Something sudden – however hardly unprecedented – occurred in South Korea on Dec. 3, 2024. With little warning, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial legislation, citing the risk from “pro-North Korean anti-state forces.”
The transfer, which appeared extra about curbing efforts by the principle opposition – the center-left Democratic Party – to frustrate Yoon’s coverage agenda via their management of parliament, left many South Koreans surprised. As one Seoul resident advised reporters: “It seems like a coup d’état.”
That interviewee wasn’t far off.
As students of authoritarian politics and authors of the colpus dataset of coup varieties and traits, we’ve spent numerous hours documenting the historical past of coups d’état since World War II.
Yoon’s short-lived martial legislation declaration – it lasted only a few hours earlier than being lifted – was an instance of what political scientists name an “autogolpe,” or to provide the phenomenon its English title, a “self-coup.”
Our information exhibits that self-coups have gotten extra widespread, with extra up to now decade in contrast with another 10-year interval because the finish of World War II. What follows is a primer on why that’s taking place, what self-coups contain – and why, not like in round 80% of self-coups, Yoon’s gambit failed.
The elements of a self-coup
All coup makes an attempt share some traits. They contain an try and seize government energy and entail a concrete, observable and unlawful motion by army or civilian personnel.
In a daily coup, these accountable will try and take energy from an incumbent or presumptive chief. Historically, most coups have been perpetrated, or at the very least supported, by army actors. A traditional instance is when the Chilean military below Gen. Augusto Pinochet ousted the federal government of Salvador Allende in 1973 and imposed army rule.
Some coups, nonetheless, are led by leaders themselves.
These self-coups are coups in reverse. Rather than the chief of the nation being changed in an unconstitutional method, the incumbent government takes or sponsors unlawful actions in opposition to different individuals within the regime – for instance, the courts or parliament – with the objective of extending their keep in workplace or increasing their very own energy.
This could take the type of a chief government utilizing troops to close down the legislature, as Yoon tried unsuccessfully to do in South Korea. Others have had extra success; Tunisian President Kais Saied orchestrated a self-coup in July 2021 by dismissing parliament and the judiciary to pave the best way for increasing his presidential energy. More than three years on, Saied stays in energy.
Alternatively, a pacesetter could attempt to coerce state officers or the legislature to overturn an election loss. We noticed this occur with Donald Trump after the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and as such we embody his try and stress native officers – and then-Vice President Mike Pence – to overturn the election end in our checklist of “self-coup makes an attempt.”
The types of self-coup strategies
But not all government energy grabs are self-coups. For instance, if a president will get the legislature to increase presidential time period limits and the courts approve – as Bolivian President Evo Morales did in 2017 – this can be a blow to government constraints and democracy, however we don’t think about it a coup because the process for altering the legislation is constitutional.
In all, we’ve recorded 46 self-coups since 1945 by democratically elected leaders within the forthcoming self-colpus dataset, together with the newest try in South Korea. Our self-coup information was compiled over the previous three years with the help of some enterprising undergraduate college students at Carnegie Mellon University.
Reviewing the circumstance – and outcomes – of those incidents helps us determine the most typical traits of self-coups.
Yoon’s actions in South Korea have been typical in some methods however not in others. Over half of self-coup makes an attempt in democratic international locations goal the judiciary or the legislature, whereas round 40% explicitly search to undermine democratic elections or forestall election winners from taking workplace. The relaxation goal different regime elites or a nominal government.
Yoon declared martial legislation to seize government energy from an opposition-led legislature.
Interestingly, solely 1 / 4 of self-coup makes an attempt in democracies contain such an emergency declaration. Much extra widespread are assaults on opposition events and leaders and election interference.
About 1 in 5 self-coup leaders droop or annul the structure.
Relatively few self-coup makes an attempt in democracies contain makes an attempt to evade time period limits, although self-coups that end in so-called “leaders for all times” have gotten extra widespread in Africa.
Why are self-coups on the rise?
Coups and self-coups are two of the most typical methods democracies die, although their relative frequencies have modified over time.
Whereas coups have been the main reason behind democratic breakdown in the course of the Cold War, self-coups have grow to be the main trigger because the fall of the Soviet Union within the early Nineteen Nineties.
A 3rd of all self-coup makes an attempt by democratically elected leaders since 1946 have occurred in simply the previous decade.
Though extra analysis is required to account for the latest rise of self-coups, we imagine a part of the reply lies within the decline of anti-coup norms – during which democracies punish coup leaders by withholding recognition, overseas assist or commerce offers – and the rise of personalist politics globally.
Why do self-coups fail?
Presidents and prime ministers who try self-coups presumably assume they’ve an excellent likelihood of success – in the event that they didn’t, they wouldn’t try a coup within the first place.
The undeniable fact that Yoon launched his self-coup bid seemingly with out prior help of leaders in his personal get together could be very uncommon.
While solely half of conventional coup makes an attempt succeed, greater than 4 out of 5 self-coup makes an attempt by democratically elected leaders succeed, in response to our information.
Hector Mata/AFP by way of Getty Images
So what went flawed for Yoon in South Korea?
Coup success relies on coordinating lots of people, together with partisan allies and army elites. Although overt army help of the sort Yoon initially acquired is useful, it’s not at all times decisive.
Most self-coup failures occur when army and get together elites defect. The causes for these defections are inclined to contain a mixture of structural and contingent components. When lots of individuals pour into the streets to oppose the coup, like we noticed in Seoul, army members can get nervous and defect. And worldwide condemnation of the coup can definitely assist overturn self-coup makes an attempt.
Public help for democracy additionally helps. That’s why self-coups don’t sometimes occur in long-established democracies just like the United States which have collected “democratic capital” – the inventory of civic and social property that grows with a protracted historical past of democracy.
South Korea, though a army dictatorship from 1961 to 1987, has had many years of democratic rule. And the system labored in South Korea when threatened. Party leaders united to vote unanimously in opposition to Yoon.
That contrasts with profitable self-coups within the nation by Park Chung-hee in 1972 and Chun Doo-hwan in 1980.
What occurs to failed self-coup leaders?
Rarely has a failed self-coup chief remained in workplace for lengthy. The self-coup could cause them to be ousted in a coup, as occurred to Haiti’s Dumarsais Estimé in May 1950. Or they could be impeached, as occurred with Peru’s Pedro Castillo in December 2022. According to our information, just one failed self-coup chief managed to hold on to workplace for greater than a 12 months to the tip of their time period. Though not pressured from workplace after the flawed 1994 Dominican elections, Joaquín Balaguer was pressured to conform to new elections in 1996 during which he wouldn’t be a candidate.
Odds are, then, that President Yoon’s days in energy are numbered. Following his tried self-coup, six opposition events submitted an impeachment movement in opposition to the president. That movement wants 200 of 300 members of the National Assembly to move.
All 190 current members voted to finish martial legislation, together with 18 of 108 members from Yoon’s get together. Only a number of extra of the conservative get together’s legislators must vote in opposition to Yoon for impeachment proceedings to advance.
Threatened by a self-coup, South Korea’s democratic establishments appear to be holding – at the very least for now.
