There is rising however nonetheless circumstantial proof {that a} Syrian Airlines Il-76 Candid cargo airplane, at the moment at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, is one which appeared to go lacking within the remaining chaotic moments of Bashar Al Assad’s regime. Rumors and claims swirled that the plane had been carrying Assad and was shot down after it disappeared from on-line flight monitoring websites. The Syrian dictator fled the capital Damascus for Khmeimim, after which to Moscow, in keeping with the primary assertion attributed to him in additional than per week that was put out earlier right this moment.
The assertion stated to have been from Assad was posted by way of a channel on the Telegram social media community linked to the now-defunct Syrian regime earlier right this moment, however it’s unclear whether or not or not he really drafted it and/or put it on-line. The deposed Syrian dictator has not been seen publicly in additional than per week, regardless of Russian officers saying they’ve provided him asylum. You can learn extra concerning the general present state of affairs in Syria, which stays very fluid, in our previous reporting right here.
Assad relocated to Khmeimim through unspecified means and with Russia’s help on Dec. 8, in keeping with the assertion. It additionally claims the Syrian strongman had initially meant to proceed commanding the battle in opposition to insurgent forces from the Russian base. So far, there is no such thing as a unbiased corroboration of this assertion. The War Zone has famous prior to now that the Russian air base can be the most secure place within the nation for Assad in a disaster.
“With no viable technique of leaving the bottom, Moscow requested that the bottom’s command organize an instantaneous evacuation to Russia on the night of Sunday eighth December,” the assertion provides. “This passed off a day after the autumn of Damascus, following the collapse of the ultimate navy positions and the ensuing paralysis of all remaining state establishments.”
The primary timeline outlined within the assertion aligns with on-line flight monitoring information exhibiting a Syrian Airlines Il-76 with the Syrian registration YK-ATA fly north from the Damascus space early Dec. 8. The monitoring information for that flight reduce out simply after it handed town of Homs, which insurgent forces had taken management of the day earlier than. That, mixed with information exhibiting a pronounced left flip and a precipitous drop in pace and altitude all the way in which right down to 1,625 toes and 130 knots, had shortly sparked rumors that the plane had been shot down.
Publicly accessible information from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), which is primarily meant to assist monitor wildfires and different blazes sparked by pure disasters, had additionally proven a ‘scorching spot’ precisely within the space the place the plane dropped off radar. The War Zone has been working to acquire high-resolution imagery of this location, however we’ve not obtained a transparent image but. No imagery has in any other case emerged to this point exhibiting any obvious Il-76 wreckage in Syria.
“The space through which the plane was flying, particularly the world of Syria between Homs and the coast, is repeatedly topic to GPS interference—together with spoofing and jamming,” a submit on Dec. 12 from the official weblog for on-line flight monitoring web site Flightradar24 says. “With that in thoughts, analyzing the uncooked ADS-B information obtained from YK-ATA reveals positional and pace information that strains credulity.”
It’s additionally price noting right here that YK-ATA’s journey north was uncommon to start with, primarily based on flight monitoring information from ADS-B Exchange that The War Zone reviewed. In the months main as much as Assad’s fall, the airplane was very energetic however was noticed flying routes to and from areas in Africa. Flightradar24‘s Dec. 12 weblog submit additionally says that “in latest months the plane has visited Benghazi, Libya regularly.” There are actually reviews that Russia could also be trying to make any losses to its presence in Syria by increasing its posture in Libya, although there aren’t any indications that’s tied to YK-ATA latest flight historical past.
Furthermore, it has now been confirmed {that a} Syrian Airlines Il-76 is parked in a single nook of an open apron on the northeast finish of Khmeimim. Satellite imagery The War Zone has reviewed from Planet Labs present the Candid at its present place by Dec. 9. An Il-76 was seen parked between the runways the day earlier than and was not there on Dec. 7.
A Syrian Airlines Yak-40, a passenger airplane that’s between a big enterprise jet and a small airliner size-wise, additionally appeared on the base on Dec. 8. The Yak-40 was initially parked on a unique apron, however was moved subsequent to the Il-76 by Dec. 13.
The video within the social media submit beneath, which was taken through a drone, and that Turkey-based Syria TV put out final week, clearly reveals a Syrian Airlines Il-76 at Khmeimim at a number of factors in its runtime.
In addition, a Russian Il-76 was tracked leaving Khmeimim for Moscow on Dec. 8, which additional aligns with the timeline within the new assertion attributed to Assad.
Altogether, there are indicators that the Syrian Airlines Il-76 at Khmeimim is YK-ATA and that Assad used that plane or the Yak-40 as a part of his final flight from the nation on Dec. 8. The Il-76 might have been used to assist spirit different property, together with regime riches, to Khmeimim after which in another country. It would have been a high precedence for Assad to get bodily property, together with gold and forex reserves, to a secure place. The Assad household has already been reportedly squirreling away huge wealth abroad for years. There are reviews that different former regime officers have been fleeing to the Russian base in an effort to get in another country with the Kremlin’s assist, as nicely.
However, it stays unknown for positive whether or not or not it’s YK-ATA on the Russian base. Syrian Airlines has 4 Il-76s in its stock and no imagery has emerged thus far clearly exhibiting the registration on the instance at Khmeimim. There continues to be a chance that YK-ATA went elsewhere or got here down.
Questions very a lot stay about what may occur to the Khmeimim Air Base, together with the Syrian Airlines plane there, in addition to Russia’s naval base at Tartus. The air and naval amenities are extremely strategic amenities for the Kremlin that help operations past Syria. A considerable withdrawal of Russian forces from the nation is underway, however it stays unclear whether or not or not they’re leaving for good. Russian officers insist that they’re nonetheless attempting to carry on to their two prized bases, however there are unconfirmed reviews that they could possibly be ordered to vacate the nation inside a month. You can learn extra about what is thought now about these deliberations in reporting right here.
The finish of Assad’s regime has already supplied the chance for unprecedented views of Khmeimim. Maybe now clearer imagery will emerge exhibiting the Syrian Airlines Il-76’s license plate to settle the query of whether or not that is the ‘lacking’ jet for good.
Contact the creator: joe@twz.com
