Everything that occurs in sports activities has further context when considered from a sports activities betting perspective. From season-changing accidents to record-setting moments and a lot extra, the sports activities information cycle will consistently and considerably have an effect on the sports activities betting trade.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, goals to offer followers a take a look at the sports activities betting tales which are driving the dialog.
Key hyperlinks: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET
Jan. 18: Kansas City Chiefs‘ cowl drawback won’t matter in playoffs
Doug Greenberg: For over half of the 2024 common season, the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t appear like the back-to-back Super Bowl champion juggernauts everybody anticipated them to be: The Chiefs have been successful virtually each recreation however weren’t doing so in convincing fashion.
From Weeks 1 by way of 14, Kansas City went 4-9 towards the unfold, which included an ATS dropping streak of seven video games from Weeks 8 by way of 14. The crew’s eight outright victories with out overlaying the unfold tied for essentially the most within the Super Bowl period, in line with ESPN Research.
Patrick Mahomes is the one quarterback within the Super Bowl period with a straight-up successful file (35-24) in video games the place his crew doesn’t cowl (minimal 5 video games); simply behind him is the good Roger Staubach (32-33).
The Chiefs are nine-point favorites towards the visiting Houston Texans to kick off the NFL divisional spherical, a captivating quantity on condition that KC has not lined a ramification this massive all season: The Chiefs are 7-0 SU however 0-7 ATS when laying at the very least six factors this season, the longest such streak within the Super Bowl period.
And but, regardless of all of the ATS inadequacy from the common season, Kansas City has been gaining steam within the betting markets, as the sport opened at a consensus Chiefs -7.5, however by Saturday morning, all main sportsbooks had come as much as at the very least -8.5, with ESPN BET getting as much as -9.5.
The sportsbook reported 68.2% of cash backing KC’s unfold in comparison with 57.3% of the tickets, with different main books equally reporting optimistic deal with splits supporting the Chiefs. FanDuel’s buying and selling crew says that the early motion had been “surprisingly” extra cut up than anticipated, however the guide will nonetheless “be cheering for the Texans.”
There’s some logic behind the cash. Besides Kansas City (7-10), there was just one different playoff crew that had a dropping ATS file within the common season — the Texans, who additionally went 7-10 towards the quantity.
The Chiefs’ championship pedigree can be possible taking part in a task in attracting huge cash. Dating again to 2022, KC has lined the unfold in six straight playoff video games, tied for the fifth-longest such streak within the Super Bowl period. The 2022 crew that gained all of it was equally poor ATS within the common season.
Mahomes all the time appears to step up his recreation within the postseason, as his 13-5 ATS file is the third-best amongst quarterbacks with at the very least 10 playoff begins since 1966; solely Jim Plunkett (8-2) and Eli Manning (9-3) have been higher.
Travis Kelce additionally elevates come January, posting larger receiving yards per recreation within the playoffs in comparison with the common season yearly since 2020. He has gone over his receiving yards prop in 13 straight playoff video games, and his quantity for Saturday is ready at 49.5 (juiced to -135) on ESPN BET, his lowest in any playoff recreation in that span.
Essentially, regardless that the Chiefs garnered an underperforming fame all through the common season, the betting public is able to again them in full power now that their playoff run has arrived.
“It’s the identical outdated tune and dance for the NFL,” BetMGM buying and selling supervisor Christian Cipollini mentioned by way of e mail. “The sportsbook wants the underdogs to cowl and is hoping for one of many canine to win outright to interrupt up parlays.”
The different juggernaut
At ESPN BET, the Chiefs’ moneyline represents the second-most chosen guess in parlays, behind the Detroit Lions‘ moneyline.
On Saturday evening, Detroit begins its quest to convey residence the franchise’s elusive first Super Bowl with a showdown towards the red-hot Washington Commanders. As of Saturday morning, the Lions are 8.5-point favorites at ESPN BET and have been getting loads of assist from the betting public market-wide.
Between the explosive offenses and Detroit’s banged-up protection, sportsbooks and bettors alike expect fireworks, as the sport’s 55.5-point over/below — up from 54.5 at open — is the very best complete in any playoff recreation since Super Bowl LV (2020) between the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It’s nothing new for this iteration of the Lions, who’ve performed within the 5 highest-total video games within the NFL this season, together with Saturday’s contest; the earlier 4 video games have seen a good cut up in overs vs. unders at 2-2.
Jan. 14: Bettors fade Ohio State as CFP title recreation unfold strikes towards Notre Dame
David Purdum: The line on the College Football Playoff National Championship recreation dropped early this week, with sportsbooks reporting sharp cash on underdog Notre Dame.
On Jan. 10, Ohio State opened as a consensus 9.5-point favourite over the Fighting Irish in one of many largest spreads in a championship recreation in the course of the BCS/CFP period. Some bettors thought the road was too huge and got here in early on Notre Dame, inflicting sportsbooks to drop the road to Ohio State -8.
“There wasn’t any information that drove this motion, however reasonably simply sharp wagering that shot down this unfold from 9.5 to eight.5,” Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook instructed ESPN. “We have seen a gradual stream of motion on Notre Dame so far, which was shocking on condition that we had seen an onslaught of Ohio State cash each on video games and futures since their win towards Tennessee.”
John Murray, vice chairman of the Westgate SuperGuide in Las Vegas, mentioned his store obtained a guess from a “very revered buyer” on Notre Dame +9.5 (-105) on Sunday.
“The total market moved down on the similar time,” Murray mentioned.
The line dropped to as little as Ohio State -7.5 on Monday, however has since settled again at a consensus -8. Feazel mentioned sharp bettors additionally guess towards the Buckeyes forward of the semifinal matchup with Texas.
“The sharps consider Ohio State’s numbers are overinflated available in the market,” Feazel mentioned. “I count on to see this line presumably come down barely nearer to 7.”
Jan. 12: Bills open as favorites over Ravens in battle of ‘greatest two groups in NFL’
David Purdum: Only three NFL playoff video games within the Super Bowl period closed with a line of choose ’em in ESPN’s database. Next week’s divisional spherical recreation in Buffalo has an opportunity to be the fourth.
The Buffalo Bills started the week as 1-point residence favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, however there was loads of volatility. The Bills opened as excessive as -2, however the line dropped to as little as choose ’em, earlier than settling again at -1 on Sunday evening. On Monday morning, the road moved to Ravens -1 at ESPN BET, however different books nonetheless have the Bills as the favourite.
The final playoff recreation with a closing moneyline of choose ’em was the 2019 wild-card matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles, who misplaced as 1-point favorites.
“We took an preliminary wager of $21,000 on Ravens +2 out of Louisiana, however motion might be restricted till the entire video games are completed at this time,” Joey Feazel, soccer oddsmaker for Caesars Sportsbook, instructed ESPN on Sunday.
Some oddsmakers have the Ravens power-rated forward of the Bills. Baltimore, at +475, has shorter Super Bowl odds than Buffalo (+500) at ESPN BET.
“We assume they’re the 2 greatest groups within the NFL,” John Murray, vice chairman of the Westgate SuperGuide in Las Vegas, mentioned. “Baltimore is power-rated larger, and that’s the reason they’re solely getting one level on the street. Buffalo is a spot we do give a home-field benefit in.”
The Bills have been favored in 42 consecutive residence video games, the longest lively streak within the NFL, in line with ESPN analysis. They haven’t been a house underdog since a Week 17 recreation towards the Miami Dolphins in 2020.
The Kansas City Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans within the different AFC divisional playoff recreation, however the line shortly moved to Chiefs -8.5
Home groups have been 4-0 straight-up and towards the unfold forward of the Sunday prime time recreation between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
