The wild-card playoff round for the 2024 NFL season has six nice matchups, and we’ve you coated with what you’ll want to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters deliver us the largest keys to all six video games, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies a key matchup X issue to look at, and employees author Kevin Seifert tells us what to know concerning the officiating. The ESPN Research staff additionally gives an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection. Finally, three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Eric Moody and Walder — give us ultimate rating picks for each sport.
Everything you wish to know is right here in a single spot that can assist you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football. Let’s get into the complete wild-card slate, together with an AFC North-rival showdown between the Steelers and Ravens and the Packers’ go to to Philly.
Jump to a matchup:
LAC-HOU | PIT-BAL | DEN-BUF
GB-PHI | WSH-TB | MIN-LAR
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (42.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to look at: Quarterback Justin Herbert has three interceptions this season, the fewest within the NFL, whereas the Texans’ protection has the second-most interceptions (19). It would be the third playoff sport since 2000 between an offense with the fewest interceptions and a protection with essentially the most or second-most interceptions. Can Houston drive Herbert into errors and turnovers? — Kris Rhim
Texans storyline to look at: Both defenses are among the many greatest within the league at creating havoc for quarterbacks. The Texans enable the league’s lowest completion proportion (58.8%), and the Chargers sit at 65% (eleventh lowest). On the flip aspect, C.J. Stroud and Herbert are vulnerable to being taken down as a result of their safety, as each quarterbacks rank high 4 in unblocked pressures. The winner of this sport will likely be whichever staff’s protection can persistently generate strain with occasional free rushers. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: With a win Saturday, the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh would turn out to be the second head coach in NFL historical past to win a playoff sport in his first season with two totally different groups. Pete Carroll did it with the 2010 Seahawks and 1997 Patriots. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Texans will fail to attain a landing. Since Week 9 (their first sport after dropping vast receiver Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL), the Texans ranked twenty seventh in offensive EPA per play. They misplaced receiver Tank Dell late within the season to a knee injury, too. Now, towards the No. 1 scoring protection, I feel they’re going to wrestle. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Chargers security Derwin James Jr. He led all defensive backs with 5.5 sacks, and he added 15 pressures. He’s a pure disruptor with the bodily instruments to win versus operating backs in safety. Plus, the Chargers can blitz him on early downs to affect the Texans’ zone run sport with Joe Mixon. — Bowen
Betting nugget: Eleven of the Texans’ 17 video games this season went below the entire, which is tied with the Giants for the best below fee within the NFL. Unders have been 7-1 in Houston house contests in 2024. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Land Clark’s regular-season crew threw the fifth-fewest flags within the NFL (13.8 per sport) and was significantly stingy when it got here to defensive holding (5, fewest within the league). The Chargers will likely be comfortable to listen to that after getting flagged extra occasions for defensive holding (10) than all however one staff within the league. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Chargers 28, Texans 20
Moody’s choose: Chargers 27, Texans 23
Walder’s choose: Chargers 20, Texans 9
FPI prediction: LAC, 52.8% (by a median of 0.9 factors)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: BAL -9.5 (43.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to look at: With his offense averaging 14 factors and 258.8 yards per sport in a four-game dropping streak, Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith stated this can be a leave-no-stone-unturned type of game. That may imply mixing issues up and utilizing extra of quarterback Justin Fields, who hasn’t taken a snap since an belly harm in Week 15 towards Philadelphia. Fields stated he is wholesome and able to do no matter is requested of him. The Steelers’ offense wants essentially the most assistance on first down, the place it ranks at or close to the underside of the league in yards (4.5, final), success fee (37%, thirty first) and QBR (40, twenty ninth). — Brooke Pryor
Ravens storyline to look at: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is seeking to overcome his playoff struggles towards a Steelers protection that has been faltering. Jackson is 2-4 within the postseason, recording six interceptions and three misplaced fumbles. He has had a historical past of turning the ball over versus Pittsburgh particularly, however the Steelers’ protection has pale by its present four-game dropping streak, permitting 258.5 passing yards (tied for the fourth most within the league throughout that span). — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Steelers operating again Najee Harris has averaged 4.0 yards per rush this season, which is thirty fifth out of 44 certified gamers. His minus-0.01 yards per rush gained over expectation ranks thirty first within the NFL, in accordance with NFL Next Gen Stats. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens tight finish Mark Andrews will catch six or extra passes, matching or surpassing a season excessive. After his sluggish utilization to start out the season, Andrews has run a route on a better proportion of Ravens go performs. His superior metrics are additionally nonetheless robust. Andrews has an 80 open score this season, narrowly beating out George Kittle for the best amongst tight ends (by way of ESPN’s receiver scores). — Walder
Matchup X issue: Ravens exterior linebacker Kyle Van Noy. The Ravens will scheme matchups for Van Noy off twists and stunts to create pocket disruption. He had 12.5 sacks and 45 pressures on the season, and he is a straightforward match for the Ravens’ a number of fronts as a result of his capability to affect and arrange safety. — Bowen
1:49
Why Stephen A. has doubts in Lamar Jackson’s postseason talents
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky debate on their confidence ranges in Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens heading into the playoffs.
Betting nugget: Six of the previous seven Steelers street video games have gone over the entire. Five of the Ravens’ previous six house video games have gone over the entire. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Alex Kemp’s regular-season crew threw 59 flags for offensive holding, tied for essentially the most within the NFL. That’s an particularly notable quantity for the Ravens, who have been flagged for the third-most offensive holding penalties within the common season (29). The Steelers acquired 18 such penalties, tied for 18th within the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Ravens 30, Steelers 24
Moody’s choose: Ravens 28, Steelers, 19
Walder’s choose: Ravens 27, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 72.2% (by a median of 9.0 factors)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN BET: BUF -8 (47.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to look at: The Broncos, who ended an eight-year playoff drought, get one other crack at one of many AFC’s high quarterbacks. The Broncos did not beat Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes (he did not begin final week’s sport), Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert this season. Now, they get Josh Allen, who has as many dashing touchdowns himself (12) because the Broncos do as a staff. The Broncos must restrict Allen from what they name “the second act” performs — the completions and runs after his preliminary reads are taken away. — Jeff Legwold
Bills storyline to look at: The Bills have thrived within the wild-card spherical, going 4-1 with Allen beginning. The large query for this staff going into the playoffs, nevertheless, is whether or not the protection can get off the sector. The Bills’ protection is the fourth worst in third-down conversion proportion allowed (43.8%), and taking down the quarterback has been a difficulty (39 sacks, tied for 18th). On the opposite aspect, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has averted sacks (24, tied for third fewest). “[Nix] appears extraordinarily poised for a younger quarterback, and I’ve been very impressed together with his mobility, his capability to increase performs,” Bills coach Sean McDermott stated. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills have turned over the ball solely eight occasions within the common season, which is tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest since turnovers have been first tracked in 1933. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Allen will convert a minimum of 5 first downs or rating a landing together with his legs. Cornerback Pat Surtain II may have the ability to shut down a receiver on most performs, however Allen has loads of different methods to harm a protection. I count on him to scramble lots Sunday regardless of the Broncos permitting the third-least dashing yards per sport (96.4). — Walder
Matchup X issue: Broncos vast receiver Courtland Sutton. The Broncos can create open voids for Sutton to run the deep in-breaking ideas towards a Bills protection that performed zone protection on greater than 68% of opponent dropbacks. Sutton had 32 receptions of 15 or extra yards this season, and the Broncos will want these forms of performs to upset the Bills. — Bowen
Betting nugget: Over the previous 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 towards the unfold (ATS) in street playoff video games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Bill Vinovich’s regular-season crews are traditionally one of many stingiest within the NFL, and 2024 was no exception. His crew averaged a league-low 12.9 flags per sport. That’s excellent news for each groups. The Bills (18th) and Broncos (twenty first) ranked within the higher half of the NFL in whole flags this season. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Bills 28, Broncos 21
Moody’s choose: Broncos 27, Bills 24
Walder’s choose: Bills 28, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 68.1% (by a median of seven.1 factors)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -4.5 (45.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to look at: The Packers completed with their highest defensive rating (fifth) since their Super Bowl-winning season of 2010, however they’ve had bother with Eagles operating again Saquon Barkley earlier than. Including the 2024 season opener, Barkley has three straight video games towards the Packers with a minimum of 100 scrimmage yards and a landing — tied for the longest streak by any participant towards Green Bay. — Rob Demovsky
Eagles storyline to look at: Quarterback Jalen Hurts continues to progress by concussion protocol and is anticipated to play barring a setback. The query then turns into whether or not the passing offense can get right into a rhythm early with Hurts taking part in in his first sport since Dec. 22. Slow begins have been a theme for the Eagles this season, significantly early on, as they failed to attain within the first quarter 10 occasions. Early manufacturing has improved of late, however their progress will likely be examined towards a staff that has allowed simply 19.9 factors per sport, the sixth-best mark within the NFL. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Packers scored 30-plus factors in 5 of their seven ultimate video games, together with 5 straight contests in Weeks 12 by 16. That’s the second-longest streak in franchise historical past after a seven-game streak in 1963. — ESPN Research
1:55
Sal Pal: All smiles in Philly with Hurts’ return to follow
Sal Paolantonio experiences on Jalen Hurts’ harm standing as he returned to follow for the Eagles.
Bold prediction: Eagles defensive sort out Jalen Carter will bat a go, and it is going to be intercepted. Carter recorded six batted passes this season, second most within the NFL, and he’ll be going through solely a median pass-blocking guard in Sean Rhyan. Expect him to get a hand on certainly one of Jordan Love‘s throws Sunday. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper has the second-level vary to trace the ball service on the perimeters, and he can patrol the intermediate home windows in protection. If the Packers wish to get a win in Philly this weekend, he might want to play an affect function to restrict Barkley and clog the center of the sector within the go sport. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 9-3 ATS of their previous 12 video games. They have coated in three straight house video games. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen’s regular-season crew threw the third-fewest flags per sport (13.4). But Allen referred to as 10 penalties for roughing the passer, the second most within the league. That’s excellent news for the safety of Hurts and Love, who have been the beneficiaries of a mixed three penalties for roughing the passer within the common season. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Eagles 34, Packers 28
Moody’s choose: Eagles 31, Packers 21
Walder’s choose: Eagles 24, Packers 21
FPI prediction: PHI, 51.2% (by a median of 0.4 factors)
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -3 (50.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to look at: Washington’s protection has improved since going through Tampa Bay within the season opener. After three video games, the Commanders ranked twenty ninth in factors allowed per sport (29.3). But from Weeks 4 by 18, Washington ranked twelfth in scoring (21.6 factors per sport) and fourth in whole yards (316.1). The Bucs will current a problem due to their improved run sport with rookie Bucky Irving; they rank second within the NFL over the previous seven weeks in dashing yards per sport (183.3). Washington’s protection ranks thirtieth towards the run, permitting 137.5 dashing yards per sport. — John Keim
Buccaneers storyline to look at: The Bucs have seen quarterback Jayden Daniels take off since their Week 1 victory, when he rushed for 2 touchdowns. Still, they really feel they’re extra geared up to cease Daniels this go-around. “Early within the season, we have been falling brief just a little bit on containment and never with the ability to plaster as quarterbacks scramble,” cornerback Zyon McCollum stated. “From the D-line right down to the DBs, we have carried out a extremely good job at focusing in and homing in on that sort of quarterback motion.” In Weeks 1 by 9, they have been giving up 5.0 yards per rush to opposing QBs (twenty second within the league). That quantity has dropped to three.2 (third greatest). — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Since the wild card was launched in 1978, this matchup will mark the fourth occasion of two groups assembly within the wild-card spherical after averaging 28-plus factors per sport within the common season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Daniels will rush for 70 or extra yards. Coach Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers like to blitz, bringing additional warmth 36% of the time. That offers them apparent benefits, however no quarterback scrambles at a better fee towards the blitz than Daniels. His common yardage on scrambles will increase from 7.2 on common performs to 10.7 towards the blitz. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Buccaneers vast receiver Jalen McMillan. He has seen a bump in goal quantity and extra landing manufacturing down the stretch. McMillan has a minimum of one landing reception in every of his previous 5 video games, and he brings a vertical stretch aspect to this offense. Working reverse Mike Evans, McMillan can win his matchups towards Washington’s different choices within the secondary. — Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Buccaneers
Betting nugget: Four straight Buccaneers video games have gone over the entire. Overs are 12-5 in Buccaneers video games this season, together with 11-3 of their previous 14. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Craig Wrolstad’s regular-season crew threw the second-most flags per sport within the NFL (18). But he referred to as solely 4 for roughing the passer, which is nice information for each groups on this sport. They every dedicated six roughing the passer fouls, tied for third most within the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Commanders 33, Buccaneers 30
Moody’s choose: Commanders 34, Buccaneers 29
Walder’s choose: Commanders 31, Buccaneers 26
FPI prediction: TB, 58.3% (by a median of three.3 factors)
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: MIN -2.5 (47.5 O/U)
Location change: The NFL has moved this game to Arizona, it introduced Thursday evening, saying the choice was made within the “curiosity of public security” as wildfires proceed to ravage Southern California. The sport was initially scheduled to happen at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. It now will likely be performed at Glendale’s State Farm Stadium, house of the Arizona Cardinals, on the similar time Monday.
Vikings storyline to look at: The groups’ Week 8 matchup turned partially on the Rams’ surprising activation of receiver Puka Nacua from injured reserve. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores admitted not too long ago that the Vikings have been stunned by Nacua’s participation, which brought about “just a little little bit of scrambling.” The Rams focused Nacua 3 times on their opening drive, and he completed with seven catches for 106 yards because the Rams scored what on the time was a season-high 30 factors. “They are a really totally different staff with Puka on the market,” Flores stated. “We know he will be on the market this time, and I’ll do a greater job of creating certain our guys are ready.” — Kevin Seifert
Rams storyline to look at: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had a 87.7 Total QBR towards the Vikings in Week 8, which was the best of any beginning quarterback towards Minnesota this season, in accordance with ESPN Research. He was pressured on 8.8% of dropbacks in that sport, the bottom mark for the Vikings’ protection all season. Now, he enters the playoffs averaging essentially the most passing yards per sport all time within the postseason (307.9). — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Vikings’ Sam Darnold is in search of to turn out to be the sixth beginning quarterback since 1966 to win his first profession postseason begin whereas taking part in for his fourth staff or later. Of the earlier 5, three went on to achieve the Super Bowl that season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Coach Sean McVay will try a discipline objective when he clearly shouldn’t, a minimum of in accordance with the ESPN Analytics mannequin. This is anticipated to be one of many closest video games on the wild-card slate, and the choice to kick will price the Rams dearly in a sport they lose by three or fewer factors. — Walder
Matchup X issue: Rams defensive sort out Braden Fiske. The rookie has the pass-rush juice to affect the pocket towards Minnesota. He had 8.5 sacks and 32 pressures within the common season. And he has the bodily traits to match up properly with a Vikings offensive line that struggled towards energy on the inside. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Vikings are 6-2 ATS of their previous eight video games. They are 5-1 ATS of their previous six video games as favorites. Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: The Rams have been flagged the fewest occasions this season of any playoff staff, and their common of 6.2 per sport ranked fifth within the NFL. So they’re going to welcome referee John Hussey’s crew, which averaged the NFL’s second-fewest flags per sport (13.4), particularly as a result of the Vikings drew essentially the most flags (8.3 per sport) within the league. — Seifert
Kahler’s choose: Rams 28, Vikings 26
Moody’s choose: Rams 30, Vikings 26
Walder’s choose: Vikings 24, Rams 23
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.9% (by a median of 1.2 factors)
