Europe ought to rally behind the fact {that a} profitable transition won’t solely assist Syrians however is the one technique of addressing the complete vary of its pursuits — resembling cementing democratic governance, securing sustainable circumstances to permit important Syrian refugee returns, and diluting Iranian and Russian affect within the nation.
If the transition fails, none of those targets will probably be met and the associated fee will probably be spiraling battle. It will finish the prospect of refugee returns and guarantee Syria stays a sizzling spot for destabilizing exterior interventions.
Of course, nobody needs to be beneath any phantasm as to the immense challenges going through Syria’s transition: HTS might revert again to its extremist roots and search absolute management; factional combating might escape between armed teams; a Turkish assault on Syrian Kurds might give the Islamic State group area to regroup; and the nation’s continued socioeconomic collapse, with 70 % of the inhabitants now requiring humanitarian help, might flip Syria right into a completely failed state.
Europe must work to assist forestall these outcomes, seizing the indicators indicating a constructive transition is feasible. These embrace the preliminary steps taken by HTS, resembling reaching out to minorities, defending state establishments and speaking about elections. Many in Europe query HTS’s sincerity, however we have to check it.
Furthermore, Europe can lean on the deep experience constructed up by Syrian civil society throughout 14 years of warfare, in addition to the inhabitants’s utter exhaustion with battle. Both might play a strong function in renewing the nation’s governance and pressuring armed actors towards a power-sharing settlement. Success relies on this being a Syrian-led course of, and European officers shouldn’t get entangled within the transition’s micro-dynamics.
However, the bloc can nonetheless play an essential function.
