Assad’s fall in Syria exposes limits of China’s Middle East diplomacy

BEIJING/HONG KONG, Dec 10 (Reuters) – Just over a 12 months in the past, China gave Bashar al-Assad and his spouse a heat welcome throughout their six-day go to to the nation, providing the previous Syrian chief a uncommon break from years of worldwide isolation because the begin of a civil battle in 2011.

As the couple attended the Asian Games, President Xi Jinping vowed to help Assad in “opposing exterior interference” and in Syria’s rebuilding, whereas his spouse Asma was feted in Chinese media.

But the abrupt finish to the rule of the authoritarian chief so explicitly backed by Xi solely final 12 months has dealt a blow to China’s diplomatic ambitions within the Middle East and uncovered the boundaries of its technique within the area, analysts say.

“There’s been a number of an exaggerated sense of China’s capability to form political outcomes within the area,” stated Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council.

While the collapse of the Assad regime was seen lowering the affect within the Arab world of his principal backers, Iran and Russia, it was additionally a blow for China’s international ambitions, stated Fulton.

“Lots of what (China has) been doing internationally has relied on help with these international locations, and their lack of ability to prop up their largest companion within the Middle East says rather a lot about their capability to do a lot past the area.”

TACKLING HOTSPOTS

After China brokered a deal between long-time rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese media praised Beijing’s rising profile in a neighbourhood lengthy dominated by Washington.

Wang Yi, China’s prime diplomat, stated the nation would play a constructive function in dealing with international “hotspot points”.

But regardless of bringing Middle Eastern leaders to Beijing and rounds of “shuttle diplomacy” by its Middle Eastern envoy, Zhai Jun, within the months since, Palestinians haven’t fashioned a unity authorities and the battle in Gaza continues.

“Assad’s sudden downfall just isn’t a state of affairs Beijing needs to see,” stated Fan Hongda, a Middle East scholar at Shanghai International Studies University. “China prefers a extra steady and unbiased Middle East, as chaos or a pro-American orientation within the area doesn’t align with China’s pursuits.”

The response by China’s international ministry to Assad’s fall has been muted, specializing in the protection of Chinese nationals and calling for a “political resolution” to revive stability in Syria as quickly as attainable.

Ministry of international affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, on Monday appeared to depart a gap for engagement with the long run authorities: “China’s pleasant relations with Syria are for all Syrian individuals,” she stated.

Chinese specialists and diplomats say Beijing will now bide its time earlier than recognising a brand new authorities in Damascus.

It might use its experience and monetary muscle to help reconstruction, they are saying, however its commitments are more likely to be restricted as a result of China has sought to minimise monetary dangers abroad in recent times.

Syria joined China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative in 2022, however there have been no vital investments by Chinese corporations since, partly as a consequence of sanctions.

China is “not likely capable of basically change the West both as an financial companion, or diplomatic or army pressure within the area,” stated Bill Figueroa, assistant professor on the University of Groningen and an knowledgeable in China-Middle East relations.

“China in 2024 has approach much less cash than China in 2013 – 2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa stated. There is “an apparent reassessment occurring within the course of safer investments and lowering China’s dangers total,” he added.

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