With the second NBA Cup within the books, the thrilling five-game Christmas Day slate behind us and the 2025 calendar simply days away, it is an ideal time to replicate on probably the most notable tendencies which have taken maintain all through the primary third of the season.
The Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are as sturdy as we thought they’d be, whereas the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets have been extraordinarily nice surprises, with every vying to be seen not solely nearly as good regular-season tales, however true title contenders.
And with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Indiana Pacers, two of final season’s convention finalists, becoming a member of contenders such because the Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns in convention play-in battles, the latter half of the season may make for a wild journey — particularly with the commerce deadline simply six weeks away.
With the brand new 12 months on the horizon, listed here are a handful of takeaways we have drawn from over the primary two months of the season, together with a large leap for San Antonio Spurs huge man Victor Wembanyama, two contenders going through reverse issues round their superstars and the way forward for the league’s 3-point explosion.
The Lakers have been worse with LeBron James on the court docket
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LeBron, Lakers survive late flurry from Curry in Christmas Day thriller
LeBron James & Co. pull by way of regardless of an early harm to Anthony Davis and defeat the Warriors 115-113 on Christmas Day.
As a 22-year veteran and the main scorer in NBA historical past, a lot of the statistical feats James achieves upon turning 40 years previous subsequent week will likely be firsts.
But within the midst of the Lakers’ up-and-down season — the dramatic Christmas Day win over the Warriors being the most recent chapter — LeBron has already achieved one he’d choose to reverse: For the primary time since James’ rookie season in 2003-04, his staff is worse whereas he is on the court docket than when he isn’t.
It’s well-understood that plus-minus metrics could be noisy, as they’re usually influenced by the various gamers who share the court docket, however the Lakers’ efficiency when James performs with out Anthony Davis (minus-12.1 factors per 100 possessions) is probably probably the most illustrative — and problematic. It represents a whopping reversal of 17 factors per 100 possessions from final season. In Monday’s loss to the Pistons, for example, Los Angeles was a plus-17 within the James-Davis minutes, however a minus-18 within the minutes James performed with out his fellow star.
James is a minus-107 total, the NBA’s second worst amongst those that play for a staff that might be within the postseason if the season ended at the moment. (Only Denver wing Julian Strawther, at minus-117, had a decrease plus-minus heading into the Christmas video games.) That makes for a stark distinction from the plus-218 James logged final season or the plus-214 he posted in 2022-23.
The backside line is that this: The 17-13 Lakers have been 8.7 factors worse per 100 possessions with James on the court docket than they have been with him off. That enormous net-rating hole is equal to the one between the 14-14 Wolves and the 7-22 Charlotte Hornets.
Nearly that total margin comes on protection, the place opposing groups are scoring 115.8 factors per 100 possessions towards Los Angeles when James is enjoying, the second-highest mark among the many Lakers’ rotation gamers. (Only rookie Dalton Knecht‘s 116.2 is larger.) But the staff provides up simply 106.5 factors per 100 when James takes breathers, which might be a top-five price within the league on a staff scale.
James, who’d been enjoying by way of a nagging foot harm, sat out a few video games earlier within the month and has regarded higher on protection since returning. Los Angeles has had the profile of a top-five protection within the 4 video games since James got here again.
Still, the Lakers face an uphill battle to develop into a contender within the West. An enormous issue will likely be whether or not James and the Lakers defend higher in his minutes on the court docket.
Wemby’s DPOY marketing campaign has begun
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Wemby, Mikal Bridges each prime 40 as Knicks outlast Spurs on Christmas
Victor Wembanyama and Mikal Bridges commute as they each eclipse 40 factors, however the Knicks squeak out a win on Christmas Day.
The development of the 20-year-old’s recreation is on show nightly in practically each regard; notably on protection, the place Wembanyama has regarded dominant, even in comparison with his spectacular rookie season.
In the previous 4 video games, the Frenchman has compiled 29 blocks, and his complete of 95 this season are 31 greater than the next-closest participant. Equally spectacular: He has been whistled for just one goaltending name all season. (It helps that he has a median wrist peak of 9.42 toes on his contests, the NBA’s highest, per Second Spectrum.)
But it is not merely the photographs that Wembanyama returns to sender that he is affecting. Aside from the deterrent impact that he has on shooters, Wembanyama additionally forces drivers to hurry photographs due to their worry of rejection. He’s holding shooters on the basket to a dismal 48.9% capturing, practically 14 share factors worse than their averages. (Both metrics are one of the best within the league amongst gamers who’ve challenged 150 such photographs this season.) Last season, for comparability, gamers shot 53.7% towards Wembanyama, which was about 11 share factors off of their common — good for eleventh finest within the NBA on the time.
Denver has a painfully apparent downside
After a rocky 2-3 begin, with these first two wins coming in additional time towards the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors, the Nuggets received 5 of their subsequent six. Still, the staff hasn’t solved its largest downside: It cannot maintain its personal every time its three-time MVP takes a seat.
Nikola Jokic, averaging a career-best 30.9 factors to go together with 12.5 rebounds and 9.7 assists, has been incredible — even by his personal MVP-caliber requirements. Denver has blasted foes by 211 factors with him on the court docket however have been outscored by 118 when he is on the bench. Look no additional than the Dec. 3 recreation towards the Golden State Warriors, through which Denver received the Jokic minutes by 23, however misplaced his bench minutes by 19.
It has been a well-known story all season for the Nuggets, who’ve misplaced second quarters, when their second string usually will get its most enjoying time, by a median of 9.1 factors per 100 possessions. Only the Wizards (4-23), Hornets (7-22) and the New Orleans Pelicans (5-25) have managed to fare worse. Even with free agent newcomer Russell Westbrook enjoying properly, the Nuggets’ bench has been among the many weaker models within the league, even when the staff’s second- or third-best participant is sharing the court docket with the reserves.
Case in level: When Jamal Murray is enjoying with the opposite 4 starters on the bench, Denver is being outscored by 5.1 factors per 100 possessions in 75 minutes. Even worse, when Michael Porter Jr. is on the court docket with out some other starters, the Nuggets are being overwhelmed by greater than 60 factors per 100 possessions in 65 minutes. Neither bodes properly for a membership that is nonetheless assessing what it has when it comes to position gamers however might want to survive at the very least a couple of minutes per recreation come postseason with out Jokic on the court docket.
The NBA is trying into the continued 3-point explosion
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Caleb Martin performs Grinch for Boston devoted with back-to-back 3s
Caleb Martin steals Christmas from Celtics followers with two triples in a row for the 76ers.
Last week, NBA commissioner Adam Silver stated he and his staffers are listening to the elevated position of the 3-point shot within the sport. But ought to they? Are the long-range jumpers getting extra consideration than they deserve? The reply is blended.
Yes, groups are taking 37.6 3s per recreation — up from 35.1 final season — the very best common in league historical past. But on the identical time, jumpers as a complete are literally down from the place they had been two seasons in the past (53.4% of all shot makes an attempt versus 53.8% in 2022-23).
Perhaps probably the most attention-grabbing: The leaguewide quantified shot high quality (qSQ) on 3s — which means the probability of a shot getting in whereas bearing in mind a shooter’s distance and the closest defender’s proximity — is the very best since Second Spectrum monitoring knowledge was first logged in 2013-14. With the seems to be turning into higher and extra environment friendly, groups have little cause to take fewer of them.
If something, it means that the league must do extra — maybe permitting extra physicality on protection — to raised equip defenses which can be attempting to cowl an more and more spaced-out flooring.
ESPN Research’s Matt Williams contributed to this story.
