TOPSHOT – Fighters hearth in the direction of Syrian Army troops within the Rashidin district on the outskirts of Aleppo on Nov. 29, 2024.
Bakr Alkasem | Afp | Getty Images
The greater than 50-year Assad dynastic dictatorship was on the cusp of collapse on Sunday, as insurgent forces seized the capital of Damascus in a lightning offensive that has swept the nation’s largest cities in a matter of days.
The protection forces of the Russia and Iran-backed authorities have been struggling to stymy the insurgent advance that kicked off with the fast sweep of northern metropolis Aleppo final week, breaking a years-long stalemate. The assault has been led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — which the U.S. and U.N. Security Council designated as a terrorist group — and its allies, who’ve widened the scope of their marketing campaign to the south of the nation and now additionally captured the important thing cities of Hama and Deir el-Zor.
“We declare the town of Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad,” Hassan Abdul-Ghani, senior HTS commander, stated in a submit on WhatsApp. “To the displaced individuals world wide, Free Syria awaits you.”
CNBC couldn’t independently confirm developments of the bottom.
The whereabouts of President Bashar al-Assad, who assumed management in 2000 after the demise of his father Hafez, have been unsure. Multiple media experiences, which CNBC couldn’t independently affirm, state he has fled Damascus.
Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali stated he remained at his residence and was ready to help the continuity of Syrian governance.
“We imagine that Syria belongs to all Syrians and to all its residents, and that this nation is usually a regular state, one which builds good relations with its neighbors with out coming into into any regional alliances or blocs,” he stated, in line with NBC News reporting. “This matter is left to any management chosen by the Syrian individuals, and we’re able to cooperate with them by offering all potential facilitation.”
The U.N. Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen on Sunday stressed it is a “watershed second” within the Syrian civil struggle, calling for “steady and inclusive transitional preparations.”
Several nations have evacuated their embassies amid the Damascus battle, with outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden “carefully monitoring” the occasions and retaining contact with regional companions, in line with White House National Security Council Spokesman Sean Savett.
Distracted allies
The advance on Damascus comes after militants reached Homs – the nation’s third-largest metropolis and a chokepoint between rebel-held territories and the capital metropolis. Holding Homs would pose vital challenges for the rebels, who must confront a focus of presidency forces and achieve the help of native pro-Assad Alawite communities, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Qutaiba Idlbi wrote on Dec. 5.
“More importantly, the rebels advancing towards Homs will take a look at Russia’s redlines in Syria. So far, Russia has been absent from offering severe army help to uphold Assad’s defenses throughout areas he is shedding to the rebels,” Idlbi added. “While Russia has performed some airstrikes in Idlib and Aleppo to counter insurgent advances, it has not engaged immediately in Hama. This restraint displays Moscow’s strategic calculations to keep away from overextension.”
Syria has been rocked by 13 years of civil battle, sparked by the March 2011 pro-democracy demonstrations in opposition to repressive governmental rule, in lockstep with related regional uprisings through the Arab Spring. The Assad administration answered the Syrian protests with lethal pressure, resulting in requires his resignation, nationwide unrest and the rise of opposition teams. Peace talks carried out individually by the U.N. and by Russia, Iran, and Turkey have but to bear fruit.
The Syrian escalations happen as Assad’s allies Russia and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have been more and more distracted by battle on their very own residence fronts, partaking Ukraine and Israel, respectively. The Syrian unrest exacerbates the broader battle within the Middle East, which was set off in October 2023 by a terror assault perpetrated by Palestinian militant group Hamas in Israel, resulting in the Jewish nation’s retaliatory army marketing campaign within the Gaza Strip and to its hearth exchanges with Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthi and Iran.
“This lightning-fast offensive is a monumental shift within the Syrian battle and highlights the regime’s inherent weak spot,” wrote Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program on the Center for Strategic and International Studies, additional noting that the “fragile stasis collapsed as Assad’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, have been considerably weakened” by Israeli army offensives, whereas “Russia has been slowed down in Ukraine and unrest in Georgia.”
In an update on his Truth Social platform, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump urged Assad’s “protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not excited about defending him any longer. There was no cause for Russia to be there within the first place. They misplaced all curiosity in Syria due to Ukraine.”
Markets have been watching the army developments for indicators of an impression on provides within the oil-rich Middle East, in addition to additional commerce disruptions alongside crucial commerce routes.
