The New York Rangers signal goalie Igor Shesterkin to an eight-year contract extension with a $11.5 million AAV.
Shayna Goldman: Goalie contracts might be the trickiest to navigate as a result of it’s the place most of us know the least about and the one with essentially the most volatility.
Goaltending is unpredictable on a very good day, not to mention as a goaltender ages. So committing eight years to any goalie is usually a huge ask. Signing this huge of a long-term contract is much more daring.
But with Igor Shesterkin, that may be a wager value taking as a result of he’s the perfect on the earth proper now and the Rangers’ Stanley Cup hopes relaxation on him. His physique of labor within the common season has been elite. Even when he has slipped, like throughout final yr’s common season, he nonetheless rebounded to spectacular heights earlier than thriving in a playoff atmosphere.
Teams are inclined to pay their most dear gamers loads — Auston Matthews was signed to a $13.3 million cap hit final yr, Nathan MacKinnon is at $12.6 million and Connor McDavid goes to push issues even additional subsequent yr. Goaltenders often don’t attain these heights, and once they do, hassle typically follows.
Just have a look at the Sergei Bobrovsky contract that was maligned earlier than he hit his postseason stride in 2023 (and received the Cup in 2024). That was value 12.3 p.c of Florida’s wage cap in Year 1. That’s why contracts corresponding to Connor Hellebuyck’s (seven years at $8.5 million AAV) might be extra digestible. But current shifts within the goalie market do help the thought of somebody of Shesterkin’s caliber getting nearer to what they’re value.
Jeremy Swayman was paid like a top-five goalie in October, regardless of not having the observe file of a few of the finest on the earth, corresponding to Andrei Vasilevskiy. He didn’t actually have a full yr of expertise as a real No. 1 goalie when he signed that contract. Age is the opposite distinction between him and Shesterkin. Swayman’s deal covers ages 25 to 33, as in comparison with Shesterkin’s 29 to 37, which carries much more danger.
Swayman and Jake Oettinger are reminders of what superb No. 1 goalies are value. And that provides extra help to the concept these within the subsequent tier — corresponding to Shesterkin, who got here in as the perfect on this yr’s Player Tiers — are value much more. He is the exception to the rule that goaltenders shouldn’t be paid like a workforce’s MVP.
If the 2025-26 wage cap rises to the present projected mark of $92.5 million, this contract can be value 12.4 p.c of the Rangers’ cap in Year 1, which is a shade above Henrik Lundqvist’s cap-hit proportion of 12.3 in 2014-15.
It isn’t a query of whether or not Shesterkin is value $11.5 million proper now; it’s how this deal will age. Long-term offers are dangerous at any place, particularly for goalies, and that’s what lowers this contract grade. But the truth that the Rangers had been capable of hold the AAV under $12 million provides him a greater probability of enjoying as much as this worth in these later years.
Contract grade: B-plus
Fit grade: A
James Mirtle: I’m on the file as not loving huge goalie contracts. Far too typically, they blow up within the workforce’s face, particularly towards the again finish.
For just a few causes, nonetheless, Shesterkin is a particular case.
1. Over the previous 4 seasons, he has clearly established himself as one of many two finest goalies within the NHL, with an honest hole between himself, Hellebuyck and everybody else. Shesterkin has persistently stayed in that higher tier, too, putting first, fifth, 14th and seventh (this season thus far) in objectives saved above anticipated.
Unlike many goalies whose efficiency varies broadly from yr to yr, and who don’t present sufficient worth over a league-average netminder you would choose up in free company for much less, there’s vital worth added, given how irreplaceable Shesterkin has been.
2. Shesterkin will not be that previous. Carey Price’s landmark contract, the earlier file for AAV, began when he was 31. Same for Bobrovsky, the present proprietor of the second highest AAV, and Hellebuyck, whose seven-year, $8.5 million deal started this season.
Shesterkin is 28, which suggests starting subsequent yr, the Rangers can be shopping for two extra premium seasons (age 29 and 30 years) than lots of the opposite marquee goalies who’ve signed for giant cash. That issues, as he’ll be 36 coming into the ultimate season of the deal, an age at which he can plausibly nonetheless be a No. 1. And by then, the cap can be eight bajillion {dollars} anyway. Speaking of which …
3. The cap goes method up. Perhaps $11.5 million appears like a small fortune, however in opposition to a $97 million cap, it’s solely 11.8 p.c of the ceiling. When Price signed his deal, it was 13.2 p.c. Bobrovsky’s was 12.3 p.c. Even Vasilevskiy’s contract, which he signed after being a starter for less than three seasons, was 11.7 p.c of the cap.
Yes, Hellebuyck took a reduction in Winnipeg, however basically, Shesterkin’s deal is in the suitable ballpark for a goalie among the many recreation’s elite.
The different factor to consider is the place the Rangers are of their timeline. While they’ve some promising younger expertise, Artemi Panarin is 33 years previous and has one yr left on his deal. They’re purported to be in win-now mode, and the one cause they’re nonetheless in playoff place proper now could be the play of their goaltenders.
Playing rooster with Shesterkin and agent Maxim Moliver and letting them get near free company, the place so many mediocre groups are going to have acres of cap area, made no sense for New York.
Betting in your MVP does, even when there’s going to be danger right here within the again half of this deal.
Contract grade: B-minus
Fit grade: A
(Photo of Igor Shesterkin: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
