Bad information instantly hits Microsoft
Republished on December 4 with Microsoft’s affirmation on replace restrictions.
Microsoft has a stunning new downside on its fingers because it struggles to persuade 800 million Windows 10 customers to improve to Windows 11. With its widespread ageing OS approaching end-of-support subsequent October and gross sales of shiny new AI PCs not hitting the anticipated mark, this appears like being a essential vacation buying season.
As I reported on Monday, the newest Windows stats from November present a marked finish to the current acceleration we’ve seen in Windows 11 upgrades. After eight regular months of transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11, the unhealthy information is a sudden change in course. And whereas that shift solely accounts for round 1%—someplace between 10 and 15 million customers, the scenario is far worse in the important thing US market.
According to Statcounter, globally Windows 10 market share was up from 61% to 62% over the month, with Windows 11 dropping from greater than 35.5% to beneath 35%. But within the US, Windows 10 was up from 58% to 61%, with Windows 11 sharply down from almost 40% to beneath 37% after six months of regular rises.
Windows OS model market share – international
The international numbers fall throughout the margin of error to some extent, however the US numbers appear extra clear-cut. This change comes after Microsoft’s affirmation of a 12-month prolonged help possibility for Windows 1 customers from subsequent October. This will value $30 per PC, however for these cussed Windows 10 holdouts, it could possibly be price it.
We don’t know what’s pushed the particular conversions, however it may nicely be Windows 10 customers revering an improve now they know they will keep on Windows 10 with help—that means safety updates—by till; October 2026. And whereas Microsoft continues to nag customers to make thew change, these fixed advertisements and reminders should not proving as efficient as hoped.
Windows OS model market share – United States
The attention-grabbing twist to those Windows 10 numbers is the 400 million or so customers that don’t have the fitting {hardware} to improve. While there are numerous choices to improve on a non-compatible PC, Microsoft has simply firmed up its warning that doing so may cease additional updates and even invalidate any {hardware} warranties nonetheless in place.
There can also be the Copilot issue. Is there a view amongst Windows 10 customers needing a {hardware} improve that the lounger they go away this the less expensive that transfer will probably be? And with AI options nonetheless pretty restricted, there’s little draw back. We already know most {hardware} upgrades are nonetheless for primary units moderately than new AI options.
I’ve steered earlier than that the trend-line publish the ESU announcement will probably be attention-grabbing to look at, albeit it is a quicker change than anticipated. December’s numbers and the vacation season PC gross sales knowledge will ship a robust sign as to what 2025 will probably seem like. And then we can have the ESU take-up so as to add into the combination.
Microsoft has emphasised repeatedly that Windows 11 is a a lot safer and safer OS than Windows 10. And so this variation means 10-15 million customers now taking dangers they might in any other case be protected towards. Not excellent news.
The actually unhealthy information for Windows 10 customers is that Microsoft revealed a blogpost on Tuesday that basically slammed the door on any {hardware} backtrack in relation to Windows 11 upgrades. “With Windows 10 finish of help approaching,” it mentioned, “it’s essential to revisit a key minimal system requirement for Windows 11.”
This is all about TPM 2.0, in fact: “Let’s talk about the function of TPM and its worth for these of you who’ve made the transition to Windows 11. You’ll additionally discover ways to verify your TPM standing and how you can put together for Windows 11.”
“You know that Windows 10 is approaching finish of help,” the weblog continues. “In Windows 11, TPM 2.0 superior encryption methods provide extra versatile and important key administration for modern IT infrastructures, as in comparison with its predecessor, TPM 1.2. Integrating with options like Secure Boot and Windows Hello for Business, TPM 2.0 enhances safety by making certain that solely verified software program is executed and defending confidential particulars. It’s true that its implementation may require a change on your group. Yet it represents an essential step towards extra successfully countering right this moment’s intricate safety challenges.”
No again doorways and no u-turns, Microsoft has made clear. “TPM 2.0 is not only a advice—it’s a necessity for sustaining a safe and future-proof IT setting with Windows 11. And it’s an essential a part of the bigger Zero Trust technique, alongside Secure Boot, Credential Guard, and Windows Hello for Business.”
And so these 400 million machines that don’t make the minimize actually do like they’re heading for landfill websites, with customers having to improve by October 2026 on the newest. And whereas Microsoft does allow some upgrades on incompatible {hardware}, it solely does so the place customers agree their help and warranties probably finish.
