WASHINGTON — House Speaker Mike Johnson is laying out a extremely bold technique to reply President-elect Donald Trump’s call to pass his agenda in “one massive, lovely invoice” — a plan that can check the bounds of his wafer-thin Republican majority.
Johnson, R-La., stated Sunday that the party-line bill will embrace provisions about border safety, power, manufacturing and tax coverage. He additionally referred to as for extending the debt ceiling in the identical invoice and passing it out of the House as early as the primary week of April.
That is an exceptionally tall order for a tiny House majority of 219-215 that’s anticipated to shrink even additional within the coming months as two GOP members resign to affix the Trump administration. When that occurs, Johnson gained’t have the ability to lose a single vote with no need assist from Democrats till the seats are stuffed.
Republicans plan to make use of the budget “reconciliation” process to go the huge Trump agenda bundle. That permits them to bypass the 60-vote threshold within the Senate, the place Republicans have 53 seats — and after Jan. 20, a tiebreaking vote from incoming Vice President JD Vance — and may reduce Democrats out of the method.
One invoice or two?
Key senators, together with Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., have been pushing to break it up into two bills — permitting Republicans to attain a fast victory on border funding and take a while to craft a second tax invoice.
But Johnson and Trump say they like a single bundle.
“The plan within the House has been one invoice. We met for 2 days over the weekend — two full days of debate and strategizing with that in thoughts. And in order that’s our assumption proper now,” Johnson instructed reporters Monday. “The Senate has slightly totally different opinion and perspective on reconciliation and what the wisest technique is than the House. And that’s OK; that’s a part of this course of.
“We are going to get this mission completed,” he stated.
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., instructed NBC News that renewing Trump’s tax cuts, trillions of {dollars} of which expire on the finish of this yr, is the harder ask.
“If we’re going to do the tax facet within the first invoice, we’re going to have to essentially saddle up and trip. Because that’s going to be, clearly, probably the most sophisticated half,” Kennedy stated Monday before Congress certified Trump’s election win. “Ironically, the immigration half, the border safety, might be going to be the simplest factor that we’ll deal with.”
To appease lawmakers and Trump allies who wish to cope with the border instantly, House and Senate Republicans will convey a collection of immigration and border safety payments up for votes within the coming weeks, in accordance with two individuals with information of the plans.
“We’ve obtained six months to a yr to display to the American people who we’re going to convey change,” Kennedy stated. “Now, whether or not you do it in a single invoice or two payments, frankly, I can educate that spherical or flat. There are benefits and downsides to each.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the chair of the Budget Committee, which can oversee the Senate course of, warned in opposition to a one-bill technique.
“I’m very anxious,” he stated Sunday on Fox News. “If we don’t put border first and get it executed, it’s going to be a nightmare for our nationwide safety. … If you maintain border safety hostage to get tax cuts, you’re taking part in Russian roulette with our nationwide safety.”
Thune additionally weighed in Monday, saying Republicans are “working by” proceed when he was requested about one versus two payments.
“The course of points listed here are quite a bit much less essential than the outcomes,” he instructed reporters.
House Ways & Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., stated Trump’s desire for a single invoice means the controversy is settled.
“The House is doing one invoice,” he stated. “It has been determined.”
Limitations on the invoice
The 50-vote reconciliation course of means the bundle should observe strict guidelines and be restricted to issues involving taxes and spending. Under what’s referred to as the “Byrd Rule” (named for late Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va.), senators from both celebration can problem elements of a reconciliation invoice that don’t meet these standards. The Senate parliamentarian should rule whether or not these provisions are actually about taxes and spending or not — and if not, they’re stripped out.
The solely solution to keep away from that’s to overrule the parliamentarian, which even some hard-line rank-and-file Republicans are already saying they like to not do.
“We’re fairly dedicated to preserving the filibuster, and that’s sort of like blowing up the filibuster,” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., a Trump ally, stated final month, including that Republicans “don’t want to alter coverage” to attain their targets on the border.
A severe complication is Johnson’s name to make use of the party-line invoice to lift the debt ceiling, which Congress might want to do that yr to forestall an economically calamitous default on U.S. obligations. It’s a difficulty many Republicans hate to cope with, normally requiring Democratic votes, and Johnson’s majority contains loads of members who’ve by no means voted to boost the nation’s borrowing restrict.
“I don’t know what quantity he’s speaking about or what timeframe, however in case you’re going to extend the debt ceiling, you want actual cuts. That’s it. It’s that easy,” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, stated in an interview Monday.
“We suck at chopping. If we might reduce 12 cents I’d freaking throw a God-darn parade,” he stated, earlier than making clear he was joking concerning the latter.
Roy declined to determine a greenback quantity. “We want significant, vital cuts. I wouldn’t wish to pre-negotiate that,” he stated, making it clear that “we have to lower deficits.”
“The entire level of reconciliation is to get to deficit neutrality,” he added.
That might be very troublesome to attain in a invoice that might be seemingly so as to add trillions of {dollars} to the long-term debt by extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts earlier than they expire on the finish of this yr. Trump can also be calling on Congress to connect his “no tax on tips” proposal, which is projected to extend the price of the bundle.
There are different potential nuisances that Republicans might encounter. An enormous bundle goes in opposition to perennial GOP calls for to legislate in smaller, single-subject payments. And an enterprise of such magnitude must be negotiated by celebration leaders, which steadily raises hackles amongst conservatives who say laws ought to be developed from the underside up on the committee stage.
In a Truth Social publish Sunday night time, Trump referred to as for Congress to advance his agenda in “one highly effective Bill.” But on Hugh Hewitt’s radio present Monday, he stored the door ajar to the two-bill technique, saying he sees some great benefits of it.
“I favor one invoice. I additionally wish to get all the things handed. And you understand, there are some people who don’t essentially agree with it. So I’m open to that, additionally,” Trump stated. “My desire is one massive, as I say, one massive, lovely invoice. Now, to do this takes longer. You know, to submit it takes longer, really. But, so it’s an extended course of. I might say I’d reside with that. … To me, it simply is a cleaner, it’s cleaner. It’s nicer. Now, with that being stated, we’d get some border work executed slightly bit earlier, et cetera, et cetera.”
Kennedy stated Trump and Republicans have to make that call shortly and get to work.
“I simply wish to know what the president thinks. I simply wish to have an settlement. Again, I’m not wedded to both one invoice or two payments,” he stated. “I simply assume we have to all get in the identical room and say, OK, right here’s our sport plan. And some might be completely satisfied, some might be unhappy. Because there’s some people who really feel strongly within the Senate that we ought to separate them up. But I perceive the House’s place, too. We can in all probability clear numerous that up with the president with a telephone name.”
