The fast downfall of Syrian chief Bashar Assad has touched off a brand new spherical of delicate geopolitical maneuvering between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
With the mud nonetheless settling from the beautiful occasions in Damascus, the result for now appears to be favoring Ankara, which backed the victorious rebels, whereas Moscow suffered a bruising blow to its worldwide clout.
“In the sport of Czars vs. Sultans, that is Sultans 1 and Czars 0,” mentioned Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program on the Washington Institute. “Far from being allies, Turkey and Russia are rivals. And on this case, Turkey has outsmarted Russia.”
The Assad regime’s demise opens one other chapter within the complicated relationship between Putin and Erdogan, with wide-ranging implications not only for Syria but additionally for Ukraine and the 2 leaders’ ties with Washington.
Russia and Turkey share financial and safety pursuits — together with an intense rivalry. The private relationship between Putin and Erdogan typically sees them each praising one another, at the same time as they jockey for political and financial good points.
“There are at the moment solely two leaders left on the planet — there may be me and there may be Vladimir Putin,” Erdogan mentioned just lately, reflecting the respect for the Kremlin chief. Putin, in flip, has typically praises Erdogan’s political prowess.
Conflicts and offers
Russia and Turkey backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil warfare that began in 2011, placing them on a collision course. Tensions spiraled when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian warplane close to the Turkey-Syria border in November 2015, quickly after Moscow launched its air marketing campaign to help Assad.
The Kremlin responded with sweeping financial sanctions that halted Turkish imports, drove Turkish firms from the profitable Russian market and reduce the movement of Russian vacationers to Turkey’s resorts.
Faced with large financial harm, Erdogan apologized months later. Soon after, Putin staunchly supported him when he confronted an tried army coup in July 2016, serving to to heat ties shortly.
In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation deal for the rebel-held Idlib province in northwestern Syria on the border with Turkey and sought to anchor the often-violated settlement with follow-up offers within the subsequent few years.
But at the same time as they cooperated on Syria, Moscow and Ankara additionally vied for affect in Libya, the place Russia supported forces loyal to army commander Khalifa Hifter whereas Turkey backed his Tripoli-based foes. Turkey additionally aggressively sought to extend its leverage within the former Soviet Central Asian nations competing with Russia and China.
In 2020, Moscow backed off when Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan routed ethnic Armenian forces within the combating over the breakaway area of Karabakh. Even although Armenia hosted a Russian army base, the Kremlin has engaged in a fragile balancing act, in search of to take care of heat ties with each Azerbaijan and Turkey.
While their political pursuits typically clashed, financial ties boomed, with Russia boosting pure fuel exports to Turkey through a Black Sea pipeline; by constructing Turkey’s first nuclear plant; and by offering the NATO member with superior air protection methods — to Washington’s dismay.
Relations amid the warfare in Ukraine
Ties with Turkey grew much more essential for Putin after he invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s largest battle since World War II.
The West responded with financial sanctions that barred Russia from most Western markets, restricted its entry to worldwide monetary system, shut transport routes and halted exports of key applied sciences. Turkey, which didn’t be a part of the sanctions, has emerged as Russia’s key gateway to international markets, strengthening Erdogan’s hand in negotiations with Putin.
While Turkey backed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and provided Kyiv with weapons, Erdogan echoed Putin in accusing the U.S. and NATO of fomenting the battle. Putin has praised Erdogan for providing to mediate a settlement.
In March 2022, Turkey hosted Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul that quickly collapsed, with each Putin and Erdogan blaming the West for his or her failure.
Later that yr, Ankara pooled efforts with the United Nations to dealer a deal that opened the door for Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, an settlement that helped drive down international meals costs earlier than falling aside the next yr.
Turkey’s balancing act in Ukraine is pushed by its dependence on the huge Russian market, provides of pure fuel and a movement of vacationers.
Russia’s deal with Ukraine has eroded its clout in areas the place Turkey and different gamers have tried to reap the benefits of Moscow’s withering affect.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed management over all of Karabakh in an one-day blitz whereas Russian regional peacekeepers stood again. That harm Russia’s ties with Armenia, which has shifted more and more towards the West.
Moscow’s new take a look at Syria
Focused on Ukraine, Russia had few sources left for Syria at a time when Hezbollah equally pulled again its fighters amid the warfare with Israel and Iranian help for Assad additionally weakened.
Russia tried to sponsor talks on normalizing relations between Turkey and Syria, however Assad stonewalled them, refusing any compromise.
Assad’s intransigence helped set off the Turkey-backed opposition’s offensive in November. The underfunded and demoralized Syrian military shortly crumbled, permitting the rebels to comb throughout the nation and seize Damascus.
Even because it has supplied asylum to Assad and his household, Russia has reached out to Syria’s new leaders, in search of to make sure safety for its troops nonetheless there and prolong leases on its naval and air bases.
At his annual information convention Thursday, Putin mentioned Russia supplied Syria’s new leaders to make use of the bases for humanitarian assist deliveries and steered Moscow may supply different incentives.
While Assad’s demise dealt a heavy blow to Russia, some imagine Moscow may navigate the quickly altering setting to retain at the least some clout.
“Syria’s opposition forces properly perceive that the nation’s future is unsure,” mentioned Nikolay Kozhanov, a consulting fellow with Chathan House’s Russia and Eurasia program, in a commentary. “They need Russia, if not as a buddy, then a impartial get together.”
He famous that “Moscow’s most important aim will probably be to take care of at the least a minimal degree of affect via a army presence, for instance, at its present bases, or via contacts with different regional gamers, akin to Turkey.”
Cagaptay noticed that whereas Turkey want to see an finish to Russia’s army presence in Syria, Ankara’s place will depend upon how relations evolve with Washington.
“If we see a reset in U.S.-Turkish ties the place Turkey thinks it could possibly comfortably lean on the U.S. in opposition to Russia, I can see Erdogan adopting a sort of extra boisterous tone vis a vis Putin,” he mentioned.
But if the U.S. maintains its alliance with the Kurds and stands in opposition to Turkey’s effort to push again on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, “Ankara might determine that it must proceed to play all sides because it has been doing for a few decade now,” Cagaptay mentioned.
Putin famous Russia understands Turkey’s motives in securing its borders, however he additionally warned that the Kurds may supply robust resistance if attacked.
Emre Ersen, a Russia skilled at Istanbul’s Marmara University, additionally famous that whereas Assad’s fall will diminish Moscow’s affect, “the connection between Turkey and Russia is not going to be devastated by the occasions in Syria.”
“Obviously, they nonetheless want to achieve out to one another concerning the disaster in Ukraine, but additionally as a result of they’ve very important financial relations,” Ersen mentioned, including that Erdogan could possibly be anticipated to hunt extra concessions from Russia on power and commerce points.
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Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey contributed.
