When Vladimir Putin took the reins of energy in a post-Soviet Russia in shambles a quarter-century in the past, he instantly set about restoring Moscow’s standing as a world energy.
It took 15 years, however Russia heralded its navy intervention within the Syrian civil struggle as proof of its return as a drive to be reckoned with on the worldwide stage.
Moscow leveraged that picture to develop its affect all through the Middle East and past as a counterweight to the West.
Now, the autumn of the federal government of President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally of Moscow, has dealt a severe blow to Russia’s great-power ambitions.
“Putin’s navy journey in Syria was designed to exhibit that Russia is a superb energy and may mission its affect overseas,” mentioned Phillip Smyth, a Middle East skilled. “Losing Syria is a large slap within the face for Putin.”
Assad’s ouster represents not solely a reputational hit to Russia however doubtless a serious strategic setback.
Syria is house to 2 main Russia navy installations: an air base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus. The latter is Russia’s solely warm-water naval base and offers Moscow entry to the Mediterranean Sea.
“Russia has used its bases in Syria to mission its energy each into the japanese Mediterranean and into the broader Middle East,” mentioned Smyth.
High-Maintenance Asset
Russia’s navy intervention in Syria in 2015 modified the tide of the struggle. Moscow’s devastating aerial campaigns towards insurgent positions helped the Syrian Army regain swaths of territory and preserve Assad in energy.
Moscow’s Syria marketing campaign got here a 12 months after its invasion of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in addition to its help for separatist forces in Ukraine’s east.
Moscow capitalized on its involvement in each Syria and Ukraine to promote itself as an influence able to difficult the United States, NATO, and the West typically whereas increasing its world attain from the Mediterranean to Africa and Latin America.
Following Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Syria turned extra of an asset for Moscow, consultants say, whereas additionally presenting the problem of sustaining navy campaigns on two fronts.
With the anticipated fall of Russian navy property in Syria, following the collapse of Assad’s authorities, the duty has turn out to be much more daunting.
Russia is already closely invested in a serious counteroffensive to regain captured territory in its southwestern Kursk area that it misplaced to Ukraine, to the purpose that it’s counting on assist from North Korean troops. At the identical time, it’s making an attempt to take as a lot territory as it may in Ukraine’s east earlier than doable peace talks.
Russia navy amenities alongside the Mediterranean coast in western Syria could possibly be overrun by militants led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist group, and its allies.
Aaron Zelin, senior fellow on the Washington Institute, mentioned Russia merely doesn’t have the identical firepower at its disposal to guard its property in Syria.
“It is necessary to keep in mind that Russia has to cope with its bigger struggle in Ukraine now in comparison with once they first went in Syria in 2015,” mentioned Zelin.
“Russia additionally has its property combating in sub-Saharan Africa, too. And in contrast to a decade in the past, when Russia had the Wagner Group led by [the deceased Yevgeny] Prigozhin … Russia would not have the identical degree of capability or functionality to cope with this now in the identical approach.”
Zelin mentioned shedding the Tartus naval base, particularly, could be an “extraordinarily large loss for Russia.”
“It’s Russia’s solely warm-water port that it may use for its naval actions and energy projection,” he mentioned. “Losing it might primarily lower Russia out of the core of the Middle East.”
Moscow didn’t ship floor troops to assist Damascus, which fell to the HTS and its allies on December 8. Russia carried out dozens of air strikes for the reason that militants launched their offensive towards Assad’s forces in late November, however Moscow’s restricted intervention did little to cease the insurgent advance.
Russia can pay an enormous worth for its failure in Syria, consultants say.
The fall of Assad is a “main blow to Russia’s declare of nonetheless being a world energy when it comes to sustaining navy and political affect overseas,” mentioned Hamidreza Azizi, fellow on the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
From there, actors in different areas reminiscent of Latin America and Africa would possibly “begin rethinking their ties and their reliance on Russia as nicely,” he mentioned.
