‘You could not write a greater situation’: Lions-Vikings greatest matchups, keys to victory, extra

More than three many years have handed since an NFL regular-season recreation carried the stakes of Sunday evening’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions at Ford Field (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).

The winner will clinch the NFC North and the No. 1 seed within the convention playoffs, whereas the loser would be the greatest workforce in league historical past (by successful proportion) to have did not win a division. Not since 1993, when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the New York Giants in extra time, has the No. 1 seed been decided by a single recreation within the ultimate week of a season.

“This is what you are in it for, man. Ultimately, that is it,” Lions coach Dan Campbell mentioned earlier this week. “I imply, you could not write a greater situation.”

The Lions gained the primary conflict this season, holding on for a 31-29 victory in Week 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings misplaced the next week to the Rams however constructed a nine-game successful streak from that time ahead, permitting them to match the Lions’ 14-2 document. The groups’ mixed .875 successful proportion is the best in an NFL season finale since 1977 (12-1 Broncos vs. 11-2 Cowboys, .885), in line with the Elias Sports Bureau, and it is the primary regular-season recreation in NFL historical past between groups with 13 or extra wins.

The Lions have misplaced solely as soon as since Week 2, however a gradual stream of accidents to key defensive gamers units up the chance of a high-scoring recreation Sunday evening. The over/below of 57.5 is the NFL’s highest since 2021 and its second highest previously 5 seasons, in line with ESPN BET.

ESPN Lions reporter Eric Woodyard and Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert set the desk for Sunday’s epic matchup:

Dan Campbell is 4-1 in opposition to Kevin O’Connell; what has been the distinction?

Woodyard: It’s easy: Campbell’s offense has been higher than O’Connell’s protection.

The Lions have scored 30-plus factors in 4 straight video games in opposition to the Vikings, together with of their win in opposition to Minnesota in Week 7. The 31 factors Detroit put up have been essentially the most the Vikings have allowed in any recreation this season. Lions vast receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has shined in opposition to Minnesota, with a receiving landing and at the very least 100 receiving yards of their previous three matchups.

While the Vikings are 1-4 in opposition to the Lions for the reason that begin of the 2022 season, they’re 33-12 in opposition to the remainder of the NFL. The Vikings have allowed 29.8 factors per recreation in opposition to the Lions and 20.9 factors per recreation in opposition to the remainder of the NFL over that span.

Seifert: The Vikings have not at all times been at full personnel capability for these video games. Most notably, backup quarterback Nick Mullens began each 2023 contests, every gained by the Lions. But in all probability the one largest issue has been the 9 turnovers the Vikings dedicated in these 4 losses, and the next minus-7 turnover margin.

“Any self-inflicted belongings you do in opposition to good soccer groups goes to [make it] laborious to win,” O’Connell mentioned. “We’ve had possibilities to win in opposition to these guys.”

The Vikings even have a minus-10 sack differential in these video games, largely an indication of their protection’s incapability to get constant stress on Lions quarterback Jared Goff.

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Who is crucial participant in Sunday’s recreation?

Woodyard: Goff anchors the offense, and when he is on his A-game, the Lions are robust to beat — notably in opposition to Minnesota. In 5 video games in opposition to the Vikings for the reason that begin of the 2022 season, Goff has a completion proportion of 71.8 with 9 passing touchdowns and one interception. He additionally has 250-plus passing yards in every of these video games.

Goff feels he is peaking because the Lions eye the No. 1 seed.

“I’m in yr 9 proper now, and I feel I mentioned final yr and the yr earlier than, I’m form of getting into my prime then. I’m in all probability proper in my prime now and feeling fairly good and hope my prime lasts fairly a while,” Goff mentioned Wednesday.

Seifert: Quarterback Sam Darnold has answered each problem he has confronted to date in resuscitating his profession this season, and now he’ll face one other: Can he keep his efficiency in essentially the most pressure-packed scene of his NFL life?

In his previous seven video games, Darnold has averaged 287 yards passing whereas throwing 18 landing passes and two interceptions.

He has an unlimited alternative to maintain it going — the Lions’ injury-depleted protection has allowed the NFL’s second-most passing yards (1,808) and the best QBR to opposing quarterbacks (73.0) since Week 11 — however Darnold holds the keys to the Vikings’ means to maintain tempo with the Lions’ personal explosive offense.

What’s a sneaky necessary matchup?

Woodyard: It’ll be fascinating to see how Detroit’s secondary defends Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who has torched them. Jefferson has averaged 182.5 receiving yards per recreation on the highway in opposition to the Lions. And it was a wild December for Detroit, because it each scored and allowed 30-plus factors in three totally different video games. That is tied with the 2018 Rams for essentially the most by any workforce in a calendar month in NFL historical past, per ESPN Research.

In the matchups in opposition to Jefferson, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn known as him a “particular one,” however they’re dedicated to stopping him.

“Great gamers are going to finish up making performs in some unspecified time in the future within the recreation. It’s laborious to carry these guys down, however we’ll do every thing we are able to to do it,” Glenn mentioned Thursday.

Seifert: Let’s have a look at two right here. The first provides to the already tough problem going through the Lions’ move protection. The Lions have dedicated 18 defensive move interference penalties, tied for many within the NFL, and can face a Vikings offense that has gained extra yards (328) on flags for defensive move interference than some other NFL workforce.

And this may not assist issues for the Lions: Referee Brad Rogers’ crew has thrown extra flags for defensive move interference (26) than any of the NFL’s different 17 officiating crews.

Second, the Lions’ aggressive fourth-down offense will match up in opposition to the perfect fourth-down protection — by an extended shot — within the NFL. Vikings opponents have transformed 35.5% of fourth-down conversions this season, regardless of an NFL-high 31 makes an attempt. The league common is 57.3%. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has put a serious emphasis on getting ready for the down, as groups throughout the league put it to use extra typically.

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How worse off would the loser be heading into the playoffs?

Woodyard: This might be the distinction in a professional Super Bowl path for the Lions. Lose, and Detroit would drop to the fifth seed, the place it may face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons or the Los Angeles Rams on the highway.

For a workforce that has been gutted by accidents, notably on protection, that would not be a great state of affairs — particularly through the postseason, when the Lions’ current defensive deficiencies can be heightened.

Win, and Detroit wouldn’t solely safe the bye week and home-field benefit, but additionally give themselves an opportunity at returning a few of these key gamers, similar to operating again David Montgomery, with a strong week of relaxation.

Seifert: It’s laborious to quantify the distinction between successful and dropping for the Vikings.

With a win, they get per week off after what guarantees to be a bodily and intense recreation, adopted by a house playoff schedule at U.S. Bank Stadium — the place they have been 7-1 through the common season.

With a loss, they’d be the primary 14-win workforce in NFL historical past to play a highway wild-card recreation, probably on a brief week if the NFL schedules them for a Saturday recreation. That appears particularly related for the Vikings, who’re 7-1 on the highway this season however have the NFL’s oldest roster primarily based on snap-weighted age.