I’m hesitant to again James Franklin in one other huge recreation.
Franklin-led groups are 1-16 straight up and 5-12 towards the unfold towards top-five groups. Franklin’s Lions haven’t crushed a top-five opponent since October 2016, dropping 11 straight through the stretch.
That stated, how “huge” is the Big Ten championship recreation? Both groups are within the College Football Playoff no matter consequence, and I’m not sure if Oregon wouldn’t quite be the five-seed, enjoying the 12-seed within the first spherical and the ACC or Big 12 Champion within the second.
Regardless, the matchup is favorable.
The Nittany Lions have pivoted to a extra rush-heavy strategy in current weeks, and they need to haven’t any points operating throughout a surprisingly weak Ducks rush protection. Oregon ranks outdoors the highest 70 nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, Rush Success Rate allowed, and Defensive Line Yards.
If Penn State can run the ball, it may hold Drew Allar out of apparent passing conditions and assist neutralize Oregon’s ferocious move rush.
On the opposite facet of the ball, Penn State’s protection is elite in any respect three ranges. The solely approach you possibly can beat the Lions is excessive, the place they’re susceptible to deep passing performs.
But Oregon isn’t overly explosive. Dillon Gabriel doesn’t have the strongest arm, and he lives within the short-to-intermediate space — his seven-yard common depth of goal ranks 148th out of 154 certified FBS quarterbacks.
Gabriel additionally struggles mightily beneath strain, so possibly Penn State’s equally lethal move rush can drive the Heisman Candidate into a number of key errors.
The decide: Penn State +3.5.
Texas (-3) over Georgia
Yes, Texas acquired bullied by Georgia in Week 8.
Nevertheless, there’s sufficient proof to imagine the Longhorns will enhance mightily upon that first head-to-head efficiency.
For starters, there have been 54 cases of two groups that performed within the common season re-meeting within the convention title recreation. Among the losers, 36 improved their scoring margin within the second assembly (67 %) by a median of seven.7 factors.
I additionally suppose the primary head-to-head assembly was nearer than the 30-15 rating signifies. Georgia solely outgained Texas by 24 yards, and Texas generated 5 extra first downs. The time-of-possession battle was useless even. Three misplaced fumbles sunk the ‘Horns, and they need to see higher luck within the second battle.
Of higher significance to this handicap is Georgia’s inconsistent play. Effort on a week-to-week foundation is a matter, and the Bulldogs are persistently behind early in video games. They have essentially the most broad receiver drops in school soccer (36), and their rush protection is surprisingly weak, which doesn’t bode properly in a matchup with the Longhorns’ bettering rush protection. As an apart, be careful for Arch Manning packages because the Bulldogs wrestle to include cellular quarterbacks.
Betting on College Football?
Health has one thing to do with the inconsistency. The Bulldogs are banged up, particularly on the offensive line, so that they’ve struggled to run the ball and defend Carson Beck, and that doesn’t bode properly in a matchup with the Longhorns’ elite entrance seven.
Last week: 1-2. Texas A&M (L), Vanderbilt (L), Air Force (W)
2024 season: 22-17.
