ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — As forces against Syrian President Bashar Assad make swift and vital advances in Syria, Turkey is watching intently for any spillover. Turkey, which shares a 911-kilometer- (566 mile-) lengthy frontier with Syria, has been a most important backer of opposition teams aiming to topple Assad because the outbreak of the Syrian civil conflict in 2011. The battle led to a refugee inflow and Turkey now hosts 3 million Syrians.
Turkish officers have strongly rejected claims of any involvement within the offensive that’s being led by the jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in addition to an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias referred to as the Syrian National Army.
Analysts nevertheless, imagine that the offensive, which seems to be aligned with Turkey’s long-time targets, couldn’t have gone forward with out Ankara’s consent. It has allowed Turkey to push again in opposition to Kurdish forces in Syria allied to its sworn enemy, the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday appeared in charge his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, for the current developments.
“We had made a name to Assad. We mentioned, ‘Come, let’s meet, let’s decide the way forward for Syria collectively.’ Unfortunately, we couldn’t get a optimistic response from Assad,” Erdogan mentioned.
“These troublesome marches that proceed all through the area will not be what we wish.”
Here’s a have a look at Turkey’s place, how the flareup may serve the nation’s aims and attainable dangers forward:
Ties with Syria
Turkey has said its help for Syria’s territorial integrity: the very last thing it needs is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous area on it border.
Ankara has performed a number of incursions into Syria since 2016 with the goal of pushing again the Islamic State group or Kurdish militants and making a buffer zone alongside its border, and now controls a stretch of territory in northern Syria.
Turkey has referred to as for a discount of tensions and reconciliation between Syria’s authorities and the opposition. It has been concerned in diplomatic efforts to resolve the battle, together with holding talks with Assad’s most important supporters, Russia and Iran.
Recently Ankara has sought a reconciliation with Assad with the intention to mitigate the risk to Turkey from Kurdish militias and make sure the secure return of refugees. Assad has rebuffed Turkey’s overtures.
Where Turkey stands
Turkish officers have strongly rejected claims of involvement within the anti-government offensive, stating opposition to developments that enhance instability within the area.
“All statements that declare Turkey provoked or that Turkey supported this are unfaithful. They are all lies,” mentioned Omer Celik, spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling occasion. “What we wish in Syria shouldn’t be in any means a rise in violence or clashes.”
Analysts say, nevertheless, that the insurgent offensive would have been inconceivable and not using a inexperienced gentle from Turkey. Despite designating HTS as a terrorist group, Turkey is believed to exert vital affect over the group.
Turkish officers say Ankara stalled the offensive for months. Opposition forces lastly went forward with the assault after the Syrian authorities attacked opposition-held areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey to de-escalate the battle.
The offensive was initially meant to be restricted, the officers mentioned, however expanded after Syrian authorities forces started retreating from their positions.
Gonul Tol, director of the U.S.-based Middle East Institutes’ Turkish Program, says Ankara doesn’t have full management over HTS, however has supplied oblique help, permitting help vans to go to the HTS stronghold of Idlib. The settlement between Turkey, Russia and Iran additionally helped the group to thrive, Tol mentioned.
Risks forward
The offensive may pose a number of dangers to Turkey, together with stoking tensions with Syria’s backers, Iran and Russia. Turkey, a NATO member, has sought to steadiness shut relations with each Ukraine and Russia within the face of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its southern neighbor.
Increasing instability in Syria may ship a brand new wave of refugees towards the Turkish border.
Tol, who’s the writer of a e-book on Turkey and Syria, mentioned that though Russia is preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin can be unwilling to see Assad fall.
“I doubt Russia goes to surrender on Assad,” Tol mentioned. “Syria is simply too necessary for Putin.”
Alignment of targets
The insurgents’ offensive has raised hopes that Turkey could obtain its strategic aims in Syria, together with securing its southern borders and facilitating the secure return of Syrian refugees.
Since 2022, Turkey has sought to normalize relations with Syria. However, Assad insists on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, whereas Turkey maintains it can not withdraw so long as threats from Kurdish militias persist.
Analysts imagine the offensive may strain Assad into reconciliation with Turkey and fascinating in negotiations with the Syrian opposition.
Additionally, it might enable Turkey to push the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the YPG, away from its borders. Despite the YPG’s alliance with the U.S. in opposition to the Islamic State group, Turkey views it as a terrorist group.
Recently, one other opposition pressure, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo. The chief of Turkey’s nationalist occasion, an Erdogan ally, has referred to as for focusing on the Kurdish-held metropolis of Manbij subsequent.
There are additionally hopes that opposition management of Aleppo will encourage refugees to return, with Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya noting that about 40% of Syrian refugees in Turkey are from Aleppo.
However, Tol famous that Turkey could not be capable of management the HTS because it forges forward and pursues its personal pursuits. “The query is, will the HTS hearken to Erdogan after having gained a lot floor?” she mentioned.
Tol added: “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey actually need a jihadist group to be operating a neighboring nation?”
