What Role Is Turkey Playing in Syria’s Civil War?

Henri J. Barkey is Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies on the Council on Foreign Relations.

What function are outdoors powers taking part in in Syria’s new insurgent offensive?

Turkey is an important outdoors energy supporting the insurgent aspect. It geographically adjoins Syrian insurgent territory within the northwest, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s authorities supported the 2011 Arab Spring rebellion towards Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. At occasions, he additionally backed quite a lot of Islamist teams in the course of the Syrian civil conflict. The main and most substantial insurgent group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is the previous Al-Nusra Front, a jihadist group that fought the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS). It renamed itself and claimed that it renounced a few of its extra excessive positions, has develop into extra respectful of minorities, and has taken on some institutional obligations within the type of native authorities. While there are indications that HTS acquired Turkish assist in the type of arms, primarily drones, previous to this offensive, HTS shouldn’t be Ankara’s main shopper. It’s additionally value noting that HTS has reportedly been manufacturing its personal arms in recent times.

Turkey’s ally among the many rebels is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which, regardless of its identify, is a completely Turkish-owned entity. Since the defeat of ISIS, the Turks have been extra involved with the emergence of a Syrian-Kurdish entity in northern Syria led by the Syrian Democratic Forces, the SDF. The SDF, although a Syrian group, has its roots within the Turkish-Kurdish insurgency. The United States determined to accomplice with the SDF when the Iraqi, Syrian, and Iraqi-Kurdish forces melted away on the top of the ISIS onslaught in 2014. This partnership was profitable, and to at the present time, the United States maintains a pressure of roughly 9 hundred troopers in northern Syria in collaboration with the SDF to stop the resurgence of ISIS.

The Russians and the Iranians, along with their Lebanese shopper Hezbollah, have been Syria’s largest navy supporters. They had been instrumental in serving to the regime survive the civil conflict and keep the established order. The Russians have used their air pressure to bomb insurgent positions in Syria’s Idlib province. During the present offensive, Russian jets have tried to decelerate the rebels’ advance by bombing the newly conquered territories. The Iranian regime has been Assad’s foremost ally. It has offered Assad with navy recommendation and arms in addition to directed Hezbollah to deploy skilled and battle-tested fighters towards the insurgents. Other Iranian proxies, comparable to Iraqi Shi’a militias, have additionally been mobilized to assist Damascus.

At this stage, it’s unclear how a lot precise bodily assist Assad’s allies can provide. Russia is consumed by the conflict in Ukraine and, within the circumstances of Iran and Hezbollah, they’re considerably weakened following current confrontations with Israel. The Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi Shi’a militia have reportedly despatched combatants to the Iraq-Syria border whereas different Shi’a forces entered Syria to assist regime forces.

How does Turkey view the seizure of Aleppo and Hama?

The Turks had been in all probability conscious of HTS’s preparations however had been unlikely to have been a part of the operation’s planning or timing. As with many observers, they, too, will need to have been shocked by the velocity with which the opposition overpowered the Syrian defenses, first in Aleppo after which in Hama.

Aleppo’s fall was a welcome improvement for Ankara. After years of scolding Assad and his regime, Erdoğan concluded that it was time to reverse coverage and reengage with Damascus. An emboldened Assad selected to disregard Erdoğan. This present reversal of fortunes will definitely enhance Turkey’s affect in Syria.

Aleppo’s comparatively straightforward fall is an indication of the Syrian regime’s weak spot and is also a harbinger of its coming demise. Whereas this is able to have been welcomed with nice exultation in Ankara half a decade in the past, HTS’s jihadist disposition and independence ought to fear Turkey. This is very true following the rebels’ seize of Hama. Hama is strategically essential: it sits on the intersection of many different cities, together with Homs, the rebels’ subsequent goal. At the time of publishing, the town of Homs is now about to fall, and the Syrian Army is deploying all its belongings for the protection of Damascus. Erdoğan got here out right now, saying that he hopes the insurgents go all the best way to Damascus.

Not solely can Ankara not management the rebels, however the prospect of recent refugee flows being triggered by HTS habits, and the following chaos brought on by the regime’s collapse, is a critical risk. Erdoğan’s authorities is at present dealing with a political backlash at residence from the sooner refugee waves, which noticed as much as 3.5 million cross the border, and the prospect of recent flows can be particularly worrisome.

From Turkey’s perspective, the prospects usually are not interesting. This state of affairs will both end result within the regime in Damascus collapsing or in an unstable stalemate characterised by the regime forces, helped by pro-Iranian militias from Iraq and Hezbollah, halting insurgent advances however unable to reclaim Aleppo or Hama again. Chaos will seemingly observe the primary state of affairs or a state of fixed fight as Damascus makes an attempt to get better the 2 cities.

How does Turkey’s marketing campaign towards Syrian Kurds determine into developments?

For the Turks, the one most vital goal stays the eradication of the Syrian Kurdish SDF, the U.S. ally. Erdoğan has raised the saliency of the Syrian Kurds in home politics, not simply to place his Kurdish residents on the defensive but in addition as a method to distract the populace. However, the actual rationale, although not publicly articulated, is the concern that Syrian Kurds would reduce a take care of any central authorities in Damascus to attain an autonomous standing identical to Iraqi Kurds did following the Iraq conflict. Turks vividly do not forget that the United States was the first agent in serving to Iraqi Kurds create the Kurdistan Regional Government. Today, the United States is as soon as once more in an alliance with one other Kurdish entity, deepening fears in Ankara that historical past will repeat itself. As a end result, the American alignment has develop into the first supply of rivalry between Ankara and Washington.

The present Syrian riot initially gave Turkey the duvet it wanted to push the SNA onto Kurdish positions, with the rapid aim of pushing the SDF east of the Euphrates River. Early indications counsel that the SNA has scored some successes, however not with out drawing ire from their HTS ally, which criticized them for forsaking the offensive’s principal goal.

The destiny of the Syrian Kurdish enclave rests with Washington. Ankara may very well be hoping that the incoming Donald Trump administration will determine to withdraw its 9 hundred troopers from Syria and finish its assist for the SDF. After all, Trump tried to do it twice throughout his first time period, solely to be persuaded to not by his advisors. The penalties of an American withdrawal can be way more daunting right now; there are some 40,000-plus ISIS and pro-ISIS detainees in SDF-managed prisons, comparable to al-Hol. If launched, it’s fairly seemingly that some or many of those prisoners would both be part of HTS, thus strengthening it or inflicting mayhem in northern Iraq or past. It would in all probability not be advisable to withdraw the troops even when the present riot had not occurred, as it could have been perceived as a victory for Iran and its allies. Iran, in any case, has been exhorting Iraq to cut back the American navy presence. In addition to serving to stop a resurgence of ISIS, American forces in Syria keep watch over Iranian conveyance of products and assist to its allies comparable to Hezbollah.

Is there a practical prospect for a revived peace course of in Syria as a result of shifting energy on the bottom?

Given the quick tempo of developments, it’s tough to visualise prospects for a revived peace course of in Syria right now. It is a zero-sum battle. HTS can’t reside with Assad and vice versa.

Assad has few associates within the area. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and different Arab states have come round to politically backing him however lack the wherewithal to assist him with important navy support. The United States and Israel are sitting on the sidelines, dealing with some arduous selections. On one hand, Assad’s demise would signify a decisive blow towards Iran and its allies. Tehran can be reduce off from Lebanon and Hezbollah, and strain in Iraq to distance itself from the Iranians can also be prone to enhance. On the opposite hand, the emergence of a jihadist state in Syria would create unprecedented uncertainty and engender new cycles of violence that contain outdoors actors such because the United States, Israel, and Iraq. What worries everybody concerning the regime’s collapse is that its chemical weapons arsenal might then fall into the arms of HTS or different jihadis.

If the regime collapses and Assad flees, it isn’t clear who will exchange him. The navy is in disarray, and there’s no clear successor who might take over from Assad. If he survived and recaptured some or all the territory, would he be considering taking part in a peace course of? That relies on Russia and Iran. These two international locations continuously calculate their wins and losses within the present polarized international environment. What can be their incentives to see a compromise in Syria emerge? Syria might simply be one other chip in a bigger reckoning.

This work represents the views and opinions solely of the creator. The Council on Foreign Relations is an impartial, nonpartisan membership group, suppose tank, and writer, and takes no institutional positions on issues of coverage.