Betting suggestions for Saturday's NFL divisional spherical video games: Odds, evaluation, picks and developments

Jan 17, 2025, 01:35 PM ET

The NFL divisional round begins with a bang, because the No. 1 seeds in each the AFC and NFC will likely be in motion Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will start their pursuit of a 3rd straight Super Bowl championship in opposition to C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans to get the day underway.

The Detroit Lions, contemporary off a bye after defeating the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 to win the NFC North and clinch the convention’s high seed, host rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders.

We break down each video games and provide strains, props, picks, developments and extra that will help you put together for any betting alternatives.

Odds present as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

The NFL divisional spherical will get going Saturday with the two-time defending champion Chiefs (15-2, 7-10 ATS) internet hosting the Texans (11-7, 8-10 ATS after overlaying within the wild-card spherical) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

The AFC top-seeded Chiefs had a bye final week, whereas the Texans laid waste to the Los Angeles Chargers within the wild-card spherical. These groups have met twice beforehand within the playoffs, with the Chiefs successful each matchups.

Kansas City has been concerned in a number of shut calls this season, taking part in in 10 video games determined by seven factors or much less, successful every of them. The Chiefs are 7-0 outright however 0-7 ATS when laying at the very least six factors this season. They opened as 7.5-point favorites for Saturday’s matchup and now are 8-point favorites.

The Texans, who received the AFC South for a second consecutive season with quarterback C.J. Stroud on the helm, intercepted Justin Herbert 4 occasions within the wild-card spherical on the way in which to a convincing 32-12 victory.

The Texans are searching for back-to-back playoff wins for the primary time, whereas the Chiefs start their quest to turn into the primary staff to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

Saturday’s motion will get going at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+.

Game strains

Trailer: Texans vs. Chiefs

The Houston Texans tackle the Kansas City Chiefs within the AFC divisional spherical on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. EST on ESPN/ABC.

Spread: Chiefs -8 (Opened Chiefs -7.5)
Money line: Chiefs -450, Texans +340
Over/Under: 41.5 (Opened 42.5)

First-half unfold: Chiefs -4.5 (-125), Ravens +4.5 (+102)
Chiefs whole factors: 24.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Texans whole factors: 16.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): 63.6% likelihood to win (by 4.6)

Player props

Passing

Patrick Mahomes whole passing yards: 249.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Mahomes whole passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -150/Under +115)
C.J. Stroud whole passing yards: 224.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Stroud whole passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +170/Under -230)

Rushing

Joe Mixon whole speeding yards: 59.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Isiah Pacheco whole speeding yards: 44.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Kareem Hunt whole speeding yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Mahomes whole speeding yards: 24.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Receiving

Nico Collins whole receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Xavier Worthy whole receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Travis Kelce whole receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -145/Under +115)
Hollywood Brown whole receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -1/52Under -105)
Dalton Schultz whole receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
John Metchie III whole receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Andre Snellings’ decide: Texans +8

How Tyler Fulghum is betting Texans-Chiefs

Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he likes including the Chiefs to his teasers for the NFL playoffs and why he’s leaning to the underneath.

The Chiefs play shut video games and win, however the video games are sometimes aggressive, defensive affairs. Only 4 of the Chiefs’ 15 wins this season have been by greater than eight factors. The mixed file of the shedding groups in these lopsided contests is 24-44. The Chiefs haven’t lined an expansion this massive all season; they’re 7-0 outright however 0-7 in opposition to the unfold when laying at the very least six factors this season, per ESPN Research. They are additionally coming off a multiweek layoff, with a bye within the wild-card spherical after sitting their starters in Week 18.

The Texans appeared as sharp as they’ve appeared all season in opposition to the Chargers final Saturday. The Chiefs beat the Texans by eight factors once they met in Week 16 and needs to be favored to win, however the unfold for me is just too excessive for a Chiefs staff that appears to like successful on the final possession of virtually each sport.

Betting developments and extra

Courtesy ESPN Research

Kansas City is searching for its eighth straight playoff win, which might be third-longest streak in NFL historical past behind the 2001-05 New England Patriots (10) and 1961-67 Green Bay Packers (9).
The Chiefs are a win away from a seventh straight convention championship look (can be the second-longest streak because the 1970 merger, trailing solely the 2011-18 Chiefs, who went to eight straight).
Patrick Mahomes is searching for his sixteenth playoff win as beginning QB, which might tie Joe Montana for second most in NFL historical past, trailing Tom Brady with 35.
Mahomes is 6-0 within the divisional spherical (already probably the most wins and not using a loss by a beginning QB in any playoff spherical in NFL historical past).
Mahomes is 4-1 in opposition to the Texans, together with the playoffs. In these video games, he has averaged over 280 cross yards per sport and has thrown 14 TDs to only one interception.
The Chiefs are 2-0 all time vs. the Texans in playoffs (received 2015 wild-card matchup 30-0 and 2019 divisional-round sport 51-31 after trailing 24-0 within the second quarter.
The Texans are 6-7 all time within the playoffs and have by no means received consecutive playoff video games (0-5 within the divisional spherical). They are the one franchise that has by no means made a convention championship because the spherical was created in 1970.
The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites (at the moment 8) however haven’t lined an expansion this massive all season. They are 7-0 outright however 0-7 in opposition to the unfold when laying at the very least six factors this season. That is the longest such streak of successful however not overlaying as a 6-point favourite within the Super Bowl period, simply forward of the 2020 Chiefs and 2006-09 Miami Dolphins (six every).
The Chiefs are 15-2 this season however are simply 7-10 in opposition to the unfold. The solely different playoff staff with a shedding file in opposition to the unfold is their opponent, the Texans, who’re 8-10 ATS after overlaying within the wild-card spherical.
The Chiefs’ eight victories this season with out overlaying the unfold are tied for probably the most in a single season within the Super Bowl Era.

Saturday’s second divisional-round sport options an NFC matchup between a Lions staff at the moment favored to win the Super Bowl (at +275) versus a Commanders staff (30-1) that went from 4-13 and a last-place end within the NFC East to 12-5 and advancing to the divisional spherical in Year 1 of the Dan Quinn-Jayden Daniels period.

Last season, the Lions got here up one sport in need of the Super Bowl, falling 34-31 to the San Francisco 49ers within the NFC Championship sport. Meanwhile, the Commanders ended their 2023 season with eight straight losses.

How issues can change.

The Commanders (13-5, 12-6 ATS) completed this marketing campaign with 5 straight wins to shut out the common season and are coming off a wild-card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That victory over the Buccaneers was Washington’s sixth win this season by which the game-winning rating got here within the remaining 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or in additional time.

Detroit (15-2, 12-5 ATS) misplaced two video games all season (to the Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills) by a mixed 10 factors on the way in which to a second straight NFC North title. The Lions boast a prolific offense that led the NFL in scoring and outscored opponents by a league-high 222 factors within the common season. They are the largest favorites of the weekend, laying 9.5 factors in opposition to the Commanders.

Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

Game strains

How Fulghum is backing the Commanders in divisional spherical vs. Lions

Tyler Fulghum explains why he takes the Commanders to cowl the unfold of their divisional spherical matchup vs. the Lions.

Spread: Lions -9.5 (Opened Lions -8.5)
Money line: Lions -600, Commanders +400
Over/Under: 55.5 (Opened 53.5)

First-half unfold: Lions -6.5 (-105), Ravens +6.5 (-115)
Lions whole factors: 32.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Commanders whole factors: 22.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN analytics): Lions 73% likelihood to win (by 9)