For the third sport in a row, the Detroit Lions (12-1) will play contained in the comfortable confines of Ford Field. In Week 15, they host the Buffalo Bills (10-3) and if the Lions wish to proceed their scorching streak, they’ll have to comply with the keys to victory specified by this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Bills’ offensive and defensive schemes
For an in depth take a look at the opposing scheme, be sure you try our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 15 Preview: Breaking down Bills’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Establish an early run sport vs. Jekyll and Hyde DL
The Lions will at all times prioritize establishing the run, however will probably be particularly necessary on this sport as they try to regulate the clock and preserve the Bills’ offense on the sidelines. While they’re coming off a “good” efficiency on the bottom in opposition to the Packers, it was less than their requirements, in line with Lions working backs coach and assistant head coach Scottie Montgomery.
“It is a regular,” Montgomery stated on Wednesday. “Lots of people would say, ‘Man, you guys bought 100 yards, good.’ But good is the enemy of nice, and round right here our commonplace is nice. We enlarge the issues we don’t fairly do in addition to we wish, and that’s why we’re nice. And that’s why the O-line is the place they’re, however we must be higher this week.”
Montgomery went on to debate how the run sport related to each a part of their offense and the group has buckled down to verify they get again to their commonplace this week in opposition to the Bills.
On paper, the Bills are a bit up and down. They carry out very excessive in some areas whereas struggling in others, regardless of having adjoining stats. To elaborate a bit additional, right here is an excerpt from our Bills scheme breakdown:
For instance, they’re the highest group within the NFL in “stuffed charge,” that means they cease runs at or behind the road of scrimmage on 23.6% of run performs. Yet, working backs common 1.62 yards earlier than contact (twenty third) and three.11 yards after contact (twenty second). Buffalo has given up 49 rushes of 10+ yards (twenty sixth) and permit 4.7 yards per carry (twenty sixth). Essentially, what this exhibits is that except the line of defense is stuffing the run on the line of scrimmage, they’re usually vulnerable to explosive performs on the bottom.
The Bills hit-and-miss run protection begins with their play design, as they dwell in subpackages, practically 100% of the time. As a consequence, their base protection deploys 4 down defensive linemen, two off-the-ball linebackers, and can usually drop a nickel nook within the field as a seventh defender. They solely deliver an eighth defender (usually a security) into the field 7% of the time, the bottom proportion within the NFL.
These gentle packing containers create alternatives for robust speeding assaults and offensive strains to take benefit. Heading into this sport, the Lions speeding offense has solely been “stuffed” 13.7% of the time (fourth greatest), making this a power-vs-power contest. If the Lions can cut back the Bills’ impression to make stops on the line of scrimmage, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs ought to have alternatives to re-establish a “nice” speeding assault.
Key 2: Offensive line stability ought to disrupt Bills unpredictability
One of the Bills’ counters to a lightweight field is to disguise assignments pre-snap. Fortunately for the Lions, their offensive line is terrific in selecting up misdirection and speaking changes on the fly.
Because the Bills carry this unpredictability into their protection scheme, the Lions offensive line may also want to verify they offer quarterback Jared Goff time to evaluate the scenario and make the proper learn. On common, the Bills want 2.7 seconds earlier than they’re capable of generate strain (twenty first), whereas Goff takes on common 2.78 seconds to throw (fifteenth). Meaning, if the offensive line can maintain a tick longer, they’ll set Goff up for fulfillment.
The key matchup shall be Lions proper sort out Penei Sewell vs. Bills left defensive finish (63.1% of the time) Gregory Rousseau. As a group, the Bills have 152 pressures (twentieth) via 13 video games, whereas Rousseau accounts for 44, 19 greater than each different Bills defender (Ed Oliver has 25, Von Miller 21, DaQuan Jones 17, A.J. Epenesa 16, and everybody else is in single digits).
According to NextGen Stats, “Sewell has allowed the Fifth-lowest strain charge amongst proper tackles with at the least 150 move blocks this season (6.6%) and has allowed greater than 3 pressures in only one sport this season (Week 6 vs Cowboys).”
If Sewell can outperform Rousseau, Goff can have time to cook dinner. When Goff has time to function in a clear pocket (which he usually will get 66.7% of the time) his numbers skyrocket. His completion proportion rises to 79%, his yards per move try are a formidable 9.1, and he has an 87.5 grade from PFF.
Key 3: Take time in passing sport, discover the open choice
The Bills run zone protection round 74-77% of the time (eighth most per PFF, fifth most per NextGen Stats), and in opposition to this model of protection, Goff will usually take what’s there, hitting the open man, and placing him in a scenario to achieve yards after the catch (YAC). On the season, Goff is gaining 8.4 yards per try in opposition to zone protection, sixth greatest within the NFL.
To the Bills’ credit score, whereas they conceded the 18th most YAC within the NFL, they solely enable the second-most YAC above expectations, that means that in the event that they’re able to make the sort out, they usually do.
One potential pitfall Goff must be acutely aware of is the truth that all 10 of his interceptions on the season have come in opposition to zone protection. As mentioned above, if the Lions’ offensive line should purchase Goff time to dissect the Bills’ protection, he can keep away from turnovers, but when Buffalo can handle to achieve strain, Goff will must be each fast and sharp.
In all, It’ll be as much as Goff to be affected person together with his receivers working open, to establish the openings within the zone, in addition to the disguise, and make clear throws.
Key 4: Be ready to attain a whole lot of factors
The Bills have the second-highest scoring offense within the NFL, averaging 30.5 factors scored per sport. They solely path the Lions and their league-leading 32.1 factors scored per sport. This sport has the potential to show right into a shootout, which is one thing the Lions are getting ready for.
“If they rating a ton of factors, we’ve bought to attain a ton of factors and vice versa. If we rating a ton of factors, then they’ve bought to attain a ton of factors,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff stated. “I believe we see that. That sport final week that they performed in. The Rams scored, no matter, 40-something, and so they needed to form of play catch up on the finish, and certain sufficient, they had been capable of and nearly made it shut.”
Key 5: Win on third down
So a lot of the nationwide narrative surrounding the Lions this week has surrounded coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness on fourth down (Note: if you happen to missed Ty Schalter’s unlocked PODD piece to counter this argument, it’s price your time). And whereas I readily embrace the Lions’ aggressive nature in these conditions (they convert 68.18% of the time, sixth greatest within the NFL), I might encourage the teaching workers to maintain enterprise on third down in opposition to the Bills, as a result of they’re stopping groups 44% of the time on fourth downs, fifth greatest within the NFL.
Heading into this sport, right here’s who these two groups evaluate on third downs:
- Bills cease offenses on third down 43.23% of the time, twenty fifth within the NFL
- Lions convert on third down 45.81% of the time, fourth greatest within the NFL
With the highest two scoring offenses battling it out, prolonged drives that finish in touchdowns shall be at a premium, and it might be in one of the best curiosity of the Lions to make the most of the numbers on third down by staying aggressive.
“They discovered a strategy to preserve it going there on third down,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stated of the Rams’ success in opposition to the Bills. “And it was a mix of the first receiver getting open, it was beating man protection, it was (Rams QB Matthew) Stafford extending the play and making some performs in streetball – extra mentality. And so, our guys, we simply watched all these third downs back-to-back-to-back and our guys perceive what the duty is at hand.”
Key 6: Lots of base personnel
When Joe Brady took over midway via 2023, the Bills re-dedicated themselves to the run sport. In 2024, one of many ways in which they’ve managed to have success is by working 12 personnel (one working again and two tight ends) round 20% of the time, and deploying a sixth offensive lineman round 15% of the time. This method is designed so as to add additional blockers into the fold whereas forcing defenses out of their most well-liked subpackage units and into extra base seven-man entrance formations.
Fortunately for the Lions, no person runs extra base protection within the NFL than them, and it stays a closely used package deal, regardless of the damage points at linebacker. Last week in opposition to the Packers, the Lions stored three linebackers on the sector 64% of the time, a quantity that might be replicated in opposition to the Bills this week.
Key 7: Prioritize stopping the run, particularly inside
The Bills have rededicated themselves to working the ball. They will attempt to set up themselves by working between the tackles, will add additional blockers to assist drive success, and infrequently transfer away from it, even when it’s not working, because it units up different elements of their offense—all related traits to the Lions offense.
By the pure numbers, the Bills have a top-11 speeding assault (speeding yards per sport, per carry, yards after contact, and so forth) however they’re environment friendly and boast a 0.12 run EPA (third greatest within the NFL), whereas additionally boasting the fifth-best DVOA speeding offense rating.
While the Lions won’t ever really make the Bills one-dimensional, Buffalo’s sport in opposition to the Rams final week confirmed how they’ll alter their priorities when trailing.
Key 8: Keep Josh Allen from repeating Superman efficiency
Against the Rams, Allen took over the sport in a comeback effort and scored six (!) touchdowns, three via the air and one other three on the bottom.
“He’s bought a big-time arm, he’s correct, he can learn defenses, after which he’s bought the bodily capability to take off and run, and he can run over folks, he can run round you, he can get on the perimeter,” Campbell stated of Allen. “So, that is going to be an enormous activity for us, this isn’t going to be simple.”
So how do they sluggish him down?
“Well, the very first thing that we’ve to do, we’ve to remain in protection,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn stated of defending Allen. “And our DBs know that (as a result of) he can prolong performs. We have to verify we don’t enable him to make these off-schedule performs like he’s made all through his profession, and once we do have him, man, we’ve to wrap and it needs to be inhabitants to the ball to ensure that we get him tied up and get him to the bottom. Listen, it’s onerous to sort out this man, I imply, everyone knows that, however I believe our guys sit up for that.”
Key 9: Terrion must be on his sport
When inspecting Allen’s tendencies, he tends to seek out probably the most success when throwing to his left in any respect ranges of the sector. That will put a whole lot of accountability on Lions rookie nook Terrion Arnold, who tends to work on that facet of the sector. Fortunately for the Lions, Arnold has proven constant progress all through the season and is taking part in at a excessive degree proper now.
“He’s beginning to push via this and he’s gaining sufficient helpful reps, expertise, he’s not letting the grind of the season weigh him down and he’s getting higher,” Campbell stated of Arnold.
Campbell would go on to say he notices related traits in Arnold that he noticed in Sewell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Alim McNeill, and others, in that he’s skipping previous the rookie wall and persevering with to raise his sport. Glenn echoed Campbell’s sentiments.
“Ice water in his veins, understands how we play, desires to problem folks in man protection, and actually understands so much higher find out how to play zone protection,” Glenn stated of Arnold. “So, as he continues to progress on this League, he’s simply going to get higher and higher and higher. And pay attention, we’re placing a whole lot of strain on this participant by the best way that we play, however there’s no different means that he would need it. So, I’m glad we’ve bought him for the easy incontrovertible fact that he’s going to be one of many high corners on this League as his years progress.”
Arnold ought to get a whole lot of motion on this sport, so he’ll have to proceed to raise his sport.
Key 10: Execute on particular groups
The Bills particular groups items have struggled all season and at the moment rank twenty ninth in DVOA. They’re coming off a sport the place they’d a number of gaffes, together with permitting a blocked punt to be returned for a landing, and solely placing 9 gamers on the sector on the ultimate punt of the sport.
The Lions will wish to preserve Buffalo’s offense in robust spots, and with their particular groups underperforming, Campbell sees a possibility for Detroit to take benefit.
“We want one thing out of our particular groups,” Campbell stated. “Our particular groups unit wants to point out up for us, subject place shall be large on this sport.”
When requested about potential strain with Campbell pointing to particular groups added worth this week, particular groups coordinator Dave Fipp alluded to the truth that the plan is to go about enterprise as normal, execute their assignments, and good issues will come from that—prefer it has all yr.
“So, for us, the objective is to go on the market and play nice, have 11 guys execute, do their job with every thing they’ve bought, and hopefully sooner or later the chance will current itself, and if that comes on particular groups, then nice,” Fipp stated. “I do know our guys will find yourself being prepared and making a play. I believe it’s onerous to go chase a play is my level. That’s actually when you find yourself getting in bother and also you attempt to make issues occur. I believe this sport’s all about execution, the groups that execute one of the best find yourself successful.”
The Lions have executed on particular groups all season and have been ranked the No. 1 particular groups DVOA unit within the NFL for the final two months. They certainly don’t should do something additional, merely take benefit when the Bills current a possibility.
