We hope you wrote down all your preseason predictions in pencil, not pen. Because a few of these ideas that appeared affordable a month in the past — not a lot now.
Take UConn, the two-time champion that has already fallen on exhausting instances after an 0-3 stretch on the Maui Invitational throughout Thanksgiving week. The Huskies almost fell out of the nationwide rankings, however extra importantly, they have been the topic of widespread doubt about their probabilities to win a 3rd consecutive nationwide championship.
With UConn’s early decline, the trail appears open for a brand new champion, however whom? No workforce has emerged because the clear front-runner at this level.
In the nationwide participant of the yr race, Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 choose, has been spectacular, nevertheless it nonetheless looks like we’re ready on that efficiency that separates him from the pack, which is stacked with contenders. He’ll must chase Auburn’s Johni Broome and Marquette’s Kam Jones to finish the season with the Wooden Award.
Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf focus on the present faculty basketball panorama a month into the season.
What has been the largest shock (good or dangerous) of the season thus far?
Medcalf: I did not anticipate this begin from the Tennessee Volunteers, who will most likely begin the week because the No. 1 workforce within the Associated Press ballot. Last season’s Elite Eight squad had Dalton Knecht, the present front-runner for the NBA’s rookie of the yr award, Jonas Aidoo (transferred to Arkansas) and different key vets. But with Zakai Zeigler and North Florida switch Chaz Lanier, these Vols have the next offensive effectivity charge than final season’s workforce. And they’re nonetheless defensively astute, per the norm below coach Rick Barnes.
Borzello: Entering the season, there was a case to be made that the three most confirmed gamers within the nation had been North Carolina’s RJ Davis, Alabama’s Mark Sears and Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson. Through one month, although, all three have been way more inconsistent than we have come to anticipate from them. Davis is capturing 35% from the sector and a career-low 24.2% from 3. Sears is capturing a career-low 37% and was scoreless in opposition to Illinois. Dickinson is averaging his fewest factors since his freshman season. All three groups want their stars to return to their previous kind, too.
Lunardi: We all knew the SEC could be good. We did not know it will be this deep and this good. It’s now very attainable — perhaps even possible — that the convention will set a report for many NCAA bids in a single season. The 16-team Big East of 2010-11 put 11 groups into that season’s bracket. The 16-team SEC of 2024-25 at the moment tasks 12, with no less than another on the bubble.
Which nationwide championship contender do you now not imagine in?
Medcalf: For me, it is the UConn Huskies. I believe it is simple to overlook that Dan Hurley’s back-to-back champion groups produced six NBA draft picks, together with three first-round choices. Those Huskies weren’t an underdog story. They had been extraordinarily proficient and expert, which helps when the objective is to win a nationwide championship. This season, nevertheless, the Huskies lack that very same imposing depth. One coach who confronted UConn this season advised ESPN that it is now not a workforce opponents worry. And I’m not satisfied that may change earlier than March.
Borzello: Houston. The straightforward reply could be UConn, however I’m not prepared to surrender on the reigning back-to-back champion and a workforce with Dan Hurley as its coach and Alex Karaban and Liam McNeeley as its go-to guys. The Houston Cougars, nevertheless, are a workforce about which I’ve critical issues. The Cougars’ protection is nice sufficient to maintain them in video games, however I simply do not know if they’ve the shot creators wanted to win a title. It was a difficulty at instances final season, once they had been arguably one of the best workforce within the nation, however that workforce had Jamal Shead. This workforce, after all, doesn’t.
Lunardi: The North Carolina Tar Heels is likely to be hard-pressed to make the ultimate 4 of the ACC, a lot much less the Final Four that basically issues. The Tar Heels have been dealt with by each main convention foe and wanted some late-game luck to flee Dayton for his or her solely win in Maui. This is identical program that missed the match altogether two years in the past as a preseason No. 1 workforce, and that should not occur when you have got RJ Davis.
Which nationwide championship contender are you now all-in on?
Medcalf: The Duke Blue Devils. There has been plenty of buzz about Duke’s late-game stumbles in opposition to Kansas and Kentucky. But there’s additionally one other method to have a look at it: A workforce led by the projected No. 1 choose within the NBA draft simply completed 2-2 in opposition to Auburn, Arizona, Kentucky and Kansas, and it is a handful of performs from being 4-0. Tyrese Proctor has linked on 46% of his 3-point makes an attempt. And with Khaman Maluach within the paint, the Blue Devils are additionally first in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom. They’ll be harmful within the postseason.
Borzello: It’s exhausting to not be a giant believer in Auburn proper now. The Tigers have the Wooden Award favourite in Johni Broome, an rising freshman guard in Tahaad Pettiford and a slew of versatile veterans up and down the roster that enables them to play in opposition to completely different types. I did not fairly think about them nationwide title contenders earlier than the season, however they’ve performed like arguably one of the best workforce within the nation by way of one month.
Lunardi: Is it time but to speak about Marquette? The Golden Eagles had been thought to want just a little time after dropping Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek however have as a substitute solidified behind nationwide POTY candidate Kam Jones. Marquette has misplaced simply as soon as, at Iowa State, and boasts what’s approaching a No. 1 seed-type résumé.
What storyline has but to be addressed that you simply’re ready to see?
Medcalf: After plenty of noise all through the preseason concerning the potential impact, I’d wish to understand how the journey calls for hooked up to realignment will impression groups in convention play. Oregon might make noise within the Big Ten after a powerful begin however journeys to Ohio State, Penn State and Minnesota — over a three-week span — may very well be bodily difficult. UCLA will play at Maryland and Rutgers in mid-January. And Arizona will journey to Cincinnati and West Virginia shortly after New Year’s, too. Those opponents can even must make prolonged journeys to play the West Coast colleges, too. It’s a more recent dynamic on this panorama that might impression outcomes.
Borzello: Can a workforce win a nationwide championship beginning three freshmen? That’s going to be the large query going through Duke the remainder of the season. I’m larger on the Blue Devils as a possible title-winner than I used to be coming into the season, principally as a result of they’re clearly going to be an elite defensive unit with Cooper Flagg’s versatility, Maliq Brown‘s publish protection and Khaman Maluach’s rim safety. Tyrese Proctor, Caleb Foster and Kon Knueppel should change into extra constant because the season progresses, however there is definitely sufficient right here to succeed in San Antonio.
Lunardi: How deep will the choice committee go in contemplating dropping groups inside the expanded tremendous leagues? The notion of rejecting sub.-500 energy convention information is lengthy since out the window. But suppose, say, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 7-13 within the Big Ten with 4 or 5 Quad 1 wins? Or Arkansas goes 6-12 within the SEC with a small handful of massive wins? Debates that previously fell into the NIT window are going to be very a lot in play this March.
Is the nationwide participant of the yr race just a little clearer at this level of the season?
Medcalf: I believe Johni Broome was clearly the man to beat forward of Auburn’s highway take a look at in opposition to Louisville on Sunday. And that is nonetheless the fact. Cooper Flagg has a formidable stat line (16.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.4 BPG), and his workforce has a win over Broome’s squad; Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler may very well be sleepers on this dialog, too. But Broome’s actual competitors proper now’s Kam Jones, who completed with 32 factors in Shaka Smart’s first win over Wisconsin as Marquette’s head coach. It was the fourth time this season that Jones scored no less than 24 factors in a recreation.
Borzello: As talked about earlier, three of the prime POY candidates coming into the season — Davis, Sears, Dickinson — have not been fairly pretty much as good as earlier years. Flagg has been terrific and will solely get higher because the season goes on, however the favourite proper now’s clearly Broome. Entering Sunday, the Auburn large man was averaging 20.6 factors and main the nation in rebounding at 12.8 per recreation — whereas additionally shelling out three assists and blocking three pictures per evening. He has been excellent in large video games (20 and 9 vs. Houston, 21 and 10 vs. Iowa State, 23 and 19 vs. North Carolina, 20 and 12 vs. Duke), and his dominance reveals no signal of slowing down.
Lunardi: Allow me to throw in one other candidate: Eric Dixon is placing up online game numbers at Villanova. He’s second within the nation in scoring (25.7 PPG) with capturing splits of .530/.541./851. If the sixth-year redshirt someway leads the Wildcats to the NCAA match and saves Kyle Neptune’s job, he’ll must get some consideration.
If you could possibly have ONE preseason prediction do-over, what wouldn’t it be?
Medcalf: I might have had extra confidence in Memphis. When Penny Hardaway fired most of his employees previous to the beginning of the 2024-25 marketing campaign, it appeared as if this system was inflow. But the additions of Mike Davis and Nolan Smith has clearly elevated a workforce that began 7-1 with wins over UConn and Michigan State. Plus, P.J. Haggerty (22.3 PPG, 42 p.c from past the arc coming into Sunday) — who’s at his third college — is taking part in like an All-American. I’m unsure how far Memphis will go within the postseason, however the Tigers appear like an NCAA match workforce with a powerful backcourt that is already helped this program exceed early expectations.
Borzello: I’d have centered extra on North Carolina’s full lack of a frontcourt. I had the Tar Heels simply outdoors the highest 10, however in that second or third tier of groups that might make a Final Four run. Most of that was predicated on a fully loaded perimeter group with Davis, Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble, Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. And the guards have been pretty much as good as marketed, regardless of the consistency points. But the frontcourt has been nonexistent and the protection woeful. Belmont switch Cade Tyson is just not Harrison Ingram, Vanderbilt switch Ven-Allen Lubin is just not Armando Bacot. And earlier than this previous weekend, the Tar Heels had allowed 91 factors per recreation in 5 video games in opposition to top-50 opponents.
Lunardi: More perception within the Kentucky Wildcats. Even if it is recency bias after this weekend’s late-night conquer Gonzaga, Mark Pope has the Wildcats additional alongside than even essentially the most ardent members of Big Blue Nation anticipated. Wins over Duke and the Zags are items that may carry on giving irrespective of what number of SEC pot holes the Wildcats encounter. This is a second weekend NCAA match workforce at worst, which can be a pleasant change of tempo in Lexington.
Make a daring prediction for the remainder of the season:
Medcalf: We will see one other shock retirement from an elite coach this yr. Over the final three years, Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Jim Boeheim and Jay Wright all left the sport, partially due to the altering tide created by NIL and switch portal calls for. While many veteran coaches have adjusted and vowed to stay for years to come back — see: Tom Izzo and Kelvin Sampson — the concept of rebuilding a workforce each season is a burden for coaches at each stage. And despite the fact that among the most completed coaches have dedicated themselves to adapting to the adjustments within the sport, there is no such thing as a assure they will nonetheless really feel that method in 4 months.
Borzello: Only one 1-seed reaches the Final Four. Given we have had simply multiple 1-seed advance to the Final Four in simply one of many final three NCAA tournaments, maybe this is not that daring — however I believe now we have a Final Four way more akin to 2023 (zero 1-seeds, no seed higher than a 4) than a chalky one. Parity is as prevalent as ever, high groups are struggling away from residence each evening, and I believe there are groups outdoors the present high 25 ok to make a run to the Final Four. It provides as much as a wild NCAA match.
Lunardi: Even with two fewer groups, the SEC will get extra NCAA match bids than both the Big Ten or ACC. And, if non-conference information translate in any respect, these bids won’t be wasted. I anticipate the SEC will comprise half of this yr’s Final Four and pose a real risk for the league’s first nationwide championship since Kentucky in 2012.
