The Week 17 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with an ideal pair of Christmas matchups (Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans) and a Thursday night time NFC showdown (Seahawks-Bears). We have you ever lined with the whole lot you could know for the opening three video games.
Our NFL Nation reporters carry us what to know for each contest, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every recreation. The ESPN Research staff offers a serious stat to know and a betting nugget for every matchup, whereas our Football Power Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection and a take a look at the playoff image. NFL analyst Matt Bowen picks out game-plan keys, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds X elements. Finally, three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us ultimate rating picks for the three video games.
Let’s begin with the Chiefs and Steelers, who each have an opportunity to enhance their AFC playoff standing with a win Wednesday.
Jump to a matchup:
KC-PIT | BAL-HOU | SEA-CHI
Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET | Netflix | ESPN BET: KC -3 (43.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to observe: Pass safety has been an issue for the Chiefs, who’re on their fourth beginning left deal with of the season and may not have proper deal with Jawaan Taylor on Christmas due to a knee harm. That’s hardly ultimate in opposition to the Steelers and T.J. Watt, notably due to Patrick Mahomes‘ high ankle sprain. The one constructive for Kansas City is it activated receiver Hollywood Brown on Saturday, and he made a few clutch catches in his first recreation again from a preseason sternoclavicular injury. — Adam Teicher
Steelers storyline to observe: The Steelers entered Saturday’s 34-17 loss to the Ravens with one wholesome beginning cornerback in Joey Porter Jr. They left Baltimore with a slew of replacements enjoying many of the snaps. Donte Jackson (again) missed the sport, and a knee harm saved Porter out for many of the second half. But Santa Claus may carry some items to Pittsburgh. Jackson has an actual probability to play, and huge receiver George Pickens and security DeShon Elliott could be again within the fold. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Mahomes, taking up Mike Tomlin, enters this recreation with a 22-5 document (81.5% win price) in opposition to head coaches who’ve received the Super Bowl. That’s the second-highest profitable proportion by any beginning quarterback in such video games, trailing solely Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (82.4%). — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Steelers edge rushers Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig will mix for a minimum of 5 pressures. They’re each harmful move rushers and may very well be going through guard Joe Thuney having to play left deal with or D.J. Humphries getting back from harm. — Walder
Game-plan key: Coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs will want solutions for Cover 3. Tomlin’s protection has performed Cover 3 on 29.3% of opponent dropbacks this season, the fourth-highest price within the league. Given these tendencies, search for Reid to arrange Mahomes with three-level flood ideas that create intermediate throwing home windows, utilizing tight finish Travis Kelce as the first goal. — Bowen
What’s at stake: The Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field benefit in the event that they win or the Bills lose to the Jets on Sunday. The Steelers’ best path to profitable the AFC North is profitable their subsequent two video games and the Ravens dropping out. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X issue: Chiefs huge receiver Xavier Worthy. He ran the second-most routes for the Chiefs in Week 16, trailing solely Kelce. Worthy has had 9 or extra touches and a minimum of 19 fantasy factors in back-to-back video games. He is among the Chiefs’ prime two receiving choices and will stay busy in opposition to a Steelers protection that permits the Tenth-most receiving yards per recreation to receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are not the favourite to win the AFC North, per ESPN BET. Pittsburgh has +120 odds, whereas Baltimore leads at -155. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s decide: Chiefs 28, Steelers 20
Moody’s decide: Chiefs 23, Steelers 16
Walder’s decide: Chiefs 24, Steelers 23
FPI prediction: KC, 55.6% (by a mean of two.3 factors)
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET | Netflix | ESPN BET: BAL -5 (46.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to observe: Ex-Titans working again Derrick Henry will look to proceed his 2024 success in opposition to the Texans, his former AFC South rival. He has produced 102.2 dashing yards per recreation versus Houston, which is his fifth-highest common in opposition to any staff. Houston ranks Tenth in run protection (106.8 yards allowed per recreation) this season, however the Texans allowed 124 yards on the bottom to Kansas City on Sunday. — Jamison Hensley
Texans storyline to observe: The Texans are 2-12 in opposition to Baltimore in franchise historical past and had their playoff run ended by the Ravens final season. This matchup is a chief alternative for Houston to point out that it has solid the expertise hole and might go head-to-head with a staff that reached the AFC Championship Game final season with an MVP-caliber quarterback in Lamar Jackson. But the Texans can be with out wideout Tank Dell, who’s out for the season after dislocating his kneecap and tearing his ACL in opposition to the Chiefs. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans have performed the Ravens 4 instances since 2019, and Houston has been outscored by a mean of twenty-two.8 factors per recreation. Among groups which have met a minimum of 4 instances in that span, that’s the largest common points-per-game differential versus a single opponent. — ESPN Research
1:43
Mark Andrews to McAfee: Lamar is enjoying higher than ever
Ravens tight finish Mark Andrews joins “The Pat McAfee Show” and shares his pleasure about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry’s play and the staff’s constructive momentum.
Bold prediction: The Ravens will maintain the Texans below 14 factors. From Weeks 1-9, the Ravens may barely cease the move, rating twenty eighth in EPA allowed per dropback. But from Week 10 on, they rank first in the identical class. The Texans do not have an ideal floor recreation, regardless of a powerful begin to the season by Joe Mixon. I anticipate they’re going to battle to maneuver the ball in opposition to Baltimore. — Walder
Game-plan key: The Texans might want to create explosive performs within the move recreation versus Baltimore, so let’s give attention to the early down play-action ideas in Bobby Slowik’s system. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has accomplished 15 passes of 20 or extra air yards this season on first- and second-down play-action throws (Tenth-most within the league). Stroud can assault the schemed zone voids in the course of the sector, with huge receiver Nico Collins working the deep in-breakers. — Bowen
What’s at stake: The Ravens have a professional shot at profitable the AFC North title via three situations over the following two weeks. Baltimore must win its final two and Pittsburgh to lose one in all its final two. Or in Week 18, the Ravens must beat the Browns and the Steelers to lose to the Bengals. Or Baltimore must win one in all its final two video games and Pittsburgh to lose out. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X issue: Collins. After injuries to Stefon Diggs and Dell, Collins, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson are the Texans’ prime three receivers. Collins has been phenomenal, averaging 8.8 targets and 18.7 fantasy factors per recreation this season. It’s secure to say he’ll see a large goal share in opposition to the Ravens, contemplating the circumstances. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Jackson entered final week’s matchup in opposition to the Steelers with +650 odds to win NFL MVP, per ESPN Bet. His probabilities elevated to +375 after the Week 16 video games. Buffalo’s Josh Allen nonetheless leads at -500. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s decide: Ravens 30, Texans 20
Moody’s decide: Ravens 27, Texans 24
Walder’s decide: Ravens 27, Texans 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 63.7% (by a mean of 4.9 factors)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video | ESPN BET: SEA -3.5 (43.5 O/U)
Seahawks storyline to observe: The Seahawks are averaging 91.9 dashing yards per recreation, the third fewest within the NFL. They do not run it typically or nicely, rating thirtieth in designed rush price below first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Life may not get simpler for his or her run recreation in opposition to Chicago now that Kenneth Walker III is harm once more. The Seahawks’ lead again returned Sunday from a calf injury that sidelined him for 2 video games however then he suffered an ankle harm, which places his availability in query on a brief week. — Brady Henderson
Bears storyline to observe: Injuries to left deal with Braxton Jones and left guard Teven Jenkins compelled the Bears to deploy their fifteenth completely different offensive line mixture in a blowout loss to the Lions. Jones is done for the season as a consequence of a extreme left ankle harm, so Chicago now will depend on backups to guard Caleb Williams‘ blindside amid a two-month dropping streak. If Chicago loses its subsequent two video games, its 11 consecutive losses in a season will rank fourth behind the 2001 Panthers (15 straight), 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns (each 16 straight). — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Williams’ nine-game dropping streak is the second longest by any rookie quarterback taken No. 1 general since 1950. He trails solely Troy Aikman, who went 0-11 throughout his 1989 rookie marketing campaign with the Cowboys. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Seahawks edge Uchenna Nwosu will document his first sack of the season. Nwosu’s enjoying time has step by step elevated since being activated off injured reserve in Week 14. Though he has no sacks in 4 video games, he has a 17% move rush win price at edge (roughly common) and certain will see loads of Bears backup left deal with Larry Borom on Thursday. — Walder
Game-plan key: The Seattle protection has performed man protection on 47.4% of opponent dropbacks this season, the eleventh most within the league. That price may climb in opposition to Williams, who has averaged simply 5.4 yards per try and posted a 53.6 QBR versus man protection this season. And the Seahawks have the personnel within the secondary to problem the Bears’ huge receivers. — Bowen
What’s at stake: Seattle’s solely path to the playoffs is by profitable the NFC West. That can occur over the following two weeks if the Rams lose their final two video games or if the Seahawks win out and clinch power of victory (SOV) over Los Angeles. Read more. — ESPN Research
Fantasy X issue: Seahawks huge receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Seattle’s playoff hopes on the road, the second-year receiver may very well be key. Since Week 11, he has averaged 8.5 targets and 19.2 fantasy factors per recreation. The Bears’ protection permits the Tenth-most passing yards per recreation, organising an ideal alternative for the Seahawks to assault via the air. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: After dropping 34-17 to the Lions, the Bears at the moment are 4-2 ATS of their previous six as residence underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research
Kahler’s decide: Seahawks 27, Bears 20
Moody’s decide: Seahawks 26, Bears 19
Walder’s decide: Seahawks 24, Bears 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 50.1% (by a mean of 0.1 factors)
