruction and nationwide unity over a battle with Israel, Iran’s arch enemy. This will little doubt result in competition with the hardliners and reformists in Iran.
Only time will inform how all of this can play out. At this stage, the way forward for Syria and the area hangs within the steadiness. And a lot will depend on whether or not HTS leaders will transfer to arrange an all-inclusive political system and unite a Balkanised Syria.
