The College Football Playoff unveiled its first 12-team bracket on Sunday afternoon, ushering in with it a brand new period for the game’s marquee postseason occasion.
Big Ten champion Oregon earned the No. 1 general seed, with SEC champion Georgia subsequent because the No. 2 seed. Mountain West champion Boise State was the third-highest ranked convention champion, so the Broncos obtained the No. 3 seed, whereas Big 12 champion Arizona State landed at No. 4. The high 4 seeds — all convention champions, per Playoff protocol — will all obtain byes into the quarterfinals.
Texas was the highest at-large workforce, checking in because the No. 5 seed, adopted by Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State in that order. Seeds No. 5-8 will host first-round video games on campus, so we’ll see video games in Austin, State College, South Bend and Columbus.
Tennessee, Indiana and SMU have been the ultimate at-large groups into the bracket, and ACC champion Clemson earned the No. 12 seed because the fifth convention champion. The CFP choice committee selected to maintain SMU within the discipline after a three-point loss to Clemson within the ACC championship over a 9-3 Alabama workforce with three top-25 wins. That was essentially the most controversial resolution within the first yr of the 12-team bracket.
The first 12-team bracket of the College Football Playoff period is ready. See who’s in and who’s out.
Here’s what else you might want to know:
The “snubs”
Alabama followers are livid that SMU made the sphere with none wins towards groups within the committee’s high 25. And whereas that’s true, wins vs. the highest 25 is just not the one metric on the committee’s disposal, and the SMU-Alabama resolution was about excess of merely these two particular person groups. The choice committee had a choice to make about the way forward for convention championship video games. In order to place an Alabama workforce into the sphere with a pair of losses to .500 groups (together with a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma simply two weeks in the past), the committee must considerably penalize an 11-2 SMU workforce that performed within the ACC championship — an additional sport, whereas the Crimson Tide sat idle as a result of they didn’t qualify for his or her league’s championship sport. Obviously, the best way SMU performed Clemson factored into the ultimate resolution. The livid rally late to tie the sport up within the ultimate minute earlier than the Tigers gained on a 56-yard walk-off discipline purpose absolutely impacted committee members. It was laborious to observe that sport and never imagine that SMU was deserving of a spot within the Playoff.
Alabama argued that its rigorous schedule offset its losses, and that its greatest performances (as evidenced in its three top-25 wins) proved it might beat anyone within the nation. SMU argued that it misplaced in an extra sport that groups it could be in comparison with weren’t required to play. Mustangs coach Rhett Lashlee additionally identified that SMU was undefeated within the common season after deciding to begin quarterback Kevin Jennings.
But finally, I had no subject with the committee together with SMU over Alabama within the ultimate bracket. The Tide have been extraordinarily inconsistent this season, and so they have been notably unhealthy on the highway. They solely have themselves responsible for their very own exclusion; they have been a relative lock to make the sphere previous to that blowout loss to Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the committee made an vital level by preserving SMU within the discipline even after a convention championship-game loss. This group wasn’t going to punish a workforce that had been so profitable over the course of the common season that it needed to play an additional sport whereas its friends sat at house. This choice committee wasn’t going to disincentive participation in league title video games by eliminating SMU for taking part in in and shedding its convention championship sport.
Had the committee bumped SMU out of the sphere after it ranked forward of Indiana and Alabama (each idle) simply 5 days in the past, no coach would ever need to play in a convention championship sport once more. You’d have groups sitting starters and/or making an attempt to throw video games down the stretch to keep away from it. And video games that drive income for the leagues themselves could be devalued significantly. The committee’s selection of SMU was its help of the established order.
What message did committee ship in ultimate bracket?
Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry talk about the largest statements the committee made in its ultimate bracket launch, together with why profitable the convention issues and the upkeep of the established order.
The largest surprises
I had projected SMU over Alabama, so I wasn’t terribly shocked that the choice committee did the identical. I additionally wasn’t shocked to see Boise State keep forward of Arizona State — the Broncos have been 5 spots forward of the Sun Devils within the penultimate rankings, earlier than each beat top-25 opponents over championship weekend — nevertheless it was fairly cool to see the Group of 5 champion ranked above two completely different Power 4 champions. I don’t suppose I might have ever thought, in my wildest desires, that the Group of 5 champion would earn the No. 3 seed within the very first yr of an expanded discipline. That’s enormous for the legitimacy of G5 Playoff contenders shifting ahead.
The most fascinating rating resolution that the committee made was its ordering of seeds No. 5-7. The group put Texas at No. 5 after an extra time loss to Georgia (enjoying its backup quarterback for a lot of the second half) regardless of having no top-25 wins on its resume. I’d puzzled how the committee would deal with Texas struggling two losses to the identical workforce, one coming within the (further) convention championship sport that different at-large groups wouldn’t be enjoying in. (Cough, Notre Dame. Cough, Ohio State.) The committee finally dropped Texas only one spot in its rankings, which allowed the Longhorns the best seed obtainable for an at-large workforce. This group favored Texas. It didn’t matter that they didn’t have loads of meat on that schedule; the Longhorns had been ranked excessive all the season regardless of groups (like Ohio State) under it with much better wins.
Meanwhile, Penn State misplaced to No. 1 Oregon by eight factors in a really enjoyable, exhilarating Big Ten championship sport. The Nittany Lions, just like the Longhorns, solely dropped one spot within the rankings resulting from their convention championship sport loss. (Essentially, each groups have been bumped by Georgia leapfrogging them as much as the No. 2 seed line.) Penn State solely had one top-25 win on its resume, however the committee additionally favored this workforce, even after it misplaced to 2 of the very best groups within the nation.
Both Texas and Penn State stayed above 11-1 Notre Dame, which was an fascinating selection by the committee. The Fighting Irish had been one of many nation’s most dominant groups all season lengthy, however in addition they had the worst lack of any CFP contender and had only one top-25 win on its resume. Even although I might make a case to place the Irish forward of Texas and/or Penn State as a result of I believe the Irish are a extra dominant and constant workforce, I may see why the committee wished to place the 2 groups with higher losses forward of the one with a loss to Northern Illinois. The committee was keen to forgive that loss however not neglect it fully. And all three groups get to host first-round video games, so all is finally nicely.
Georgia, Texas have best paths ahead in CFP
Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry talk about which groups have the smoothest shot to the College Football Playoff championship, together with how Carson Beck’s well being might influence Georgia’s probabilities.
Lessons discovered
The choice committee didn’t need to fully upend the system wherein faculty soccer operates in the present day. It wished to keep away from penalizing the groups that performed in convention championship video games so these video games proceed to be performed. They’re worthwhile to the leagues themselves, and if SMU had been knocked out of the bracket for taking part in in and shedding one, nobody would ever be incentivized to play in them once more.
Texas, Penn State, Indiana and different faculties additionally confirmed us that the committee was keen to forgive a comparatively weak convention schedule. CFP committee chair Warde Manuel mentioned a number of weeks again that groups can solely play the opponents they’re scheduled to play. That raised loads of eyebrows on the time, as a result of we’re conditioned to count on the choice committee chair to wax poetically about power of schedule. But it’s actually an interesting assertion within the period of 16- to 18-team leagues that now not use divisions. Schools throughout the similar league have drastically completely different schedules by means of no fault of their very own. And this committee determined that it wouldn’t penalize Indiana for not enjoying the identical groups that Ohio State did. Even Texas didn’t get penalized for taking part in an SEC schedule far weaker than Georgia’s.
The committee additionally appeared conscious of the narratives surrounding its ultimate choices. Had Alabama gotten in as a three-loss at-large workforce a lot of the dialog surrounding the bracket could be about SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s affect on the committee and the CFP itself. We’ve already had commissioners calling out the committee for perceived model bias, each on the particular person college stage and for the SEC as a league — which I’d argue definitely performed a job in Florida State’s snub in 2023. If the general public and representatives of the colleges themselves misplaced extra religion within the committee as a result of it picked a big-name college that appeared to get an countless quantity of mulligans, nicely, this complete discourse would have gotten much more poisonous.
Here’s the total schedule for the 2024-25 College Football Playoff.
What comes subsequent
Well, we’re going to proceed to listen to complaints from SEC nation. I’m positive Sankey will criticize the committee for not rewarding his groups for taking part in such rigorous schedules (regardless that Alabama misplaced to groups that went .500 on the season however performed higher towards the great SEC groups). Sankey has at all times been assured that SEC groups would get respect from the choice committee, regardless of the make-up of the group or the kind of season the highest SEC groups are literally having. But he and Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti additionally put the committee on discover a number of months in the past by saying they’d be watching how the 13-member group evaluated and seeded their groups. Sankey gained’t be blissful that one in all his groups was the primary one out (and that Ole Miss and South Carolina have been out as nicely).
It’s potential that results in Sankey pushing for CFP reform forward of the brand new CFP contract in 2026 — or perhaps even subsequent season. Does he get on board with the Big Ten’s concept of as many as three or 4 a number of computerized qualifiers for the Big Ten and SEC, which might then take decision-making out of the fingers of people on committee? If the highest 4 SEC groups robotically certified for the bracket yearly, Sankey wouldn’t need to stump for his groups publicly like he did this month. Coaches additionally wouldn’t complain about difficult schedules as a lot in the event that they weren’t evaluated by a committee that hyperfixates on the variety of losses within the loss column.
Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne mentioned Sunday night time that he would re-evaluate Alabama’s strategy to nonconference scheduling shifting ahead (regardless that two SEC losses have been what stored the Tide out of the sphere). He’s basically saying that there’s no profit to scheduling different Power 4 groups within the nonconference if it might put on you out forward of a troublesome SEC slate. I’d argue marquee nonconference video games might assist offset a nasty SEC loss (say, to Vanderbilt) afterward the within the yr, however this seems to be a speaking level that’s gaining steam in a league that performs simply eight convention video games. While I do agree that groups akin to Texas and Penn State didn’t appear to get dinged this yr for an absence of massive wins, I believe Alabama’s points are literally with its personal convention … not nonconference scheduling. The SEC added Texas and Oklahoma realizing everybody’s league schedules would get harder. They added them as a result of they’re massive manufacturers with historic success, and that elevated the worth of the SEC as an entire. If you’re pissed off that the schedule is so powerful that you could possibly lose to a workforce in the course of the pack of the SEC, that’s actually a problem with how the league is structured and the way it’s scheduling.
