The 13-year civil battle between Syria’s authorities and insurgent fighters has ended. But the peril isn’t over for Syria’s Kurdish minority.
Quite a few armed factions are nonetheless jostling for management after the collapse of the Assad regime. They embody the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which have allied with the United States to fight the extremist Islamic State, and the Syrian National Army, a militia backed by Turkey, which is hostile to the Kurdish forces.
For greater than a decade, the Kurdish-led troopers have been America’s most dependable associate in Syria, liberating cities seized by the extremist group and detaining round 9,000 of its fighters.
But Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, has lengthy thought of the Kurdish group to be its enemy. The Turkish authorities believes the Kurdish fighters in Syria are allied with the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.Ok.Ok., which has fought the Turkish state for many years.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, who backs the insurgent teams that toppled the Assad regime, seems wanting to seize the chance created by the momentous political shift in Syria to pursue his personal agenda in opposition to the Kurdish fighters.
Turkey’s new dominance leaves the Kurds uncovered
The form of the brand new Syrian authorities, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, continues to be being decided. But American officers and Middle East analysts agree: Turkey may have an outsized affect.
That means Kurdish teams’ foothold within the northeast appears to be like more and more “tenuous,” mentioned Wa’el Alzayat, a Syria professional and former American diplomat. Turkey “may have the largest leverage in what’s taking place, and can occur, in Syria for the foreseeable future,” he mentioned.
As Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies seized management from President Bashar al-Assad, “they introduced with them a tide of Turkish energy and affect over the way forward for Syria,” mentioned Nicholas Heras, a senior analyst on the New Lines Institute.
The excessive stakes for the Kurds, and for Western forces decided to stop a renewed ISIS risk, have been illuminated earlier this previous week. Even as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies took over, Turkish-backed rebels attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by Turkish airstrikes and artillery fireplace.
The commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Gen. Mazloum Abdi, advised The New York Times he needed to divert fighters who have been defending the prisons that home accused ISIS members to battle off the Turkish-backed militants.
Now, Mr. Heras predicted, Arabs who had joined the Syrian Democratic Forces to battle the Islamic State might disband or defect to different insurgent teams, underneath stress from Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. That would additional weaken the Kurdish forces.
A best-case situation for the Kurds, officers and specialists mentioned, may see them obtain sufficient assist from the United States to safe the territory they maintain in northeast Syria. That might give them leverage with the brand new authorities in Damascus to pursue a totally autonomous state, one thing minority Kurds in Syria have lengthy sought.
At worst, the Kurds might face an infected battle with Turkish-backed fighters, be pressured to cede management of at the very least a few of their oil-rich territory and, if President-elect Donald J. Trump decides to withdraw U.S. troops, lose very important assistance on the bottom.
America’s position can be pivotal
“There actually must be some form of cease-fire/peace settlement between the Turks and the Kurds that each side can agree with,” mentioned Natasha Hall, a Syria professional on the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The Biden administration is racing to barter simply that earlier than it leaves workplace subsequent month.
Following conferences in Turkey final week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken mentioned on Saturday that “ensuring that ISIS was in a field” remained an pressing precedence in Syria. He mentioned the Kurdish fighters have been “enjoying a important position in pursuing that mission.”
But the diplomatic balancing act he confronted was clear: His conferences in Turkey included talks with the international minister, Hakan Fidan, who earlier final week mentioned that “any P.Ok.Ok. extension in Syria can’t be thought of a professional associate.”
And on Friday, Mr. Fidan pointedly cited the P.Ok.Ok. as he described efforts to maintain terrorist organizations from exploiting the political chaos in Syria.
Yet there are indicators that American diplomacy is having an influence. Last week, an American commander, Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, visited northeast Syria, the place 900 American troops are stationed. Hours later, a cease-fire between the Kurdish forces and a Turkish-backed insurgent group generally known as the Syrian National Army was introduced within the northern metropolis of Manbij, the place the 2 sides have incessantly clashed.
General Abdi, the Kurdish commander, mentioned on X that the cease-fire was brokered with American assist. Under the settlement, he mentioned, Kurdish forces would withdraw from Manbij, a majority Arab metropolis which they seized from the Islamic State in 2016 however that has since grow to be a flashpoint amongst battling factions for management. But he and different Syrian ethnic Kurds are more and more nervous that their retreat from Manbij is only the start.
The metropolis of Kobani could possibly be the subsequent flashpoint
Last Tuesday, a senior Hayat Tahrir al-Sham officer mentioned that native tribes allied along with his group had wrested management of the jap metropolis of Deir al-Zour from Kurdish fighters who had taken over as Mr. al-Assad’s forces collapsed simply days earlier.
And within the days since, the Turkish-backed rebels have repeatedly battled with Kurdish forces within the area across the Euphrates River.
Mr. Heras, the New Lines analyst, mentioned he thought these skirmishes could possibly be navy preparations for an invasion of Kobani, a majority Kurdish metropolis.
The metropolis, simply south of the Turkish border, holds deep emotional significance for the Kurdish forces, who fought with American troops to reclaim it after a four-month Islamic State siege that started in late 2015.
General Abdi now seems to be bracing for a potential invasion by Turkey’s allied fighters. Mr. Heras mentioned residents have been fleeing Kobani by the hundreds regardless of a shaky truce settlement this previous week that aimed to purchase time for negotiations.
“Turkey is profiting from the disaster in Syria to destabilize the area and seize our land, whereas claiming they’re preventing terrorists,” mentioned Sinam Sherkany Mohamad, the pinnacle of the Kurdish fighters’ political wing in Washington, in a press release. “But we aren’t terrorists, we’re democratic U.S. allies.”
James F. Jeffrey, a former American ambassador to Turkey who was a chief Syria envoy throughout Mr. Trump’s first administration, mentioned any invasion of Kobani would violate a 2019 settlement that the U.S. negotiated for a détente, “and whether or not by the Turks, or Syrian forces related to the Turks, it makes no distinction.”
In the meantime, General Abdi has sought to shore up the Kurdish fighters’ relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, saying he’s searching for direct relations with the group’s leaders.
Officials and specialists mentioned Turkey could wait till its pursuits are locked in with the brand new Syrian authorities earlier than deciding whether or not to launch a full-bore navy offensive in opposition to the Kurdish forces. It might also watch to see whether or not Mr. Trump withdraws American troops, and the way his administration offers with Mr. Erdogan, a like-minded strongman whose relationship with the United States has typically been tempestuous.
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, warned in a press release on social media that he was ready to push for financial sanctions in opposition to Turkey if it attacked the Kurdish forces, which he mentioned would “set in movement an ISIS jailbreak.” He added: “If Turkey takes navy motion in opposition to Kurdish forces in Syria, it’ll jeopardize America’s pursuits dramatically.”
Safak Timur contributed reporting from Istanbul.
