The House is anticipated to have 434 members current. The one seat anticipated to be vacant is that of former Rep. Matt Gaetz.
Members can be known as individually and vote by calling out a reputation. To be reelected as speaker, Johnson will want a majority. The magic quantity is not set in stone, which is why issues can get a bit difficult. It might change primarily based on attendance, and whether or not members vote for a named candidate or just report themselves as “current.”
So let’s run by some situations.
If all 215 Democrats present up and unite behind their chief, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Johnson will solely have the ability to lose one Republican who votes for an additional named candidate:
- Jeffries: 215
- Johnson: 218
- Other candidate: 1
- 218 out of 434 = A majority for Johnson
If he loses a second Republican to a different named candidate, he wouldn’t have the magic quantity for a majority:
- Jeffries: 215
- Johnson: 217
- Other candidate: 2
- 217 out of 434 = Not a majority
He might in concept lose one GOP vote to a different named candidate, and afford one different Republican defection as long as that particular person data “current” and does not vote for another candidate. That’s as a result of the quantity he’d want for a majority could be decrease:
- Jeffries: 215
- Johnson: 217
- Other candidate: 1
- Present: 1
- 217 out of 433 = A majority for Johnson
He can’t lose a GOP vote to a named candidate if two Republicans vote “current,” nonetheless:
- Jeffries: 215
- Johnson: 216
- Other candidate: 1
- Present: 2
- 216 out of 432 = Not a majority for Johnson
He might lose three defectors if all of them vote “current”:
- Jeffries: 215
- Johnson: 216
- Present: 3
- 216 out of 431 = A majority for Johnson
However, we all know this final situation will not occur, as a result of Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky has already instructed reporters he will not vote for Johnson and can vote for an alternate candidate.
Currently, Massie is the one “no.” He instructed reporters in December that he had a “few” alternate candidates in thoughts, however would not say who they had been.
There are a number of Republicans who’ve publicly stated they’re undecided on Johnson, together with Reps. Chip Roy, Andy Biggs, Victoria Spartz, Tim Burchett and Ralph Norman. Johnson met with a number of of the holdouts on Thursday.
The key benefit for Johnson is that no different Republican is presently difficult him or has publicly expressed curiosity in doing so.
