At a time when Hezbollah and Israel have signed a shaky ceasefire, and Hamas is significantly weakened in Gaza, one in all Iran’s different proxy strongholds within the Middle East is inflicting growing concern for the ayatollahs of the Islamic Republic of Iran: Syria.
Dozens of Syrian military troopers have been killed as rebels of the Islamist terror group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swept into the main metropolis of Aleppo, forcing the military to redeploy within the greatest problem to President Bashar al-Assad in years.
Russia, a serious Assad ally, mentioned its air drive had carried out strikes on Syrian rebels in assist of the nation’s military and adopted what was the boldest insurgent assault for years in a civil conflict the place entrance strains had largely been frozen since 2020.
Iranian-backed militias additionally entered Syria on Sunday evening from Iraq to assist Assad and have been heading to northern Syria to strengthen the beleaguered Syrian military forces battling insurgents, in line with Syrian military sources. Dozens of Iran-aligned Iraqi Hashd al Shaabi fighters from Iraq additionally crossed into Syria by way of a army route close to the Al Bukamal crossing.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, as soon as generally known as the Nusra Front, is designated a terrorist group by the US, Russia, Turkey, and different states. Most Syria- watchers, while appreciating the necessity for the Syrian Civil War to lastly be ended, could be anxious on the sudden army rise of a terror group comparable in beliefs to ISIS or al-Qaeda.
To throw his opinion into the combination, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei despatched out a put up on X on Sunday night addressing the present scenario in Syria, stating, “Takfiri teams are excellent news for enemies of the world of Islam. Exactly at a time when all Islamic Ummah’s consideration is concentrated on the problem of Palestine, Takfiri teams, as a substitute of concentrating on Zionist regime’s malevolent nature, draw the eye to different locations.
Takfiri teams are excellent news for enemies of the world of Islam. Exactly at a time when all Islamic Ummah’s consideration is concentrated on the problem of Palestine, Takfiri teams, as a substitute of concentrating on Zionist regime’s malevolent nature, draw the eye to different locations.#Syria
— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) December 1, 2024
Khamenei’s tweet criticizes takfiri teams, a time period typically used to explain extremist Sunni factions that declare different Muslims apostates (Takfir). He accused these teams of serving the pursuits of Islam’s enemies, such because the United States and Israel, by diverting consideration away from the Palestinian trigger and the “malevolent nature” of the Zionist regime (Israel).
This perspective aligns with Khamenei’s long-standing perception within the umma – that unity amongst Muslims is important to withstand exterior threats, notably Israel. By partaking in inner conflicts—like these in Syria—takfiri teams weaken the Islamic world and shift focus from what Khamenei views because the central subject: Palestinian liberation and opposition to Zionism.
Khamenei, whereas embodying the Shia theocratic mannequin, typically invokes the idea of the umma, or Muslim neighborhood at massive, to claim Iran’s management in a broader Islamist wrestle.
A relationship price saving?
Iran and Syria’s alliance started within the aftermath of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Syria, below former president Hafez al-Assad, was one of many first Arab nations to again Iran throughout the Iran-Iraq War. The shared hostility towards Israel and opposition to Western affect within the Middle East cemented their ties. Syria additionally offered important logistical assist to Iran, permitting the passage of arms and provides to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon – one thing Israel has spent years making an attempt to disrupt however amped up its strain because the conflict towards Hezbollah erupted after October 7.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), notably its Quds Force, has been the first actor managing Iran’s relationship with Syria. The Quds Force, tasked with overseeing Iran’s extraterritorial operations, established a major presence in Syria to assist each strategic objectives and ideological ones, comparable to exporting the Islamic Revolution’s ideas. Iran’s assist for Syria consists of arms provides, financial assist, and the coaching of pro-Assad militias.
The onset of Syria’s civil conflict in 2011 marked a turning level within the relationship. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, like his father Hafez, positioned himself as a key ally of Iran. When anti-Assad protests escalated right into a violent battle, the IRGC intervened decisively to make sure Assad’s survival, as dropping Syria would have been a strategic blow to Iran’s regional affect.
Iran has since poured billions of {dollars} into Syria, supplying arms, deploying IRGC officers, and recruiting militias from throughout the area, together with Afghan, Pakistani, and Iraqi fighters. This intervention helped Assad regain management over a lot of the nation. Iran additionally considered the conflict as an opportunity to develop its “axis of resistance” towards Israel, consolidating a land hall from Tehran to the Mediterranean.
The Assad household’s secular Ba’athist ideology contrasts with Iran’s theocratic Shi’a governance, however their partnership endures resulting from shared objectives. Both regimes oppose US insurance policies within the area, assist Palestinian resistance teams, and resist Sunni-dominated powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. For Iran, Syria acts as a important bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon and offers entry to Israel’s borders, enhancing its deterrence technique.
While the Iran-Syria alliance stays robust, it faces challenges, together with financial pressures and differing priorities in post-war reconstruction. Syria’s dependence on Russia has launched a brand new participant into the dynamic, typically complicating Iran’s affect. However, the IRGC’s deep entrenchment in Syrian safety and financial constructions ensures its continued leverage.
The relationship between Iran, the IRGC, and Syria is a multifaceted alliance outlined by strategic necessity, ideological convergence, and mutual survival towards shared adversaries. The IRGC’s position as Iran’s exterior arm ensures that Syria stays central to Iran’s regional ambitions.
Missing associates
Over the course of 2024, Khamenei has misplaced a few of his closest allies.
The elimination of figures like Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh (killed in Tehran itself), and Hamas’s Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar can have led the Iranian management to be determined to maintain Assad, their closest ally within the area, in energy. No matter what the fee.
In Khamenei’s eyes, the umma is not only an idea however a mission embodied within the jihadist teams that Iran backs and the IRGC’s intensive attain. His put up, accusing HTS of drawing consideration away from Israel’s wars and the Palestinian subject is merely a pretense diverting away from the actual subject and his actual message: Assad should keep in energy, or Iran’s affect can be critically wounded in Israel’s periphery.
