CNN
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Global stakeholders now need to reckon with the geopolitical influence of a insurgent offensive led by an Islamist group in Syria that might doubtlessly threaten President Bashar al-Assad’s maintain over the nation.
Syrian rebels have made a lightning advance within the north of the nation, taking two main cities: Aleppo, the second greatest metropolis, and Hama, a strategically essential metropolis that lies on an important provide route. The rebels are saying they’ll advance additional south to Homs, simply over 100 miles from the Syrian capital of Damascus.
“When we discuss targets, the aim of the revolution stays the overthrow of this regime. It is our proper to make use of all out there means to attain that aim,” Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the previous Al Qaeda fighter who’s now main the riot, advised CNN in an interview on Thursday.
While Assad has many enemies within the area and past, his fall wouldn’t be welcomed by all.
Western and Arab states, in addition to Israel, wish to see Iran’s affect in Syria curtailed, however none want for a radical Islamist regime to interchange Assad. For Russia, Syria’s fall may imply dropping its closest Middle Eastern ally and undermining its skill to undertaking energy whereas it fights a conflict in Ukraine. For Iran, it may shatter its so-called Axis of Resistance, comprising allied states and militias.
Here’s how the occasions in Syria may influence key gamers within the Middle East:
The insurgent advances in Syria mark the primary actual take a look at of highly effective Arab states’ dedication to reconcile with Assad.
At the peak of the Syrian civil conflict, Sunni Arab states, together with regional powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, broke ties with the Iran-allied Assad regime, moved to isolate it and threw their weight behind opposition teams making an attempt to topple it, seeing it as a possibility to curb Tehran’s regional affect.
But Assad, aided by Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, survived and reclaimed territory misplaced to the rebels. Under heavy US sanctions, Syria became what some specialists have known as a “narco-state,” fueling a drug disaster in neighboring nations.
Syria’s new actuality prompted Arab nations to increase a hand to the Assad regime, and over the previous few years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have led efforts towards his regional and worldwide rehabilitation. In 2023, the Syrian regime was readmitted to the Arab League.
Over a decade after they backed the Syrian opposition, Gulf Arab states, together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at the moment are siding with Assad as he as soon as once more faces a riot.
“In 2011, a really giant variety of nations quite shortly got here to the view that they might be higher off if Assad fell they usually wished to eliminate him… however the Saudis, Emiratis and others within the area see this now as a difficult and destabilizing scenario for them if Assad falls at this level,” mentioned Trita Parsi, govt vice chairman of the Washington DC-based Quincy Institute.
In their annual Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit final weekend, Gulf Arab leaders known as for the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity, declared respect for its sovereignty and rejected regional interference in its inside affairs. By distinction, the assertion after the 2011 GCC summit known as on Assad to “instantly cease the killing machine, put an finish to the bloodshed and launch detainees.”
“We would possibly see that many of those nations would need to make the most of the scenario to enhance their very own place inside Syria, notably with Iran, however that necessitates that Assad is weakened however stays – a really completely different place from what they’d earlier on once they had been throwing every thing at him to eliminate him all collectively,” Parsi mentioned.
Iran has used Syria to develop its regional affect by way of proxy teams stationed within the nation. The Islamic Republic, together with its most formidable proxy Hezbollah, have confirmed instrumental in retaining Assad in energy, by serving to Syrian authorities forces regain misplaced territory, whereas sending its personal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to advise Assad’s army.
After the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its assault on Israel in October final yr, Hezbollah started exchanging hearth with Israel, prompting an Israeli retaliation that had the group’s high brass assassinated and considerably debilitated its capabilities. As a consequence, Hezbollah pulled its forces out of Syria to deal with its conflict with Israel, leaving Assad uncovered, specialists mentioned.
In Syria, Israel has persistently focused Iranian personnel and provide routes used to switch weapons to its proxies. The fall of Aleppo and doubtlessly different cities bordering Lebanon may additional disrupt these routes, putting Iran in a troublesome place. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi advised the Qatari information outlet Al Araby Al Jadeed that Tehran would contemplate sending troops to Syria if requested by the Assad regime. However, escalating the conflict in Syria may undermine Iran’s efforts to pursue diplomacy with the West and Arab states.
Losing Syria could be “an enormous blow” for Iran, Parsi mentioned. “The funding Iranians have made in Syria could be very important, it’s an essential land bridge to Lebanon, but in addition the alliance the Iranians have with the Assad regime has lasted throughout the Islamic Republic’s historical past.”
Iran may additionally use its proxies within the area as leverage in potential talks with an incoming Trump administration, Parsi mentioned.
“If Iran loses an excessive amount of of their place within the area, will they be too weak to barter? But in the event that they combat again to attempt to retain as a lot of that place as potential, do they danger escalating the conflict to the purpose the place diplomacy could not be potential?” he mentioned. “They’re strolling a high-quality steadiness,”
Israel too is caught in a troublesome place. Assad, who views Israel as an enemy, has not posed a direct menace to the nation, opting not to answer the common Israeli strikes in Syria over the previous yr. But the regime has allowed its territory for use by Iran to produce Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hadi al-Bahra, a Syrian opposition chief representing anti-Assad teams, together with the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), mentioned rebels felt inspired to make an advance for Aleppo final week after Israel debilitated Hezbollah and weakened Iran’s footprint within the area.
“Due to the Lebanese conflict and reduce in Hezbollah forces, (Assad’s) regime has much less assist,” Al Bahra advised Reuters in an interview, including that Iran-backed militias even have fewer sources, and Russia is offering much less air cowl to Assad’s forces attributable to its “Ukraine drawback”.
The group main the riot, nonetheless, is Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) whose chief Abu Muhammad Al Jolani is a former al Qaeda fighter with an Islamist ideology that opposes Israel.
“Israel is in between Iran, its proxies and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, advised CNN. “None of the alternatives are good so far as Israel is worried however in the meanwhile Iran and its proxies are weakened, which is nice.”
Israel has to be sure that the offensive is not going to evolve right into a “new problem” posed by HTS and the Sunni rebels main the offensive in Syria, he added.
Assad was on a dropping streak in Syria till Russian President Vladimir Putin intervened in 2015. Without Russian air assist, the recapture of Aleppo in 2016, a turning level for the embattled Syrian president, would have been troublesome, if not not possible.
The Kremlin mentioned this week it should “actually proceed to assist” Assad as Russian jets stepped up strikes on opposition forces in northern Syria.
Nicole Grajewski, a fellow within the Nuclear Policy Program on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace with a deal with Russia, mentioned the Assad regime was caught off-guard throughout the rebels’ newest offensive, and the rebels could have taken benefit of Russia’s distraction with Ukraine to take land in Syria.
Moscow hadn’t dedicated a lot of forces to Syria and should still be able to supporting it, she added, however Russia’s skill to mobilize forces could be troublesome given how shortly the rebels are advancing throughout northern Syria.
Overall, the rebels’ advance with the assistance of Turkey is a “fairly huge menace to Russia,” Grajewski advised CNN. “Russia put far an excessive amount of capital in Assad and the lack of Syria could be an excellent greater loss as its broader standing as a fantastic energy and its skill to maneuver within the Middle East.”
Turkey has tried to distance itself from the rebels’ actions in northern Syria, however it’s the major backer of the Syrian National Army, one of many teams pushing the offensive.
Ankara has additionally represented the opposition in negotiations with Russia over a number of years up to now decade, which finally led to a ceasefire settlement in 2020 between events in Syria every of them helps.
Despite its assist for opposition forces, Turkey has not dominated out a rapprochement with Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has known as for a gathering with Assad, the person he as soon as labeled a terrorist, to reset relations. Assad has refused to satisfy him so long as Turkey continues to occupy components of his nation.
Turkey has additionally sought an answer for an estimated 3.1 million Syrian refugees it hosts – greater than every other nation. The refugees have turn out to be a significant level of competition in Turkey, typically resulting in anti-Syrian riots and requires mass deportation by opposition events.
Until lately, the Syria scenario was seen in Turkey as “regime is profitable, opposition is dropping” with the Iran-Russia axis defining the developments on the bottom, mentioned Galip Dalay, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, a suppose tank in London. But the latest insurgent push has modified that energy dynamic.
“Now it’s clear that Turks need to have interaction in a negotiation however displaying Assad that he’s getting into the negotiation from some extent of weak point. If negotiations now happen, the one method it should result in something is that if Assad gives actual concessions, not beauty concessions,” Dalay advised CNN.
Another aim for Turkey is to push again Kurdish rebel teams positioned alongside the Turkish-Syria border and create a buffer zone. Erdogan has lengthy opposed Kurdish nationalism and made it clear that his final aim is to get rid of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish far-left militant and political group based mostly in Turkey and Iraq that has fought the Turkish state for greater than three a long time.
