It’s right here. It’s lastly right here. An actual-life 12-team College Football Playoff.
And but, a part of me nonetheless can’t fathom that I’m going to activate my TV on Friday night time and watch an Indiana-Notre Dame Playoff recreation broadcast dwell from the Golden Dome. Somehow this second managed to sneak up on me after a mere 25 years protecting the BCS/four-team CFP.
Note: Submitted questions have been evenly edited for size and readability.
Which first-round video games are the most certainly to provide upsets? Do you suppose we’ll get any? — Greg S., Conn.
It wouldn’t be in step with the 2024 season for all 4 video games to go chalk. I totally count on there to be upsets within the early rounds. But it’s robust to pinpoint which one(s).
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Tennessee beating Ohio State is the simplest alternative, primarily as a result of we don’t know what sort of headspace the Buckeyes are in after their loss to Michigan. As Ohio State guru Cameron Teague Robinson wrote this week, it’s not a perfect matchup for Ryan Day’s crew, as its precarious offensive line must take care of a stacked Tennessee defensive entrance. But I additionally discover it laborious to think about the Vols shifting the ball constantly in opposition to Jim Knowles’ protection.
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What I discovered about Ohio State-Tennessee after every week of watching Vols video games
I’m choosing Ohio State, although I’m anticipating fairly just a few Vols followers to infiltrate the Horseshoe.
My precise upset decide is SMU profitable at Penn State. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings is a baller who can deal with that highway setting, and although the Nittany Lions’ dashing assault exploded in opposition to Oregon, SMU has the nation’s third-ranked run protection. I might be lifeless flawed, in fact. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik threw 4 touchdowns in opposition to the Mustangs within the ACC Championship Game, so the window is there for Drew Allar. But between these two QBs, I’d relatively journey with Jennings.
Most importantly, I don’t imagine, like some, {that a} crew from south of the Mason-Dixon Line will lose the flexibility to play soccer within the 20-something-degree climate anticipated in Happy Valley on Saturday.
Speaking of Penn State …
Backup quarterback Beau Pribula introduced he was leaving Penn State within the switch portal. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
Are we any nearer to varsity soccer altering the winter switch portal timing contemplating the Penn State backup QB scenario and CFP? Would they ever think about a separate winter portal timing for quarterbacks based mostly on the distinctive nature of that place? — Andrew W.
Everyone agrees the faculty soccer calendar is a catastrophe, however nobody has an answer. The sport has to work across the tutorial calendar, and the Playoff now runs till Jan. 20, proper round most faculties’ deadlines to enroll for the second semester. Players reminiscent of Penn State’s Beau Pribula who wish to be at their subsequent college in time to take part in spring apply can’t wait to see how far their crew makes it earlier than getting into the portal.
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Blame a damaged system for Beau Pribula’s tough exit from Penn State
One suggestion is to eliminate the winter window and say the portal is open one time all yr, in April. But coaches need gamers there for spring ball. Oftentimes, a participant who desires to remain at his present college via the educational yr to complete his diploma finds his record of suitors diminished. And the coaches lamenting the present December chaos would be the identical ones complaining in the event that they don’t know who’s going to be on their roster till May.
On prime of all that, the whole lot is a lawsuit for the NCAA now. As quickly because it places in a brand new restriction limiting athletes’ motion, somebody, someplace goes to sue the group. On what grounds, I don’t know. But keep in mind, earlier this yr, a bunch of state attorneys normal received a shocking injunction that struck down all restrictions on switch eligibility. Telling athletes they’ll’t swap colleges between semesters appears ripe for the same problem.
Either you shift the season earlier (as I’ve been suggesting for 3 years) so there’s extra of a buffer between the nationwide championship recreation and the beginning of the spring semester, otherwise you eliminate spring soccer, thus lessening the strain to enroll early at a brand new college. Steve Sarkisian prompt that faculty soccer undertake the NFL’s OTA/minicamp mannequin.
But forcing athletes to attend till the spring to enter the portal whereas retaining the remainder of the game the identical shouldn’t be a viable possibility.
Recently, we’ve seen some coaches both take pay cuts and have the financial savings funneled into identify, picture and likeness (Mike Gundy, Mike Norvell) or outright donate to the NIL fund (Brian Kelly). Is this the start of the market correcting itself now that gamers are getting paid? Will we see extra big-name coaches making $5 million as a substitute of $10 million so the varsity can do a greater job of attracting gifted gamers? — Andrew G., Houston
It may range by college — North Carolina simply gave $10 million per yr to a first-time faculty coach, in spite of everything — however this appears like the start of a first-ever plateau. All it took was for the colleges to lastly should put aside cash for the gamers.
I observed that Rich Rodriguez is getting a modest (by Power 4 teaching requirements) $3.5 million in his first season again at West Virginia. That’s lower than predecessor Neal Brown’s $4 million in 2024 and would have ranked fifteenth out of 16 within the Big 12 this season. West Virginia, to its credit score, grew to become the uncommon college to keep away from negotiating in opposition to itself, which might assist athletic director Wren Baker attain his acknowledged purpose of being “at or close to” the anticipated $20.5 million revenue-sharing cap subsequent yr.
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West Virginia hires Rich Rodriguez
My first response to Norvell’s “restructured” contract — wherein he’s redirecting $4.5 million of his $10 million wage subsequent yr to participant funds — was different coaches are going to be ticked off. It’s unclear whether or not this was fully Norvell’s determination or, coming off a 2-10 catastrophe, extra of the Michigan-Jim Harbaugh pay lower blueprint. But now anytime a coach has a nasty season, his followers are going to count on an identical concession.
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Mike Norvell restructures contract with FSU, directing $4.5 million to fundraising
If nothing else, I’d think about the totally assured 10-year contract period of 2017-21 has come to an finish. So lots of these massively one-sided offers haven’t panned out (Jimbo Fisher, Lincoln Riley, probably Kelly), and colleges are going to bankrupt themselves having to make income share and big ongoing buyout funds yearly.
When SMU joined the ACC, it famously agreed to forego TV income for 9 years. But the Mustangs are eligible for different distributions from the convention, together with for CFP appearances. How a lot do SMU and the ACC stand to realize from SMU’s look within the CFP? — Jake T., Dallas
The easy reply: SMU already has made $4 million for reaching the Playoff, and that quantity would get to $20 million if the Mustangs win the nationwide championship. That’s as a result of the ACC, in its perennial try to please Florida State and Clemson, instituted a “success initiative” mannequin this yr that units apart a few of the convention’s postseason income for the colleges that earn it.
It’s a reasonably simple components.
Conferences obtain $4 million for every college that reaches the CFP, one other $4 million for people who advance to the quarterfinals (together with groups with a bye), $6 million for reaching the semifinals and $6 million for making the championship recreation. Rather than distribute that equally to all members, the ACC is now passing it on straight to the contributors. It will do the identical factor with NCAA basketball items.
So mainly, win the nationwide championship, and SMU’s revenue-sharing funds for subsequent yr are coated.
Why is Alabama afraid of taking part in Illinois? First, Alabama tried to sneak into the Playoff to keep away from matching up in opposition to Luke Altmyer and crew, after which Bama selected to go to an inferior bowl recreation simply to keep away from an embarrassing loss. What offers? WE WANT BAMA!!! — Chris, Frankfort Ill.
Indeed, a ReliaQuestionable determination to say the least. Going and beating up on Michigan as a substitute of dealing with the wrath of Bret Bielema.
(Note to these not detecting the sarcasm: The Citrus Bowl handed on Bama, not vice versa.)
Major boosters reminiscent of Arizona Diamondbacks billionaire proprietor Ken Kendrick and ESPN star Pat McAfee reportedly are pouring huge cash into the West Virginia soccer program following the hiring of Rodriguez. Speaking to McAfee throughout Friday’s present, Rodriguez stated, “You can win a nationwide championship at West Virginia.” Given a serious inflow of funding within the period of NIL, the switch portal and the 12-team Playoff, how lifelike a purpose is that this? — Rick W., Chesapeake, Va.
First of all, West Virginia made the very best rent to date this cycle, and there’s not an in depth second. But I understand not all Mountaineers followers agree with that sentiment given how ugly his exit for Michigan was 17 years in the past.
Winning a nationwide title at West Virginia is significantly tougher than it was in 2007, just because the Mountaineers can’t go 11-1 and skip straight to the championship recreation like they might have had that crew not spit the bit in opposition to Pitt as a 28-point favourite at house. But West Virginia generally is a lot higher than it has been throughout the dozen years since becoming a member of the Big 12. It can win the convention and go to the CFP with the precise coach. And Rich Rod, 61, continues to be that coach.
West Virginia lacks a pure expertise base, however Rich Rod is aware of recruit to that faculty higher than anybody. And I’d think about he’ll use his current expertise within the Sun Belt and Conference USA to assist load up on Group of 5 gamers within the portal. It’s additionally a program that has struggled to search out an identification within the Big 12, the place it by no means had a lot in frequent with the Texas/Oklahoma colleges and now even much less so with colleges in Arizona and Utah. I couldn’t identify one distinctive factor the Mountaineers did in six seasons underneath Brown.
But Rich Rod’s groups have an identification: They unfold out defenses, go quick and run the ball down the protection’s throat. This season, Jacksonville State ranked behind solely Army in dashing yards per recreation (267.3) and was seventh in yards per try (5.7). His offense has advanced, but it surely’s the identical philosophy it was again with Pat White working zone reads with Steve Slaton. As he stated to McAfee: “I nonetheless imagine in taking part in with 11. Our quarterbacks are going to be a part of the play, whether or not it’s a run or a go, on a regular basis.”
Building a contender within the new Big 12 shouldn’t be as tall an order as in different leagues as a result of there aren’t two Alpha applications lording over the opposite colleges. Most are on roughly equal footing in terms of recruiting and assets. If Arizona State can win the convention, actually West Virginia can.
Is UNC higher off with Bill Belichick or Mack Brown? — David H.
I understand I’m extra skeptical of the Belichick rent than most, however Brown’s program was solely trending downward. After profitable the Coastal Division in 2022, UNC went 7-9 within the ACC the previous two seasons and was struggling some actually horrendous defeats, most notably 70-50 to James Madison in Week 4, to not point out 4 straight losses to rival NC State (which was not nice this yr).
The Tar Heels wanted a recent begin, and if nothing else, they’re about to get a yr’s value of Deion Sanders-esque free publicity from ESPN and others.
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Mandel: North Carolina goes to remorse hiring Bill Belichick
To Brown’s credit score, he initially did precisely what followers had hoped and ramped up recruiting, touchdown star quarterbacks Sam Howell and Drake Maye and signing three straight top-15 lessons from 2020 to 2022. The Tar Heels reached an Orange Bowl in Brown’s second season and received 9 video games in his fourth. But he by no means might work out a components on protection, failing to crack the highest 60 nationally (and lots of occasions ending effectively beneath that).
With Belichick, I’ve little doubt the Tar Heels will likely be as sound as they provide you with schemes and recreation planning. My greater concern is that the six-time Super Bowl champ and his normal supervisor, Michael Lombardi, may suppose recruiting will be executed looking at computer systems in a draft-style conflict room relatively than in residing rooms, highschool hallways and through one million GIFs and emoji. The actual reverse of Brown’s downside.
Bruce Feldman and I had a vigorous dialogue about this story on Monday’s episode of “The Audible.” He is far more reverential towards Belichick’s NFL acumen and far more bullish on his prospects as a school coach. But he, too, thinks this experiment is not going to final lengthy, for a special purpose. In his phrases: “I believe he’ll do fairly effectively, be within the Top 25 within the first two years, after which I believe he’ll go away as a result of he will likely be like, ‘I hate this.’”
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Feldman: No purpose Belichick cannot have success at UNC. Just do not count on him to final lengthy
After Marshall pulled out of the Independence Bowl, Ralph Russo reported that 16 of the 18 5-7 groups, as ranked by Academic Progress Rate, declined to play earlier than, mercifully, Louisiana Tech (ranked seventeenth in APR) did. If not one of the 5-7 groups had agreed to play, what would have occurred subsequent? Turn to 4-8 groups? Shift a crew over from one other, lesser bowl? Cancel the sport? — John C., Atlanta, which lastly received a Torchy’s!
Oh, wow, thanks for letting me know the place I’ll be going for lunch on Jan. 20.
The Independence Bowl received fortunate that the final two colleges on the record had been in-state (Louisiana-Monroe was 18th), as I doubt each would have handed. If they’d, the sport most likely would have been canceled, since nobody on the NCAA or bowl facet ever thought to place in a contingency plan for that situation.
They ought to put one in now as a result of this received’t be the final time a crew opts out of a bowl. I perceive why the bowl, AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti and Bowl Season govt director Nick Carparelli had been upset with Marshall, however the Herd misplaced their prime three quarterbacks to the portal after coach Charles Huff left for Southern Miss. That’s along with its prime working again, three of the highest seven receivers and 4 of their prime seven tacklers. At some level, it’s not well worth the hassle for what’s going to be seen as soccer’s model of the NIT, albeit with higher TV rankings.
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Marshall withdrawing from Independence Bowl vs. Army
I’d be in favor of opening up bowls to anybody, no matter their data. The notion of rewarding the groups that had the very best seasons is essentially antiquated at this level as a result of, in lots of circumstances, these aren’t the identical groups the varsity is fielding within the bowl. And there will likely be some 4-8 groups which might be extra excited to go to the L.A. Bowl and whose roster and training staffs are extra intact than a 6-6 crew’s.
I give a ton of credit score to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and Pop-Tarts Bowl people for arising with artistic methods to make their video games related even whereas overshadowed by the CFP. Let’s maintain considering exterior the field and attempt to discover some new tweaks to get probably the most out of bowl season.
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Schools that withdraw from bowls might be penalized in future: AAC commissioner
After seeing the face worth for nationwide championship tickets close to $1,000 for followers who buy via their college, what’s the approximate value for 2 individuals to attend the quarters, semis and championship, together with flight/lodge? — Wmamitch
You’ve come to the precise place. I’m a full-on travel-planning nerd. Sometimes I take pleasure in planning the logistics of a visit greater than the journey itself. Finding under-the-radar lodge offers, plotting the precise proper flight occasions, and many others. You ought to see my spreadsheets from our previous a number of holidays.
So I’ll fortunately plan this itinerary, and I’ll do it particularly for my mates at Boise State. We will likely be staying in cheap motels. Not the Four Seasons, but additionally not Motel 6. Also, if this had been actual life, I might wait till proper earlier than kickoff to purchase recreation tickets, however we’ll use present costs.
Fiesta Bowl: Broncos followers have already got snapped up each flight between Boise and Phoenix the times earlier than and after the sport, so we’ll should fly within the morning of Dec. 31 and keep till Jan. 2.
Flights (Southwest): $1,432
Hotel (two nights, Holiday Inn Express): $414
Tickets (together with charges): $396
Total: $2,242
Orange Bowl: I discovered an incredibly low fare on United if you happen to’re keen to fly Basic Economy (can’t select your seat or convey a carry-on). Buy now and financial institution the credit score if you happen to don’t find yourself utilizing it.
Flights: $490
Hotel (two nights, Fairfield Inn in Fort Lauderdale): $460
Tickets: $620
Total: $1,570
National championship: The fascinating wrinkle right here is that Boise State might be the one to knock off Georgia, which might ship ticket costs in Atlanta plummeting. But we will’t account for that proper now.
Flights (Delta fundamental): $1,118
Hotel (three nights, Hilton Garden Inn): $446
Tickets: $2,400
Total: $3,964
All advised, you’re shelling out $7,776, even earlier than accounting for meals, drinks and transportation. In hindsight, the Eras Tour was a discount in comparison with the CFP.
(Top photograph of Kevin Jennings: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)
