The query of whether or not Russia will lose its two navy bases in Syria following the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime will seemingly not be answered shortly.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Monday that discussing the matter was “untimely.” Russian media shops reported that the rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had assured Moscow the bases’ safety.
Though the info appear to help this, there has not been affirmation from different sources. Russia operates two navy bases in Syria — a naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean, which was established by the Soviets, and an air base at Khmeimim that was in-built 2015. The bases in Syria are Russia’s solely navy outposts exterior the previous Soviet Union and have been vital for the Kremlin’s actions in Africa and the Middle East.
“There is seen exercise of transport plane at Khmeimim however to not the extent {that a} full-blown evacuation will be spoken about,” stated Gustav Gressel, a protection knowledgeable who was beforehand on the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). He added that Russian ships had been at present within the Mediterranean “for maneuvers,” however not removed from Tartus.
“I assume that behind the scenes Russia will discover a deal to maintain the bases within the nation,” Gressel instructed DW. “If they’d been deserted, an evacuation would certainly be underway.”
Russia has softened its tone in direction of HTS
Military historian Colonel Markus Reisner stated that Russia’s naval base in Tartus is now “strategically extra vital” as a result of “forces will be projected into the Mediterranean from there.” Moscow’s air base in Khmeimim was essential to help the Assad regime in opposition to rebels, “however that’s not the case.”
For political scientist Mark Galeotti, the creator of “Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine,” each bases are ” crucial when it comes to Russian exercise in Mediterranean and Africa.”
He stated it was “putting” that only recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had described the group as “terrorists,” however by the weekend, “they had been being referred to as ‘rebel forces.'” Galeotti additionally identified that even earlier than Assad was faraway from energy, Moscow’s tone in direction of HTS had turn out to be “way more well mannered.”
What can Moscow supply HTS?
Russia is “actually hoping to achieve some sort of take care of HTS,” stated Galeotti. Although HTS is supported by Turkey, he stated “it does not wish to turn out to be a Turkish proxy. It will want some sort of allies and relationships.”
This is the place Russia comes into play.
“The Russians are cynical and pragmatic sufficient to be there. It offers [HTS] an opportunity to diversify from merely being depending on Ankara,” Galeotti stated. He additionally identified that Russia not solely had a navy presence in Syria but in addition had “a sure financial standing” and that Russia was Syria’s major buying and selling companion.
Burcu Ozcelik, a Middle East knowledgeable on the British assume tank RUSI, was not satisfied that the Syrian rebels can be so fast to adjust to Moscow’s needs.
“It is very uncertain that HTS will rush to be seen as allying with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin or greenlighting a long-term Russian navy presence on Syria’s Mediterranean coast,” Ozcelik stated. “Especially as Assad has been granted asylum on Russian territory.”
Ozcelik predicted that there can be prolonged negotiations by which “regional actors, like Russia and Iran, will attempt to reposition their international coverage pursuits vis a vis Syria.”
Where might the Russian navy go as an alternative of Syria?
If the Russian navy does have to depart Syria, albeit in installments, then the place will it go?
“The Russians do not actually have any good choices,” stated Galeotti. He stated that Assad’s Syria was so closely dependent that there was no comparable nation within the area.
Libya, the place Russia maintains contacts with General Khalifa Haftar and with whom Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group as soon as fought, is among the most often talked about choices. Western media have reported on Russia’s intention to determine a naval base in Libya.
Reisner stated he suspected that this might be in Tobruk. Galeotti doubted this may be attainable so shortly as there was no prior infrastructure. The identical utilized to Sudan, with which Russia had been in negotiations over a naval base within the Red Sea for years. “Wherever they go — Libya, Mali, Sudan, no matter — they won’t be in the identical place they had been in Syria,” he stated.
Little influence on conflict in Ukraine
The following query has additionally arisen on this context: If Russia withdraws its navy from Syria, what is going to this imply for its conflict in opposition to Ukraine? Galeotti stated there can be “negligible penalties” in that respect. He stated the dimensions of the forces Moscow might switch from Syria to the Ukrainian entrance can be insignificant.
Gressel took an analogous view. “For Ukraine, the excellent news [from Syria] is proscribed,” he stated, explaining that Russia had neither the capability nor the need to open a second entrance, whereas it was utilizing all its means to wage conflict in opposition to Ukraine.
This article was initially written in German.
