In a current Foreign Policy article, Steven Cook and I highlighted how Turkey could also be overplaying its hand in Syria. With occasions evolving quickly, it appears that evidently Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now goals to dominate Syria’s political future, sidelining each Moscow and Tehran.
To say Erdogan is “enjoying with fireplace” is an understatement. His maneuvers ought to deeply concern the incoming Trump administration, as Erdogan will probably pitch Turkey as the answer to Syria’s woes. However, permitting Turkey unchecked affect in a post-Assad Syria dangers destabilizing the area additional.
Turkey’s Backing of HTS
Ankara seems to be grooming Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as Syria’s new political order.
Turkey portrays HTS as able to establishing a bureaucratic state that brings regulation and order whereas serving Syria’s various inhabitants. This probably explains Turkey’s supply of navy help to HTS—an alarming gesture from a NATO member.
HTS, nonetheless, stays a jihadist group rooted in Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It celebrated Hamas’ October 7 assaults on Israel, and its management nonetheless threatens to “conquer Jerusalem.”
HTS chief Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani sends contradictory messages. He guarantees to guard minority rights and guarantee Syrians’ security whereas his justice chief insists on implementing Sharia regulation and barring ladies from judicial roles. Erdogan believes he can management Jawlani and mould HTS to his imaginative and prescient, however his final aim stays clear: destroying the Kurdish autonomous zone in northern Syria. This zone, led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and guarded by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has been falsely labeled by Erdogan as a risk to Turkey as a consequence of hyperlinks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). While PKK affiliations exist, the PYD and SDF have centered solely on combating ISIS and making a secure house for Syrian Kurds—not threatening Turkey.
Erdogan’s Domestic Agenda
Erdogan’s obsession with dismantling the Kurdish zone serves a home objective. By portraying a tricky stance on terrorism, he distracts Turkish residents from his administration’s financial failures. Reports recommend that Turkey already has 16,000–18,000 troops in Syria and is mobilizing alongside the border close to Kobane, poised to remove SDF and PYD management. Erdogan probably envisions establishing a buffer zone populated with Syrian refugees at the moment in Turkey.
Ignoring Moscow and Tehran
Erdogan’s confidence stems from his perception that he has outmaneuvered Russia and Iran. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan not too long ago revealed that Erdogan warned Moscow and Tehran in opposition to backing Assad, claiming their trigger was misplaced. Assad’s subsequent flight to Russia underscores Erdogan’s rising leverage. Emboldened, Erdogan appears decided to resolve Syria’s future with out severe regard for the pursuits of Russia, Iran, and even the United States.
What Will Trump Do?
The crucial query stays: how will President-elect Trump reply?
Trump’s current comment about Erdogan’s “unfriendly takeover” may very well be interpreted in a number of methods. He would possibly ignore Syria totally as a part of his “America First” disengagement coverage, or he might use Syria as leverage in opposition to Russia and Iran to resolve the Ukraine battle and curb Israel-Iran tensions. Either situation leaves Erdogan free to pursue his ambitions, as Washington and different powers stay distracted.
Critical Considerations
Despite Erdogan’s momentum, there are basic points that can’t be ignored:
HTS’ Jihadist Roots
HTS has deep ties to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Celebrating HTS as a nationwide liberation drive is dangerously naïve. How can an extremist group that brazenly threatens regional stability govern a pluralistic Syria?
Abandoning Syria’s Kurds
Should the U.S. and the West abandon their Kurdish allies in favor of Erdogan’s imaginative and prescient? Labeling the PYD and SDF as “terrorists,” as Erdogan does, is disingenuous. A simple settlement on safety ensures between Erdogan and the PYD management might handle Turkey’s issues.
Long-term Stability
Excluding the Kurds from Syria’s future ensures instability. A Turkish battle on the SDF wouldn’t solely destabilize the area but additionally create a gap for ISIS to regroup and launch a brand new marketing campaign to determine its Caliphate.
Erdogan could consider he holds all of the playing cards, however his aggressive technique carries immense dangers—not only for Syria however for the whole area. Ignoring these risks might result in long-term penalties which can be unattainable to reverse.
About the Author:
Sinan Ciddi is a Senior Fellow on Turkey on the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in Washington DC and an Associate Professor of Security Studies on the Marine Corps University’s Command and Staff College. You can comply with him on X @SinanCiddi
