The SMU versus Alabama debate for the ultimate at-large bid within the 2025 College Football Playoff has understandably stolen the highlight coming into Selection Sunday. There can also be vital consternation about how the primary few groups outdoors the highest 4 convention champions will probably be determined. Ultimately, how the committee interprets these league title sport outcomes may have ripple results all through the sphere.
Let’s begin with the talk over the ultimate at-large bid.
Alabama held that spot in final Tuesday’s penultimate CFP Rankings, and it appeared in fine condition to take care of that slot after CFP chairman Warde Manuel stated the rankings have been locked for groups not taking part in convention championship weekend.
However, there was a doomsday state of affairs: Clemson pulling off an upset over SMU within the ACC Championship Game with the Mustangs taking part in effectively sufficient to warrant a spot within the discipline.
Unfortunately for the Crimson Tide, that is precisely what occurred Saturday night time. Clemson freshman kicker Nolan Hauser’s 56-yard walk-off game-winning discipline purpose not solely propelled the Tigers into the sphere as an computerized qualifier however gave SMU a more-than-reasonable probability to obtain an at-large bid.
SMU (11-2) has fewer losses than Alabama (9-3) however exists in an analogous house as Miami (FL) in that it lacks resume-boosting wins. The Mustangs are 0-2 towards high 25 opponents, whereas Alabama has a 3-1 report towards groups, together with a win over newly topped SEC champion Georgia. Furthermore, Alabama’s energy of schedule (18th) is significantly higher than that of SMU (seventy fifth) because the Tide’s opponents had a mixed report of 82-50 whereas the Mustangs’ have been 83-75.
The SMU case? Well, it went undefeated throughout ACC regular-season play (8-0), and its two losses are nowhere close to as dangerous as Alabama’s 21-point defeat to 6-6 Oklahoma (through which Bama scored 3 factors) or its highway loss to 6-6 Vanderbilt. SMU’s wins towards Louisville and Pittsburgh have been notable on the time, too.
If Alabama ranked a spot above Miami within the penultimate CFP Rankings, one might surmise it deserves to carry the identical spot compared head-to-head towards SMU given the argument is similar. And which may be precisely what occurs!
However, SMU completed as a Power Four convention runner-up in a tightly-contested ACC title sport it misplaced 34-31. If the CFP Selection Committee utterly dropped SMU out of the sphere, it will set a harmful precedent for convention championship video games, that are typically main cash makers for leagues. It would basically incentivize groups to not search out these alternatives in order to not lose and doubtlessly fall all the best way out of the playoff discipline.
Alabama received the good thing about the doubt final season because it acquired the ultimate spot over undefeated Florida State in a call that also roils the ACC. This time round, the ACC has a greater probability of bouncing an SEC crew out for the final at-large bid.
How will the highest three at-large bids shake out?
The committee would not merely should determine what to do with ACC championship loser SMU. It additionally wants to determine the place to place one-loss Notre Dame, SEC runner-up Texas and Big Ten runner-up Penn State. The Fighting Irish have been No. 4 within the penultimate CFP Rankings, whereas the Longhorns have been No. 2 (slated for a first-round bye with an SEC win) and the Nittany Lions positioned No. 3 because the second Big Ten crew behind No. 1 Oregon.
Texas (11-2) misplaced to Georgia, 24-19, within the first SEC title sport to succeed in time beyond regulation, a contest the Longhorns simply might have gained. Penn State (11-2) fell to the Ducks in a one-score 45-37 loss. And then you will have Notre Dame (11-1), which didn’t play Saturday however in idea might slide up if Texas and Penn State each transfer down.
Texas’ solely two losses are to Georgia, giving it the very best defeats of the group; nonetheless, Penn State’s two losses (Ohio State, Oregon) are in the identical neighborhood. Notre Dame has by far the worst loss to Northern Illinois (7-5), a seventh-place MAC crew. That it got here at dwelling, too, making it the worst lack of any CFP contender.
The ‘Horns are 0-2 towards high 25 opponents, a serious knock on their resume. The Nittany Lions maintain a singular high 25 win (No. 19 Illinois), whereas the Irish solely possesses one high 25 win over AAC champion Army West Point (No. 24). Army’s win Friday night time over Tulane solely strengthens ND’s argument.
Just like with Alabama and SMU, it will likely be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the committee chooses to penalize groups that competed in league title video games, particularly ones that have been extraordinarily shut. Notre Dame has been steadily transferring up the rankings in current weeks, and there is an argument it ought to bounce Texas and Penn State. It virtually definitely would in a standard week.
However, on this state of affairs, it feels extra probably that the committee will hold Texas and Penn State forward of Notre Dame. That’s not an insignificant resolution, both, given how the sphere is shaping up.
If Notre Dame finally ends up because the No. 7 seed, that units up a doable quarterfinal towards No. 2 Georgia within the Sugar Bowl. If Notre Dame as a substitute receives the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, it will probably play Boise State or Arizona State in a quarterfinal.
The harder query will probably be how the committee weighs Texas versus Penn State. The resumes are pretty comparable, and each misplaced marquee convention championship video games by single scores. Texas was ranked larger than Penn State coming into Saturday night time, which could find yourself being the slight edge that places the ‘Horns within the No. 5 seed.
Keep on studying for knowledgeable picks on slots No. 5-7 within the College Football Playoff discipline together with which crew our CBS Sports faculty soccer writers imagine will obtain the ultimate at-large bid. You may try a whole slate of 2024-25 bowl projections from bowls knowledgeable Jerry Palm.
College Football Playoff projection
The high two seeds of the CFP are all however a formality after Oregon remained undefeated by beating Penn State within the Big Ten Championship Game and Georgia knocked off Texas for the second time this season to win the SEC Championship Game. Boise State (Mountain West) and Arizona State (Big 12) would be the different convention champions who obtain byes given Clemson (ACC) has three losses.
While there’s an argument that the Sun Devils ought to be the No. 3 seed above the Broncos, ASU was ranked 5 spots decrease within the penultimate CFP Rankings. As such, bowls specialists Jerry Palm and Brad Crawford each agree the highest 4 seeds — every receiving first-round byes — will shake out as follows:
- Oregon (13-0)
- Georgia (11-2)
- Boise State (12-1)
- Arizona State (11-2)
College Football Playoff knowledgeable picks
Here’s how our faculty soccer employees would vote in the important thing spots — selecting groups Nos. 5-7 and the final at-large bid within the discipline — in the event that they have been members of the CFP Selection Committee.
