The 2024 NFL season marks the fifth year of the 14-team playoff bracket. The league’s choice to expand the playoffs from 12 groups to 14 was designed, in fact, to generate extra money. Adding a group in every convention and eradicating the first-round bye that had beforehand been afforded to the No. 2 seed meant two further playoff video games, leading to a whole lot of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} for the league’s homeowners.
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With 5 seasons of wild-card rounds below our belts and the College Football Playoff increasing to 12 groups this season, this can be a pure time to take the temperature of the NFL postseason. What is it undertaking past the cash? Are the playoffs extra entertaining for followers? With almost half of the league’s groups making it to the postseason, has the postseason been diluted? Should the NFL change the format once more? (Lions broad receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown actually thinks so.)
Starting with classes from the primary 5 years of the 14-team period, let’s consider how the league might tweak issues, for higher or worse.
Jump to: Six proposed format changes
How has the 14-team bracket affected the NFL?
1. The No. 7 seed has principally been cannon fodder. Facing a No. 2 seed that may have beforehand loved a first-round bye, the ten No. 7 seeds groups since 2020 have collectively gone 1-9. The solely 7-seed to win was in 2023, when the Packers stomped the Cowboys 48-32. This season, the Packers lost by 12 points to the Eagles because the 7-seed over the weekend, whereas the 7-seed Broncos gave up 31 unanswered points to the Bills after an early landing.
It was thrilling to see Jordan Love and the Packers in final season’s bracket, however most 7-seeds have not precisely seemed like Super Bowl contenders. Were Bears followers excited concerning the possibilities of Mitchell Trubisky and their 8-8 group in 2020? Did a Dolphins group limping to the end with Skylar Thompson below heart have excessive hopes in 2022? Probably not. The 7-seed has principally given flawed groups the precise to get stomped on the highway.
By play-by-play metric DVOA, although, the 7-seed hasn’t superior horrible groups into the postseason. More typically, it has added a group that deserved to get in primarily based on pure efficiency. The common seventh seed, by DVOA, has been the league’s Eleventh-best group in soccer coming into the playoffs. That consists of two top-six groups from 2024 — Packers (fourth) and Broncos (sixth).
The solely group that had no enterprise getting in was the 2021 Steelers, who have been outscored by 55 factors and ranked twenty fourth within the league by DVOA. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) pegged them because the Twentieth-best group that season. They gained two regular-season video games towards playoff groups all season, after which Patrick Mahomes threw for 404 yards with 5 touchdowns towards them in a 42-21 Chiefs wild-card victory.
2. The prime seeds are nonetheless reaching the Super Bowl on the similar fee. With just one group in every convention incomes a bye below the 14-team format, groups have been extra incentivized to land the No. 1 seed. Theoretically, it ought to pave a clearer path to a Super Bowl, as these groups are the one ones that may’t be upset within the wild-card spherical and get to face the simplest opponent left of their bracket at house till the Super Bowl.
It’s an excellent smaller pattern than the one I’m utilizing elsewhere on this piece, because it’s unknown which group will make it to the title sport this season, however issues have not shifted dramatically. So far, 50% of the 1-seeds within the 14-game format have made it to the Super Bowl. The solely championship sport during which each prime seeds superior via the bracket was Super Bowl LVII, when the Chiefs beat the Eagles.
From 2002 (when the league expanded to 32 groups and developed into its present divisional construction) to 2019 (the ultimate 12 months of the 12-team playoff), guess what share of No. 1 seeds made it to the Super Bowl? Exactly 50%. Five of these 18 seasons ended with 1-seeds dueling within the championship. In the one-team bye format, there is no proof prime seeds have been any extra profitable than they have been previously.
3. The worth proposition of the 2-seed has modified. If No. 7 seeds are 1-9 since 2020, which means No. 2 seeds are 9-1 within the wild-card spherical below the brand new format. Facing seemingly overmatched groups appears like a profit to pushing for the No. 2 seed, however it’s additionally a step down from the earlier 12-team playoff, when the No. 2 seed earned a bye to the divisional spherical.
Before, the distinction between the 1- and 2-seeds wasn’t as important. Though groups would somewhat play the lowest-seeded group within the divisional spherical and host a possible 1-2 matchup within the convention title sport, each franchises obtained to take off for the wild-card spherical. Now, the 2-seed would not get that further week to relaxation.
Will groups cease caring concerning the No. 2 seed? There’s just one instance of a group concretely passing up a possibility to compete for that spot. In 2020, the Steelers sat Ben Roethlisberger and several other stars within the closing sport of the season, although a win and a Bills loss might have given them the 2-seed. (The Bills won, so it would not have mattered.) The 2022 Vikings rotated their starters out within the second half of a Week 18 game towards the Bears to maintain alive their possibilities of claiming the 2-seed, however they have been already forward by a number of scores.
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What adjustments might the league contemplate? Time to placed on our pondering caps. The league would not essentially have to make any adjustments to the postseason, however is there something it might do to enhance the standard of play and/or make the tip of the common season extra significant? Let’s run via some choices and weigh the professionals, cons and plausibility of every:
Option No. 1: Go again to a 12-team playoff
Pros: There could be fewer groups perceived to be hopeless coming into the postseason, though as I discussed above, these 7-seeds are higher than most suppose. There hasn’t been a 7-seed make a deep run but, however provided that 6-seeds such because the 2010 Packers won a Super Bowl, a 7-seed operating the desk in all probability will occur ultimately. A 12-team playoff would presumably return to the two-bye system, which might make the 2-seed extra precious, albeit on the expense of the 1-seed.
Cons: There could be two fewer playoff video games. The NFL would lose the $140 million in tv rights charges it receives on a yearly foundation from these offers, plus the income generated from these video games. And because of this …
Plausibility: Nil. There’s no method the league would return to the 12-team playoff. And whereas the No. 2 vs. No. 7 video games have principally been uncompetitive, I used to be shocked to see that groups making it into the playoffs because the 7-seed have been principally good, in response to DVOA. I’m undecided there ought to be a push to cut back the playoff dimension, even when it have been potential.
Option No. 2: Move to a 16-team playoff
Pros: What about moving into the wrong way? Adding two extra groups would imply half the league makes it into the postseason, which might theoretically create extra significant motion within the closing weeks of the common season. More playoff spots means extra groups having one thing to play for in early January, which might in all probability imply fewer video games during which a group that definitely isn’t tanking trots out its third-string quarterback down the stretch.
And whereas it is simple to think about undeserving sub-.500 groups sneaking into the postseason by advantage of including an 8-seed, that is not the case. The 9-8 Bengals and 10-7 Seahawks would have gotten into an expanded subject this season. Joe Burrow within the wild-card spherical is enjoyable, proper? Remember how thrilling it was when the 2022 Lions knocked the Packers out of the playoffs within the closing sport of the season? In the 16-team world, that win would have been a play-in sport and pushed Dan Campbell’s group into the postseason.
It would additionally make the league extra money by advantage of including playoff video games. Though NFL income would not matter to me otherwise you, this feature could be extra interesting to NFL homeowners than the concept of eradicating two playoff video games.
Cons: The solely lifelike approach to do a 16-team playoff could be to do an eight-team bracket in every convention, which might imply no bye for the primary seed. Leaving play-in video games apart, the NBA and NHL have managed to do a 16-team playoff bracket with none byes for a few years, and the NCAA match is 4 16-team brackets with none groups getting every week off. But soccer is understandably a special animal.
Plausibility: Slim. The league would undoubtedly love extra income, however there could be important pushback from groups that need to earn the precise to relaxation for the wild-card spherical. It might additionally take away incentive from groups to play onerous late within the season, provided that the advantage of touchdown the 1-seed could be decreased to home-field benefit and probably simpler opponents inside their bracket. This may appear extra lifelike down the road, maybe in a universe during which the NFL has 18 regular-season video games and provides a number of enlargement groups.
Option No. 3: Re-seed the playoffs primarily based on file, no matter the place every group completed inside its division
Pros: This has come up extra typically in 2024, because the Vikings turned the first 14-win wild-card team in league historical past. While groups within the NFC South spent Week 18 seemingly sputtering of their makes an attempt to clinch the division, I can perceive why individuals felt the Vikings deserved a house sport greater than the Buccaneers or Falcons.
Guaranteeing a group a playoff spot for successful its division is smart, and there could be some actually ugly end-of-season eventualities if all 4 groups in a division don’t have any hope of creating the postseason. But guaranteeing these groups a matchup towards a a lot better group at house? It’s not wild to think about a situation during which that does not must happen. There would even be an incentive for groups which have gained their divisions earlier than Week 18, like this season’s Texans, to maintain competing for a house playoff sport.
In this reseeded situation, the one change within the AFC this season would have been the Chargers internet hosting the Texans. The NFC would have a completely completely different postseason image. The Eagles would have performed the Rams within the wild-card spherical versus the divisional spherical. The Vikings would have hosted the Bucs. The Commanders would have performed the Packers at house. Doesn’t that really feel extra like the most effective groups are rewarded?
Cons: NFL schedules are principally outlined by the division during which groups play, which might give good groups a possibility to rack up a gaudy file in a weaker division. In 2012, for instance, the Ravens completed because the 4-seed after they gained the AFC North with a 10-6 file whereas going through the second-toughest schedule in the AFC. In this situation, the 5-seed Colts would have jumped them for a house sport, having gone 11-5 towards the league’s best schedule, together with solely three wins over groups with successful data. Is {that a} fairer system?
It took going again over a decade to seek out an instance when a schedule-induced flip would have created an unfair situation, so possibly it would not occur all that usually if the league shifted to this format. Then once more, the 14-3 Vikings additionally have been dominated on a neutral field in Arizona by the 10-7 Rams, so possibly we’re overly involved about what’s honest by way of house playoff video games.
Plausibility: Reasonable. I believe there will likely be dialog about this through the offseason, although I’d be shocked if the league truly modified the format so quickly. History tells us there will not be as many 13- or 14-win wild-card groups, so the form of excessive instance that cries out for a structural change in all probability won’t occur typically.
Option No. 4: Take away house playoff video games from divisional champs with out successful data
Pros: OK, this one appears extra lifelike. Hosting a playoff sport would turn out to be the NFL’s equal of turning into bowl-eligible — a group needing 9 wins to qualify. If it wins its division with a sub-.500 file, because the 2022 Buccaneers (8-9) and 2020 Commanders (7-9) did, its first-round matchup could be on the highway at the most effective wild-card group. Given that these groups each misplaced badly at house to the Cowboys and Bucs, respectively, it is robust to make the argument they deserved to play at house.
Cons: Things do not all the time go that method. In 2010, a 6-9 Seahawks group clinched the division with a win over the Rams in Week 17. Instead of enjoying an 11-5 Saints group in New Orleans, they hosted Drew Brees & Co. in Seattle. What occurred subsequent registered on the Richter Scale. Those Seahawks rode home-field benefit to one of many greatest postseason upsets in latest reminiscence.
Plausibility: This might occur! No NFL group needs to win its division and miss out on the income of internet hosting a playoff sport, however for each 8-9 group that may lose its proper to a house sport, there’s one other 12-5 group that may profit from getting its sport at house. It’s theoretically potential a sub-.500 group could possibly be caught in a brutal division and win eight video games towards a troublesome schedule, however I do not see any latest examples. This one looks like a winner, even when it would not play out typically.
Option No. 5: Only re-seed the wild playing cards throughout conferences
Pros: Keeping the AFC and NFC separated till the Super Bowl felt significant proper after the merger, however in 1971, the eventual champion Cowboys performed solely three video games towards AFC competitors earlier than the Super Bowl. With the transfer to the 17-game schedule, the 2024 champion could have performed 5 video games towards groups from the opposite convention.
Under this proposal, the 4 division champions within the AFC and NFC would keep on their respective sides of the brackets, however the six wild-card groups could be seeded by reverse order within the standings towards the hardest general competitors. Tiebreakers would turn out to be trickier since they’d cross conferences, however the league might use the NFL draft order tiebreakers as a foundation for deciding ties.
In this season’s playoffs, that may have meant a completely completely different set of matchups. The Eagles would have hosted the Broncos. The Bills would have landed the Steelers, protecting issues within the AFC. There would have been one other Harbaugh Bowl with the Ravens going through the Chargers. The Rams would have hosted the Packers, the Buccaneers-Commanders matchup would have stayed the identical and the Vikings would have confronted the Texans, the weakest of the eight division winners.
Even in a season during which 4 of the six video games would have been AFC-AFC and NFC-NFC matchups, would not that bracket really feel extra contemporary and enjoyable? There’s an precise reward for being the most effective wild-card group, and there are matchups that would not usually occur within the postseason. There will likely be years during which each AFC and NFC groups would compete for a similar playoff spot on the finish of the season. The Seahawks, for instance, would have missed out on a playoff berth to the 10-7 Steelers and Broncos by advantage of two wins within the power of schedule calculations.
In seasons during which group high quality is closely weighted towards one convention or the opposite, worthy groups would not miss out on the expense of lesser groups on the opposite facet. In 2020, a 10-6 Dolphins group did not make the playoffs within the AFC, whereas the 8-8 Bears got in on the opposite facet of the bracket.
After the wild-card spherical, the bracket could be reseeded once more every week. In the 2024 bracket, that may imply … the very same matchups which might be taking place in actuality. It would not all the time produce some out-of-nowhere AFC-NFC battles, however the playoffs would really feel brisker and ship newer video games.
Cons: Well, not everyone likes new matchups. There would not be as many eventualities during which the Ravens and Steelers play one another for the third time in a season. That did not precisely result in an exciting matchup on this season’s wild-card spherical, however these third video games between divisional rivals could be enjoyable. I’m additionally simply undecided there’s an enormous urge for food for cross-conference playoff matchups amongst everybody, even when they’re enjoyable to me.
Plausibility: Probably not. This would appear like extra work than it is value, and homeowners would in all probability favor the familiarity of going through a longtime rival than a group they see as soon as each 4 years. With so many potential opponents in every spherical, scouting would even be a nightmare, which might result in sloppier video games.
Option No. 6: Let groups select their opponents within the wild-card spherical
Pros: This could be unbelievable, providing an actual profit for ending because the 2-seed in every convention. In this situation, instantly after the ultimate regular-season sport Sunday evening, there could be a stay present the place the higher-seeded groups selected their opponent for wild-card weekend. The 2-seed would have its decide of the 5-, 6- or 7-seed. The 3-seed would then select between the 2 remaining choices, and the 4-seed would find yourself with no matter matchup stays.
The NFC might need performed out because it did in actual life with this rule in place, however the AFC might need gone in a different way. Would the No. 2 seed Bills have picked the Broncos, or would they’ve most well-liked to face a flailing Steelers group? Would the No. 3 seed Ravens have gone for the Broncos, or would they’ve picked a Texans group they blew out twice a 12 months in the past?
From there, the league might select to re-seed matchups, play out the bracket because it taken care of the preliminary votes or let the highest seeds decide once more for the divisional spherical. (Would the Lions decide the Commanders or the Rams?) This would reward groups that performed higher within the common season by giving them extra management over their postseason opponent. The Professional Women’s Hockey League adopted this method for figuring out its four-team playoff bracket, and I’d like to see it within the NFL.
Cons: I’m hardly the primary particular person to give you this concept, and everybody else who introduced it up for his or her respective sports activities has the identical critique: Coaches would by no means go for this. Teams are often frightened of giving their opponents something resembling bulletin-board materials earlier than the playoffs. The Rams used Lions coach Dan Campbell saying he would see Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell in two weeks as a rallying cry earlier than their blowout win over Minnesota. Imagine an NFL coach occurring digicam and saying he needs to play a sure group. The first upset would get anyone fired.
Plausibility: Never taking place. It could be enjoyable, although.
