Heading into the 2024 FCS playoffs, the highest 4 groups within the nation have been fairly clear. Not together with video games towards FBS opponents or one another, Montana State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State and South Dakota all went unbeaten this season. They’ve all handled numerous downs and (largely) ups in type, however they have been all closely favored to change into semifinalists, they usually have all performed precisely that.
With all of the fats trimmed, nonetheless, we now get to the meat. Only two of those 4 groups will play for the nationwide title in January. It’s time to get rid of a pair.
The semifinals provide us a Dakota Marker rematch to start out — it is the sixth time in 13 years that North Dakota State and South Dakota State have met within the playoffs — adopted by a matchup between the subdivision’s solely unbeaten staff (Montana State) and, in South Dakota, the closest factor to an upstart. Weather most likely will not be a problem, as NDSU performs in a dome and temperatures shall be within the 40s (disappointingly) in Bozeman. But we ought to be in for a deal with.
Updated projections
When the playoffs began, these groups already had a mixed 86.5% likelihood of profitable the title, per SP+, with the opposite 20 groups combining for simply 13.5%. So of the remaining semifinalists, nobody’s odds have modified considerably.
South Dakota State’s odds have improved probably the most, primarily as a result of it appears the Jackrabbits themselves have improved probably the most in current weeks. They’ve overachieved towards SP+ projections by a mean of 13.9 factors over the previous 5 video games.
After dropping so many big-time gamers from an all-time nice 2023 staff, it took Jimmy Rogers’ SDSU squad a short time to seek out fifth gear, but when final week’s 55-14 romp over Incarnate Word is any indication, they’ve discovered it. Each of those 4 semifinalists is in good type for the time being, however SDSU and MSU have been exceeding projections probably the most of late.
Last week
Our 4 semifinalists received their quarterfinal video games by a mean of 43-15. In reality, they led by double digits for a mixed 136.2 of their video games’ 240 minutes. Only South Dakota discovered itself with any form of second-half anxiousness, and that was towards the fifth-best staff in FCS, UC Davis.
Montana State was tied 10-10 late within the second quarter of a Friday evening rematch with Idaho. But the Bobcats rapidly discovered their knockout punch with a 28-0 run over about 9 minutes and cruised 52-19. Quarterback Tommy Mellott threw 18 passes for 174 yards, rushed 14 instances for 131 yards and produced three mixed touchdowns. Adam Jones, in the meantime, did the soiled work between the tackles, speeding 23 instances for 95 yards and 4 scores. The MSU protection bought hit for 407 yards by a robust Idaho offense, however three sacks and two takeaways helped flip the sport right into a blowout.
SDSU landed the knockout blow even quicker. Two 35-yard Mark Gronowski-to-Griffin Wilde landing passes put the Jackrabbits up 14-0 early within the second quarter, and Incarnate Word by no means bought nearer. A 59-yard Gronowski go to David Alpers made it 38-0 early within the second half earlier than UIW lastly bought on the board. The Jacks sacked Zach Calzada thrice and picked him off as soon as, and the trio of Amar Johnson, Kirby Vorhees and Chase Mason rushed 29 instances for 235 yards.
Both NDSU and South Dakota needed to work a bit longer towards Mercer and UC Davis, respectively. Cam Miller and Bryce Lance related for a pair of landing passes to place NDSU up 14-0 after simply 5 minutes, however the Bison led by solely 17 till a late Barika Kpeenu landing made the ultimate rating 31-7. South Dakota, in the meantime, led many of the manner however held only a 28-21 benefit halfway by the fourth quarter earlier than placing away a 35-21 win with a seven-play, 75-yard TD drive.
Offensive SP+ rankings: NDSU second, SDSU third
First-team all-conference picks (offense): SDSU — RB Amar Johnson (5-foot-10, 200 lbs., Sr.), RG Evan Beerntsen (6-foot-4, 300 lbs., Sr.), C Gus Miller (6-foot-3, 295 lbs., Sr.), APB Angel Johnson (5-foot-9, 195 lbs., Jr.); NDSU — QB Cam Miller (6-foot-1, 212 lbs., Sr., MVFC offensive participant of the yr), WR Bryce Lance (6-foot-3, 204 lbs., Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-foot-7, 305 lbs., Sr.), LT Grey Zabel (6-foot-6, 305 lbs., Sr.)
Defensive SP+ rankings: SDSU first, NDSU sixth
First-team all-conference picks (protection): SDSU — DT Jarod DePriest (6-foot-5, 285 lbs., Sr.), LB Adam Bock (6-foot-1, 225 lbs., Sr.), LB/NB Caleb Francl (6-foot-1, 195 lbs., Sr), CB Dalys Beanum (6-foot-1, 200 lbs., Sr.), FS Tucker Large (5-foot-11, 185 lbs., Jr.); NDSU — DT Eli Mostaert (6-foot-3, 289 lbs., Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-foot-1, 220 lbs., Jr.)
North Dakota State went nearly 5 calendar years with out beating its Dakota Marker rival. The Bison misplaced 5 in a row to the Jacks, together with a 45-21 pummeling in 2022’s nationwide title sport, however they lastly pulled one again with a 13-9 win Oct. 19. Cam Miller and RaJa Nelson related for landing passes of 18 and 20 yards, the second of which got here with simply 1:49 remaining in regulation. SDSU had slight benefits by way of yardage (333-275) and yards per play (5.0-4.7), however 4 journeys inside NDSU’s 40 produced only one landing, and a late Logan Kopp interception sealed the Bison win.
It was a pleasant affirmation sport for NDSU, and the Bison continued to point out loads of upside of their six video games since. They’ve scored a minimum of 28 factors in all six of these video games (and a minimum of 42 4 instances), they usually’ve held opponents to 21 or fewer 4 instances. There have been hints of vulnerability of late, although. They fell 29-28 at South Dakota to complete the common season — no disgrace there, clearly — and allowed 31 factors in a second-round win over Abilene Christian. They have been by no means in peril towards Mercer, however they suffered sufficient unfavourable performs that they could not absolutely push the sport into garbage-time mode for some time both.
None of this is able to be a lot of a priority — oh no, they’ve solely received playoff video games by 20 and 24 factors! — if the Bison weren’t about to play an absolute juggernaut. After the loss to NDSU, SDSU gutted out an additional time win over South Dakota, then hit the accelerator. They’ve received their previous six video games by a mean of 44-11, with Gronowski finishing 59% of his passes at 17.7 yards per completion with 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Meanwhile, Amar Johnson has averaged 7.5 yards per carry with six TDs on this span whereas receiver Griffin Wilde has caught 22 passes for 521 yards and 6 scores. No. 2 RB Angel Johnson, one in every of FCS’ higher kickoff returners, missed final week with harm, and the Jacks did not miss a beat. They bought a more durable playoff draw than NDSU however nonetheless beat Montana and UIW by a mixed 90-32.
Against NDSU the primary time, Amar and Angel Johnson managed simply 58 yards in 18 carries, and Gronowski averaged simply 6.9 yards per completion. Each of those groups can normally rely on dominating the road of scrimmage in practically each sport it performs, however the features are a lot smaller towards one another. SDSU discovered some success with Gronowski preserving the ball (13 carries, 77 yards) and bought a 66-yard burst from change-of-pace quarterback Chase Mason. But even with SDSU’s improved type, it is truthful to imagine that this sport, just like the groups’ first 2024 assembly, shall be outlined extra by explosions of the nice and unhealthy form, not regular dominance within the trenches.
ESPN BET projection: SDSU 24.0, NDSU 22.5 (SDSU -1.5, over/below 46.5) SP+ projection: SDSU 24.9, NDSU 24.6
Offensive SP+ rankings: MSU first, USD fourth
First-team all-conference picks (offense): USD – RB Charles Pierre Jr. (5-foot-10, 205 lbs., So.), FB Travis Theis (5-foot-11, 215 lbs., Sr.), TE JJ Galbreath (6-foot-4, 240 lbs., Sr.), C Joey Lombard (6-foot-5, 305 lbs., Sr.); MSU – QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-foot-11, 210 lbs., So.), FB Rohan Jones (6-foot-3, 235 lbs., Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-foot-4, 300 lbs., Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-foot-5, 310 lbs., So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-foot-9, 175 lbs., So.)
Defensive SP+ rankings: MSU second, USD fifth
First-team all-conference picks (protection): USD – Edge Mi’Quise Grace (6-foot-4, 255 lbs., So., MVFC defensive participant of the yr), DE Nick Gaes (6-foot-4, 275 lbs., Sr.), S Dennis Shorter (5-foot-10, 195 lbs., Sr.); MSU – Edge Brody Grebe (6-foot-3, 250 lbs., Sr.), LB McCade O’Reilly (6-foot-0, 220 lbs., Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-foot-1, 210 lbs., Sr.)
NDSU and SDSU will meet for the 118th time within the first semifinal; Montana State and South Dakota will meet for simply the third time within the second. MSU took each ends of a home-and-home collection in 2008-09, South Dakota’s first two seasons in FCS, and that was it.
It was a gradual rising course of for USD: The Yotes went 28-50 of their first seven FCS seasons earlier than Bob Nielson took over, and whereas the two-time Division II-winning coach had them within the playoffs in his second season (2017), they have been up and down, and he entered 2023 simply 32-42 total. His protection was set with coordinator Travis Johansen, however when he pulled offensive coordinator Josh Davis over from SDSU in 2023, he noticed instant payoff.
Davis inherited an offense that had averaged 16.0 factors per sport and improved it to 24.0 in 2023 and 37.2 in 2024. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have mixed for two,249 speeding yards and 33 TDs, and Aidan Bouman is finishing 69% of his passes at 14.0 yards per completion. On the defensive aspect the Coyotes are permitting 16.6 factors per sport thanks partially to the Missouri Valley’s greatest defensive participant, breakout star Mi’Quise Grace. Grace has racked up 12.5 tackles for loss in his previous seven video games, and he has saved a few of his greatest performances for the most important opponents: Against Wisconsin, SDSU and NDSU, he had 17 tackles, 6 TFLs and 4 sacks. This is a somewhat weakness-free staff. They’ve even gotten three return scores from particular groups.
South Dakota narrowly beat NDSU and narrowly misplaced to SDSU. Now the Yotes full the set by enjoying the opposite high staff. We’ll discover out if Bobcat Stadium is a bridge too far. Montana State has received 34 of its previous 35 video games there and proved once more towards Idaho final Friday simply how a lot issues can snowball on guests. They have probably the most distinctive quarterbacks you will ever see: In simply over three full seasons in Bozeman (he performed simply three video games in 2023 earlier than harm), Tommy Mellott has thrown for greater than 5,000 yards and rushed for greater than 3,000. He runs as if he weighs excess of 208 kilos, and he has accomplished 70% of his passes for two,430 yards, 28 touchdowns and simply 2 INTs. And he has bought a lot assistance on this offense, from backs Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones (mixed: 2,592 yards from scrimmage and 29 TDs), to a trio of go catchers with 450-plus yards, to an offensive line that is as large and imply as any in FCS.
The offense provides the protection loads of margin for error, nevertheless it’s relentless in its personal proper, with 23 gamers having recorded a minimum of one TFL (and three with a minimum of 8.5) and two masterful go rushers in Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV. Including sacks as go makes an attempt, the Bobcats permit 4.8 yards per go try and 4.6 yards per rush.
Head coach Brent Vigen has been biding his time and ready for the breakthrough that appears to have are available 2024. MSU has been one of the best staff in FCS from begin to end. But ending with wins over a pair of Dakota groups goes to require one thing near perfection.
ESPN BET projection: MSU 32.25, USD 24.25 (MSU -8, over/below 56.5) SP+ projection: MSU 29.7, USD 21.2
