One of the most important dangers for Syria’s peaceable transition lies within the nation’s northeast. While many Syrian Arabs across the nation had been celebrating the demise of the regime headed by Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and the top of a long-running civil battle, Syrian Kurds within the northeast had been dealing with an existential disaster.
Clashes between Syrian fighters backed by Turkey and Syrian Kurdish forces had been of nice concern United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersonmentioned this week. The different speedy areas of concern are Israel’s ongoing incursions into Syria and the safety of Syria’s minorities.
What is occurring within the northeast?
Fighting within the Syrian civil battle had been frozen for years, and the opposition teams controlling their totally different areas within the north tended to not conflict. But over the previous few days, preventing erupted once more.
After the autumn of the Assad regime, the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), a gaggle of fighters backed by Turkey, has tried to advance into areas managed by Syrian Kurds.
The Turkish authorities opposes the Kurdish presence on their border, seeing them as a menace. This is due to a long-running Kurdish wrestle for independence in Turkey that has typically turned violent.
As the Turkish-backed militias have superior, the Syrian Kurdish forces there, referred to as the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), have misplaced territory. Turkey has additionally used airstrikes and drones to assist the SNA’s advance.
On Tuesday, the 2 events mentioned they negotiated a ceasefire settlement with assist from the United States. This will contain the withdrawal of Syrian Kurdish forces from among the areas they beforehand managed.
Another insurgent group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has taken management of the Arab-majority metropolis of Deir al-Zour. The SDF withdrew from there following native unrest. The US-trained Syrian Free Army (SFA) has additionally taken some terrain right here.
The SDF has now mentioned it’s open to taking part in a brand new political course of in Syria.
Why is it occurring?
The Kurdish persons are typically described as one of many greatest ethnic teams on this planet and not using a nation of their very own. If they did have a rustic, it could lie within the Kurdish-majority areas the place Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey meet.
There is a Kurdish independence motion in every of these nations, whose members have lobbied and even fought for an unbiased state or Kurdish autonomy, with various levels of success. Kurdish independence actions in every of the nations have additionally been repressed by their respective governments — additionally with various levels of success. In Turkey, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK, turned to violence to attempt to obtain their goals.
In Syria, close to the beginning of the civil battle, round 2012, the forces of now-deposed dictator Assad, withdrew from Kurdish-majority areas in northeastern and japanese Syria with out a lot of a battle. The transfer was not with out controversy.
Syrian Arab revolutionaries mentioned they did not need the Kurds to be unbiased from Syria and that the nation ought to stay united. There was additionally scurrilous discuss whether or not the Kurds had betrayed the unique aims of Syria’s revolutionaries, to overthrow the regime, and that in a bid to pursue their very own purpose of Kurdish independence, the Kurds would keep neutrality within the civil battle. The Kurds by no means actually fought in opposition to Assad’s forces, and this alleged “betrayal” precipitated antipathy between Syrian Arabs and Syrian Kurds, layered on high of earlier ethnic tensions and racism.
During the 13-year civil battle, the US acquired concerned with Syria’s Kurds, allying with them to fight the extremist group referred to as the “Islamic State” (IS). The group got here from Iraq and, profiting from the chaos of the civil battle, arrange a “Syrian capital” for its deliberate “caliphate” in Raqqa.
US and Kurdish forces had been the most important gamers within the battle in opposition to the IS group in Syria. And whereas preventing in opposition to the IS group, Syrian Kurds additionally expanded the terrain underneath their management, together with Arab-majority areas like Raqqa and Deir al-Zour.
Locals have protested in opposition to the Kurdish management there, together with this week once they insisted the Kurdish forces enable different insurgent teams to enter.
All these points, previous and current, stay on the root of the issues the Syrian Kurds are actually coping with. Now that the Assad regime has gone, they’re being squeezed between Syrian Arab teams and Turkey, with the US as their solely ally.
In reality, one of many questions that almost all worries Syria’s Kurds is how lengthy the American alliance will final after President-elect Donald Trump reenters the White House. There are fears the incoming Trump administration will withdraw US troopers from Syria altogether, abandoning the Kurds. Currently, there are nonetheless an estimated 900 US troopers within the nation.
Why does it matter?
An estimated 4.6 million individuals had been beforehand residing within the Kurdish-controlled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES. The space can be typically known as Rojava by native Kurds and was additionally dwelling to Kurds from Iraq, Turkey and Iran.
Since preventing started this week, the UN estimates over 100,000 individuals within the space have fled the preventing, most of them Kurds. Several hundred individuals have been killed within the preventing.
Apart from the humanitarian points of the scenario, the territory the Kurds held included most of Syria’s oil fields and was additionally a serious wheat producer. In explicit, management over Syria’s oil fields shall be vital to the brand new authorities, as revenue from them will assist the nation’s devastated economic system.
Experts additionally recommend the Turkish-backed SNA’s race to seize as a lot territory as potential goes past Turkish goals to get the Kurds off the border. Territorial management can be about leverage and energy as the subsequent Syrian authorities is shaped.
Additionally, the SDF runs massive jail camps in northeastern Syria, which home hundreds of former IS extremists. Previously, SDF fighters have mentioned that if they’re attacked, they will be compelled to go away the jail camps unguarded.
Edited by: Sean M. Sinico
