Ever since Roki Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, met with the media on the Winter Meetings, there’s been hypothesis about which workforce may be one of the best match to land the prized right-hander, who was not too long ago posted by his Japanese workforce, the Chiba Lotte Marines.
As one govt put it when requested if his workforce was making an attempt to land a gathering with Sasaki’s group: “Why wouldn’t everybody be making an attempt?”
With Sasaki reportedly assembly with groups as early as this week, it appeared like the best time to have a look at the panorama and see which groups have been finest positioned to signal Sasaki, which is predicted to occur between the beginning of the 2025 worldwide signing interval (Jan. 15) and the top of his 45-day posting interval (Jan. 23).
Is everybody in?
Because Sasaki is beholden to the foundations of the worldwide signing interval and bonus swimming pools, there’s a extra degree enjoying area than for different free agent signings. It’s been made clear that the bonus Sasaki receives to signal is not going to be the figuring out issue. The most any workforce might theoretically supply is the simply greater than $7.5 million that eight groups (the A’s, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, Twins) have of their ’25 swimming pools. The Giants have the smallest pool, at a bit greater than $4.1 million after they forfeited $1 million for signing free agent shortstop Willy Adames.
With the beginning of the ’25 signing interval lower than a month away, a great quantity of these bonus {dollars} could already be earmarked for signings starting on Jan. 15, so liberating up cash for Sasaki might require groups to make some late adjustments to their plans.
Adding to the emotions of potential parity are the feedback Wolfe made about Sasaki probably preferring a small- or mid-market workforce. That might open the door to all 30 golf equipment, although there are some executives with smaller-revenue groups who consider the pool of actual candidates will finally shrink down largely to larger market golf equipment on the coast.
Reality test: Why wouldn’t some groups be in?
OK, so if all 30 groups aren’t realistically going to be within the combine, why would some groups have an higher hand?
Market and income will matter when it comes to how a lot Sasaki will need to take into account who can supply one of the best extension down the road. That’s not one thing that may be mentioned now, nevertheless it doesn’t take magical powers to grasp which groups have the monetary wherewithal to offer one of the best phrases a yr or two down the road.
Beyond the cash, there are the variables Wolfe talked about that come into play, together with the half a couple of smaller or mid-market being extra appropriate for Sasaki’s character and his curiosity in groups who do nicely working with pitchers. The alternative to win additionally must be a part of the equation, proper?
One unknown variable lies inside Sasaki himself. Does he need to be “the person” or is he keen, or does he want, to be within the shadow of others? The make-up of groups’ rosters might come into play consequently.
What does the business suppose will occur?
MLB Pipeline is at the moment within the technique of polling entrance places of work for all 30 groups within the annual MLB Pipeline Executive Survey. As a part of the questionnaire, executives have been requested who they thought was the favourite to signal Sasaki. It must be famous that lots of the responses got here earlier than the Wolfe media session, however two groups acquired practically the entire votes:
The Giants and Rangers every acquired one vote. These groups all test among the doable bins. The Dodgers have a observe document of spending massive for elite expertise, and so they presumably would have the ability to take action to supply Sasaki an extension if his pitching interprets to MLB as most count on it is going to. They’ve additionally been capable of get essentially the most out of pitchers, and there’s the truth that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto would welcome Sasaki with open arms.
The Padres is also an excellent match for lots of the similar causes, plus they’re extra within the “mid-market” bucket. It’s additionally been reported that Sasaki may be very shut with Yu Darvish, and it’s anticipated that he’ll play some position in convincing Sasaki to go to San Diego. Having Hideo Nomo within the group as a particular assistant does not harm, both.
The Rangers have been the workforce to initially signal Darvish again in 2012, and so they’ve had different successes with Japanese pitchers like Koji Uehara. It’s a giant market, however not fairly the identical highlight, and this may be a scenario the place Sasaki would turn into the headliner within the rotation instantly.
The Giants don’t have the identical sort of historical past with Japanese gamers, however the addition of Sasaki would assist them vault proper again into rivalry within the National League West and president of baseball operations Buster Posey not too long ago talked about how excited they’d be so as to add his expertise to the highest of the rotation.
What different groups are critical contenders?
There’s one different workforce out west that may very well be a really intriguing “darkish horse” candidate: the Seattle Mariners. They positively match the smaller market invoice and have a workforce poised to compete for the American League West crown, with the addition of Sasaki prone to make them clear favorites. The Mariners have executed spectacular work with their arms and would like to see Sasaki be a part of younger hurlers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller in what’s already maybe the deepest rotation in baseball. Perhaps that may intensify talks a couple of Luis Castillo commerce that was already buzzing in and across the Winter Meetings. And Ichiro may very well be an excellent salesman.
Let’s not ignore groups not on the West Coast totally. There are some who suppose the Cubs are critical gamers right here, and after buying Kyle Tucker from the Astros, they clearly are considering they will contend within the extensive open NL Central. Plus they at the moment have Shota Imanaga within the rotation and Seiya Suzuki within the lineup.
In the AL, the Red Sox are very critical about making a pitch to the Sasaki workforce. The important promoting level may be the historical past of Japanese pitchers having success and optimistic experiences enjoying in Boston: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Uehara and Junichi Tazawa. They have a powerful pitching improvement program and it definitely doesn’t harm when the final supervisor, Craig Breslow, can converse on to it (versus simply handing it off to “the specialists”). Breslow additionally personally scouted Sasaki for one in every of his begins in Japan in September.
Some see the Yankees and Mets as underdogs due to Wolfe’s feedback about smaller markets, however it will be a mistake to depend out both New York workforce. The Mets have created a variety of buzz following their 2024 playoff run by signing Juan Soto, and Kodai Senga’s profitable transition from the Japanese professional ranks to MLB with the membership might make their supply extra interesting. The Yankees — who even have a historical past of profitable with gamers from Japan (Hideki Matsui, Ichiro Suzuki and Masahiro Tanaka) — can level to a rotation the place Sasaki might be a part of Gerrit Cole and Max Fried.
The Phillies and Blue Jays could look like they’re on the skin wanting in, however consider when lists have been made about which groups have been within the operating to signal Ohtani in 2017, the Angels by no means got here up. The Phillies present a profitable atmosphere and a strong pitching workers. They’ve by no means signed a Japanese participant, however they did reportedly make a critical run at Yamamoto, providing him extra money than the Dodgers did. Toronto may be much more of an extended shot given their lack of postseason success and pitching improvement, however the Blue Jays are anticipated to make a robust play, maybe leaning on the dearth of media glare north of the border.
