BEIRUT (AP) — The final time Syrian President Bashar Assad was in deep trouble was 10 years in the past, on the peak of the nation’s civil warfare, when his forces misplaced management over elements of the biggest metropolis, Aleppo, and his opponents had been closing in on the capital, Damascus.
Back then, he was rescued by his chief worldwide backer, Russia, and longtime regional ally Iran, which together with Lebanon’s highly effective Hezbollah militia helped Assad’s forces retake Aleppo, tipping the warfare firmly in his favor.
Now, as insurgents pursue a shock offensive that rapidly captured not simply Aleppo, however the important thing metropolis of Hama and a string of different cities throughout the nation’s northwest, the Syrian chief seems to be largely on his personal.
Russia is preoccupied with its warfare in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which at one level despatched 1000’s of its fighters to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong battle with Israel. Iran, in the meantime, has seen its proxies throughout the area degraded by Israeli airstrikes.
Moreover, Syrian troops are exhausted and hollowed out by 13 years of warfare and financial crises, with little will left to struggle.
So will Assad’s rule collapse within the close to future?
“The coming days and weeks might be important in figuring out whether or not the insurgent offensive poses an existential menace to the Assad regime or whether or not the regime manages to regain its footing and push again on current insurgent positive factors,” mentioned Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with the United States Institute for Peace.
“While weakened and distracted, Assad’s allies are unlikely to easily cave to the rebels’ offensive,” she wrote in an evaluation.
Not out of the woods
Until lately, it appeared that Syria’s president was nearly out of the woods. He by no means actually gained the long-running civil warfare, and huge elements of the nation had been nonetheless outdoors his management.
But after 13 years of battle, it appeared that the worst was over and that the world was able to neglect. Once seen as a regional pariah, Assad noticed Arab nations warming as much as him once more, renewing ties and reinstating Syria’s membership within the Arab League. Earlier this 12 months, Italy additionally determined to reopen its embassy in Damascus after a decade of strained relations.
In the aftermath of one of many world’s largest humanitarian crises, help teams and worldwide donors in Syria started pivoting towards spending extra on the nation’s restoration than on emergency help, offering a lifeline for Syrians and restoring primary companies.
But then the sudden offensive launched by insurgents on Nov. 27 reignited the warfare and caught everybody off guard with its scope and velocity.
It additionally left Syria’s neighbors anxious, cautious that violence and refugees may spill throughout borders and apprehensive in regards to the rising affect of Islamist teams, a serious concern for many of Syria’s Arab neighbors.
Geopolitical shifts
Analysts say a confluence of geopolitical developments starting with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, adopted by the Israel-Hamas warfare in Gaza that began on Oct. 7, 2023, helped create the chance for Assad’s opponents to pounce.
As the rebels superior this previous week, Syrian forces appeared to soften away, placing up no resistance, with a number of experiences of defection. Russian forces carried out occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s chief in Lebanon mentioned the group will proceed to help Syria, however made no point out of sending fighters once more.
“The insurgent assault underscores the precarious nature of regime management in Syria,” Yacoubian wrote.
“Its sudden eruption and the velocity with which insurgent teams managed to overhaul Aleppo … expose the advanced dynamics that reside just under the floor in Syria and may rework superficial calm into main battle.”
Aron Lund, a Syria knowledgeable with Century International, a New York-based assume tank and a researcher with the Swedish Defense Research Agency, mentioned the developments in Syria are a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia and Iran.
“They too had been absolutely shocked by what occurred, they usually have all types of useful resource constraints,” together with Russia’s warfare in Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanon and Syria.
Exhausted and damaged
While the nation’s battle traces have been largely stalemated since 2020, Syria’s financial woes have solely multiplied previously few years.
The imposition of U.S. sanctions, a banking disaster in neighboring Lebanon and an earthquake final 12 months contributed to the truth that nearly all Syrians face excessive monetary hardship.
That has brought about state establishments and salaries to wither.
“If you may’t pay your troopers a residing wage, then possibly you may’t count on them to remain and struggle when 1000’s of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund mentioned. “It is simply an exhausted, damaged and dysfunctional regime” to start out with.
Part of the insurgents’ try to reassert their grip on Aleppo, town the place they had been ousted in 2016 after a grueling navy marketing campaign, was to situation a name to authorities troopers and safety businesses to defect, granting them what they referred to as “safety playing cards,” which supply some type of amnesty and assurances that they gained’t be hunted down.
The spokesman for the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, mentioned greater than 1,600 troopers have utilized for the playing cards over two days in Aleppo metropolis.
Hundreds of defectors lined up outdoors metropolis police stations Thursday to register their particulars with the insurgents.
Hossam al-Bakr, 33, initially from Hama who served in Damascus and defected 4 years earlier to Aleppo, mentioned he got here to “settle his place” and get a brand new ID.
The laminated card handed out to every defector was titled the “defection card.” It confirmed the title, ID quantity and place of service of every defector. It is issued by “The General Command: Military Operations Room.”
On Thursday, Maj. Mohamed Ghoneim, who was in control of registering the defectors, mentioned greater than 1,000 troopers or law enforcement officials got here to register. Some who had been in possession of their official weapons handed them over, he added.
“There are 1000’s who need to apply,” he mentioned.
Charles Lister, a longtime Syria knowledgeable, mentioned whereas many of the worldwide neighborhood has written off the battle as both frozen or completed, the armed opposition has by no means given up and has been coaching for such a state of affairs for years.
A ragtag group of militias, suffering from infighting and rivalry, spent years getting ready and organizing, propelled by a dream to regain management of territory from Assad.
“The regime has been extra susceptible during the last 12 months or two than it has maybe been all through the whole thing of the battle,” Lister mentioned. “And it has gotten used to the concept that if it might wait issues out, it can in the end show to be the victor.”
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Karam reported from London.
