Almost precisely seven years in the past, President Vladimir Putin stood with Russian troops at their air base in Syria and proudly declared victory over “terrorists” in that nation as a part of the Kremlin’s navy intervention to prop up the federal government of Bashar Assad amid a civil conflict.
This weekend, these hard-won good points appeared a distant reminiscence. Assad unexpectedly fled to Moscow as his energy crumbled throughout a lightning offensive by rebels that his fundamental worldwide allies, Russia and Iran, have been unable to stem.
The Kremlin’s failure to forestall Assad’s swift downfall has uncovered limits of Russia’s energy and dented its worldwide clout at a pivotal stage of its conflict in Ukraine.
A take a look at Russia’s involvement in Syria and the doable penalties of Assad’s demise for Moscow:
What was Russia’s function in Syria and its civil conflict?
The Soviet Union was a longtime ally of Assad’s father, Hafez Assad, who dominated the nation for almost 30 years, and supplied navy advisers and help.
After an 2011 rebellion towards Bashar Assad’s rule morphed right into a civil conflict, Russia continued to be a key backer of Damascus, providing political help on the United Nations. When Assad’s rule neared collapse after a collection of battlefield defeats in 2015, Russia joined Iran to intervene militarily.
Russia deployed warplanes to the Hemeimeem air base in Syria’s coastal province of Latakia, delivering 1000’s of tons of navy tools and provides in an operation dubbed the “Syrian Express.” On Sept. 30, 2015, Moscow launched its air marketing campaign.
Russia saved solely about 50 warplanes at Hemeimeem, however they operated at a frenetic tempo, every flying a number of sorties a day. Most of the Russian air power personnel have been rotated by means of the bottom, giving them fight expertise.
At the identical time, Moscow expanded and upgraded its naval base in Tartus, the one such outpost exterior the previous USSR. It deployed particular operations forces for important floor missions and despatched a whole bunch of navy advisers to coach Syrian troops and direct their operations. Mercenaries from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group navy contractor additionally joined the battle.
The navy intervention allowed Assad to reclaim management of most of Syria, making the Kremlin a key energy dealer within the Middle East and boosting Russia’s status. Putin’s triumphal go to to Hemeimeem on Dec. 11, 2017, got here every week after Russia declared victory over the Islamic State group in Syria and shortly after he introduced a reelection bid for 2018.
It was Russia’s first navy operation exterior the previous Soviet Union because the USSR’s collapse in 1991 and gave Moscow an opportunity to check its newest weapons in fight. That navy success emboldened Putin and was a key issue that contributed to his determination to invade Ukraine in 2022.
Why did Russia fail to maintain Assad in energy?
After serving to Assad regain management over most Syria, Russia urged him to interact in talks with reasonable opposition teams. Buoyed by opposition defeats, nonetheless, Assad staunchly resisted any initiatives geared toward nationwide reconciliation.
“Trying to attenuate its prices in Syria, Russia has more and more targeted on sustaining the shaky and inefficient established order, preserving the crumbling and delegitimized Assad regime with none views,” stated Ruslan Pukhov, a Moscow-based navy knowledgeable, in an evaluation.
During current contacts between Syrian and Turkish officers that Moscow helped dealer this 12 months, Assad’s authorities confirmed little curiosity in compromise -– a recalcitrance that paved the way in which for the offensive by Turkey-backed opposition teams that ousted Assad.
Syria’s financial woes, exacerbated by isolating worldwide sanctions, weakened the nation and its navy. The demoralized Syrian military shortly crumbled beneath the brunt of the opposition offensive, a speedy meltdown that Tehran and Moscow couldn’t avert with the small contingents that they had in Syria.
Russia devoted the majority of its property to the conflict in Ukraine, whereas Iran, weakened by worldwide sanctions and locked in a tense standoff with Israel, equally lacked sources to assist Assad.
Alexander Dugin, an ideologue linked to some hawkish Kremlin circles, referred to as Assad’s demise as a painful blow to Russia.
“The Assad regime that we supported by means of huge efforts collapsed in only a few days. It’s very unhappy,” Dugin stated.
What occurs to Russian property in Syria?
With Assad’s demise, the way forward for Russia bases in Syria — its solely navy foothold exterior the previous Soviet Union — is in query.
The variety of Russian warplanes at Hemeimeem air base has shrunk from a number of dozen to only a few, though it continues to be a key logistics level. Russian navy cargo planes ferrying non-public contractors and provides to Africa used it for refueling, and its loss would pose logistical issues for operations there.
“The significance of Syria for Russia’s operations in Africa has been invaluable,” Moscow-based Middle East knowledgeable Nikolai Sukhov stated in televised feedback.
The Tartus naval base is utilized by Russian warships for upkeep, refueling and replenishing provides on visits to the Mediterranean. While opposition forces that ultimately ousted Assad swept throughout Syria in late November, the Russian navy and air power held drills within the japanese Mediterranean, with Tartus as its operational heart.
Even as Putin granted Assad and his household an asylum in Russia, Moscow reached out to the brand new Syrian authorities to attempt to make sure the safety of its bases and to increase their keep. An opposition flag shortly was hoisted on the Syrian Embassy in Moscow.
Asked concerning the bases, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated it might be a subject for future discussions with the brand new authorities.
“For now, we’re witnessing a interval of transformation and excessive instability, so it can clearly take time and require a severe dialog with those that can have energy,” he stated.
Syria’s new leaders reportedly promised to not assault Russian navy services.
Bronwen Maddox, director and chief govt at Chatham House, famous in a commentary that “no matter authorities emerges in Damascus is predicted – for the second -– to respect the deal that Assad struck granting Russia use of a navy base on the Syrian coast.”
But she added that this “essential asset is weak,” and that dangers Russia’s regional affect.
What does Assad’s demise imply for Russia?
Assad’s speedy downfall dealt a heavy blow to Putin at a time when he’s making ready for a brand new U.S. administration and what which means for the conflict in Ukraine. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to barter an finish to the battle.
Many observers observe that the humiliating lack of Russia’s solely ally within the Middle East has dented Kremlin status on the worldwide stage and will weaken Putin’s hand in any negotiations on Ukraine.
“The key difficulty is how Moscow will now attempt to adapt to the brand new realities and whether or not it can have sufficient flexibility to take care of the brand new masters of Syria, who appear to be taken with avoiding battle with Moscow for now,” Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary.
There can also be the likelihood that Putin may take an much more uncompromising stance in negotiations to keep away from wanting weak.
“Assad’s collapse has additionally shaken Putin, making him much less inclined to exhibit flexibility with Ukraine,” Stanovaya added. “The conflict in Ukraine has, to some extent, price him Syria, which reinforces his unwillingness to compromise.”
