What will Syria’s future appear to be? The reply might lie in different Arab international locations’ current pasts

CAIRO (AP) — Even with hopes working excessive, a lot can go improper when a rustic ousts a longtime dictator and tries to start out anew. The Middle Eastern and North African nations that tried to transition to democracy in recent times can attest to that.

Now it’s Syria’s flip to attempt to get it proper.

It’s onerous to attract classes from the experiences of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Sudan for the reason that wave of Arab Spring uprisings that started in 2011, as every nation’s dynamics are completely different, But there are widespread themes.

In some instances, “the Revolution” was misplaced when armed factions battled it out for energy or an formidable would-be strongman emerged. In others, the miliary refused to cede management to civilians or overseas international locations fueled conflicts by backing one aspect or one other with cash and weapons.

Questions should be requested earlier than main choices are made that may spark a destabilizing backlash: How do you take care of the previous police state — purge or compromise? What do you do first, maintain elections or write a structure? And how do you repair a crippled financial system riddled with corruption?

So far, Syria’s transition has been surprisingly clean. But it’s solely been two weeks since President Bashar Assad was toppled, and plenty of of those self same risks lurk within the background.

The insurgents who ousted Assad are rooted in extremist Islamist ideology, and although they’ve vowed to create a pluralist system, it isn’t clear how or whether or not they plan to share energy.

Other armed factions — and even remnants of Assad’s feared safety forces — might lash out. And it stays to be seen whether or not the Kurds, who maintain autonomous rule within the east, will probably be introduced again into the fold, particularly when Turkey fiercely opposes the principle Kurdish faction.

Groups such because the Alawites, to whom Assad’s household belongs, worry being squeezed out of any function, or worse, being focused for revenge.

Here’s a have a look at the facility dynamics in a few of these different international locations:

Yemen

Protests compelled Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign in November 2011, ending his 33-year rule. Under a deal brokered by Gulf international locations, Saleh obtained immunity and handed his powers to his vp, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

Hadi was to function caretaker president for 2 years, throughout which a brand new structure could be written, main finally to elections. But Saleh, who remained within the capital, Sanaa, allied himself with Houthi rebels based mostly within the north — his longtime enemy — in a bid to regain energy.

Backed by Saleh’s loyalists, the Houthis seized Sanaa and far of the populated middle of the nation. Hadi and his authorities fled south, the place they’re based mostly within the metropolis of Aden and management southern and far of jap Yemen.

A Saudi-led coalition of Arab international locations launched a bombardment marketing campaign geared toward restoring Hadi’s authorities. Since then, Yemen has been torn by civil conflict that has killed greater than 150,000 individuals and brought on one of many world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The conflict grew to become a proxy battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Yemen has remained break up between the Houthis, who later broke with Saleh’s camp and killed Saleh, and Hadi’s authorities. Various militias nominally again Hadi but additionally have their very own pursuits and are funded by the United Arab Emirates.

Libya

Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi met essentially the most violent finish of any of the area’s strongmen. An rebellion become a civil conflict, after which with NATO backing, the rebels seized the capital, Tripoli, and killed a fleeing Gadhafi in October 2011.

The oil-rich nation shortly splintered into areas managed by a dizzying array of militias, together with native and tribal teams, nationalists and mainstream Islamist factions, and diehard jihadis resembling al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.

Attempts to sew it again along with elections or agreements have failed.

A disputed parliamentary election in 2014 led to 2 rival administrations: one within the east backed by highly effective navy commander Khalifa Hifter, and the opposite within the west based mostly in Tripoli that’s backed by militias and acknowledged by the United Nations.

Hifter tried to grab the west in 2019, triggering a 14-month conflict. Then, an try at a unity authorities and new elections fell aside, and as soon as once more Libya was left break up between east-west governments.

Foreign powers, together with Russia, Turkey and the UAE, backed varied sides. European international locations have funneled cash to the Tripoli authorities making an attempt to stem the movement of migrants from Africa by Libya towards Europe, however the cash has largely helped fund militias. Efforts to finish the battle stay deadlocked.

Sudan

In Sudan, the highly effective navy has thwarted makes an attempt to transition to an elected civilian authorities.

Pro-democracy protests prompted the navy to take away strongman Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, and the generals took energy for themselves. The protesters stayed within the streets, demanding a handover of energy to civilians, regardless of a crackdown that killed a whole bunch.

Finally, the generals agreed to a power-sharing take care of the pro-democracy alliance that led the protests.

A civilian prime minister led a Cabinet backed by a council headed by two highly effective generals, together with one infamous for atrocities dedicated in Darfur and throughout the 2019 crackdown on protesters. But simply earlier than the navy was supposed handy over the council’s management to civilians, the generals orchestrated a coup.

A couple of months later, in April 2023, the generals turned on one another, triggering a conflict by which their forces have battled all through the nation, together with within the capital, Khartoum. The conflict has been marked by atrocities, brought on widespread starvation and pushed hundreds of thousands from their properties, turning into the world’s worst displacement disaster.

Tunisia

The Arab Spring began in Tunisia greater than 13 years in the past. Until not too long ago, the nation was hailed as a task mannequin within the transition to democracy. It held free elections and drafted a structure lauded by Western rights teams.

But since being elected in 2019, President Kais Saied has elevated his powers in what activists name a backslide from democracy. Saied briefly suspended the parliament, redrafted the structure and launched a crackdown on his opponents, imprisoning a whole bunch allegedly for undermining state safety — a declare autocrats have lengthy used to stamp out dissent.

Egypt

The navy has been the principle energy participant in Egypt. It seized direct management after 18 days of protests compelled longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak to resign on Feb. 11, 2011.

Within 15 months, parliamentary and presidential elections had been held. The Muslim Brotherhood, essentially the most highly effective opposition power throughout Mubarak’s period, swept each votes. Despite repeatedly insisting it wouldn’t search to dominate politics, it shaped a majority in parliament and created a Brotherhood-led authorities.

Over the subsequent yr, turmoil elevated over accusations by opponents that the Brotherhood was unfairly imposing its will on the nation, together with writing an Islamist-leaning structure. Many, together with the massive Coptic Christian minority, feared Islamist rule.

Amid anti-Brotherhood protests, the navy stepped in and eliminated President Mohammed Morsi in July 2013, a transfer supported by many secular events and activists. It launched a ferocious crackdown on the Brotherhood, killing a whole bunch. Militant violence swelled with assaults on safety forces and Christians.

Military chief Abdel Fattah el-Sissi was elected president in 2014 and has since elevated the affect of the military on the federal government and financial system. The authorities has gone additional than Mubarak did in stifling dissent, arresting Islamists and secular activists, and silencing media criticism.