At least in concept, 92% of the committee’s job ought to already be accomplished.
It seems to be a provided that Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Notre Dame and (most likely) SMU and Indiana are in.
The winners of the Big 12 and Mountain West championship video games are additionally in.
So, until Clemson wins the ACC and closes out the sector, that leaves one spot remaining with a number of groups providing compelling circumstances for inclusion.
But let’s begin with one thing that must be apparent: The twelfth staff to make the sector shall be flawed. This is not a brand new phenomenon primarily based on weak schedules or surprising losses. The No. 12 staff within the rating yearly has its share of warts. That’s why it is No. 12. We’re simply used to arguing over a prime 4, not No. 12, so wrapping our heads round a playoff staff with a loss to — oh, as an instance Vanderbilt — appears completely fallacious. When it involves choosing 12 groups, there’ll at all times be causes to argue somebody does not belong or has accomplished one thing so inexcusably terrible they need to be excluded with out additional debate.
But, in fact, if that had been true, Notre Dame would already be packing its baggage for the Music City Bowl.
Instead, we must be viewing the method of choosing the No. 12 staff by way of an optimist’s lens. What have these groups accomplished to earn their means in? Why ought to we imagine they’re able to — properly, perhaps not profitable all of it, however not less than placing on a superb present within the opening spherical? What’s the gross sales pitch for inclusion?
And after we view the choice by way of that lens, there are not less than three cheap, logical paths to observe.
But that is a couple of assembly of the College Football Playoff choice committee, the place lodge safety on the Gaylord Texan Hotel has express orders to maintain purpose and logic from stepping foot on the premises, and so, in fact, the one staff that is not left standing on the finish of these logical pathways is precisely the staff it has tabbed because the chief within the clubhouse: Alabama.
And that, associates, means a whole lot of applications have ample purpose to be indignant.
So, let’s stroll down these logical pathways as a way of underscoring simply how ridiculous the committee’s take on these rankings appears, bringing us to this week’s Anger Index.
There’s an Occam’s razor side to this conundrum that the committee ought to’ve thought-about: The easiest, most elegant resolution is often the fitting one.
This was the committee’s resolution again within the first yr of the playoff. In 2014, the committee was left to determine between 11-1 TCU and 11-1 Baylor. In the common season, Baylor had overwhelmed TCU face to face by 3 factors, however the Bears additionally had a slightly ugly 41-27 loss to West Virginia. The Big 12, at the moment, did not have a convention championship sport, leaving it to the committee to parse out who was extra deserving of the No. 4 spot within the playoff.
The committee’s reply? Ohio State!
Baylor received its regular-season finale over No. 9 Kansas State by 11. TCU received its finale towards Iowa State by 55-3. And but the committee moved up 11-1 Ohio State to No. 4, bypassing each Big 12 faculties. It was lovely in its simplicity. Why make an unattainable selection between Door No. 1 and Door No. 2 when Door No. 3 is already huge open?
This is not essentially Miami’s greatest case for the ultimate playoff slot, in fact, however the truth that the Hurricanes are 10-2 and people SEC faculties vying for the area are all 9-3 is the right alternative for the committee to easily say, “This staff has extra wins,” the identical means it stated “Ohio State has a convention championship” as a very cheap justification for avoiding a troublesome name.
And it is not as if Miami can be a nasty selection. The Canes demolished Florida, a staff that beat Ole Miss. The Canes demolished USF, a staff that took Alabama into the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa. The Canes have two highway losses by a mixed 9 factors towards two fairly good groups — No. 22 Syracuse and a 7-5 Georgia Tech staff that simply took Georgia to eight overtimes (and doubtless ought to’ve received if the officers had been watching the sport). QB Cam Ward is extraordinary, the offense is enjoyable, the Canes can play with just about anybody, and none of their losses are unhealthy. Isn’t that successfully South Carolina’s pitch?
So, yeah, giving the twelfth playoff spot to Miami would’ve been a straightforward win for the committee. Instead, it selected ache.
Indeed, it docked Miami extra spots for a highway loss to the No. 22 staff within the nation than it did for Ohio State dropping to 7-5 Michigan.
If the committee did not need to prioritize the only resolution by going with the staff with the perfect document, then actually you’d suppose the argument got here all the way down to this: Not all wins are equal, and due to this fact we must always select the staff that had confirmed essentially the most on the sector.
Well, people, the reply to that query is completely Ole Miss.
Ole Miss and Alabama each beat South Carolina face to face, however the Rebels dominated their sport, whereas the Tide snuck by with a two-point win.
Ole Miss and Alabama have the identical greatest win, towards No. 5 Georgia. But Alabama got here inside minutes of one of the crucial epic collapses in faculty soccer historical past, narrowly escaping with a seven-point win. Ole Miss, alternatively, beat Georgia by 18 in a sport that was by no means significantly shut. In reality, have you learnt the final staff to beat Georgia by extra factors than Ole Miss did this yr? That can be the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the perfect faculty soccer staff ever assembled.
Ole Miss is ranked greater in SP+, too. The Rebels are an analytics dream staff, with one of many prime offenses and defenses within the nation statistically. SP+ has the Rebels at No. 3 — forward of Texas! — whereas Alabama checks in at No. 5, Miami at No. 10 and South Carolina at No. 13.
OK, however what about power of schedule? Doesn’t that favor Alabama? It does, however that metric is not precisely what it appears. According to ESPN, the Tide performed the Seventeenth-toughest schedule within the nation, whereas Ole Miss performed the thirty first. That looks as if a giant distinction, proper? But after we take a look at the exhausting numbers slightly than the rating, the distinction is barely about 1% (Bama at 98.97 and Ole Miss at 97.66). That’s mainly the distinction between Alabama taking part in Western Kentucky and Ole Miss taking part in MTSU. Oh, and if power of schedule actually issues that a lot, South Carolina ranks forward of each of them.
And let’s speak about that schedule, as a result of it wasn’t the “power” that proved to be Alabama’s undoing. The Tide misplaced to a pair of 6-6 groups. It was the mediocrity on their slate that killed them.
OK, sure, Ole Miss misplaced to a few fairly common groups, too — 7-5 Florida and 4-8 Kentucky. But once more, if the information had been all that mattered to the committee, Miami can be within the playoff. So let’s evaluate SP+ rankings for these losses.
Alabama misplaced to SP+ Nos. 8, 31 and 58 for a mean of 32.3.
Ole Miss misplaced to SP+ Nos. 17, 22 and 48 for a mean of 29.0.
So, on common, the Rebels’ losses weren’t as unhealthy as Alabama’s. Their wins had been markedly higher than Alabama’s. Their underlying stats are higher than Alabama’s. Their schedule power was successfully equal to Alabama’s.
So clarify to us once more why Ole Miss is not within the No. 11 slot, as a result of we’re at an entire loss to know it.
To ensure, there’s not a logical argument in South Carolina’s favor. The Gamecocks have the identical document as Alabama and Ole Miss and misplaced to each of them face to face. That, on its face, ought to remove South Carolina.
But, maybe there is a extra emotional take right here; an “eye take a look at,” if you’ll.
Watch South Carolina over the previous six video games — all wins, together with towards Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson (to not point out a dominant efficiency towards an Oklahoma staff that whipped Alabama) — and it is fairly straightforward to counsel the Gamecocks are taking part in in addition to any staff within the nation.
Now, again within the four-team playoff period, this would not have mattered in any respect. Go again and take a look at 2015 Stanford with Christian McCaffrey, which misplaced its opener to Northwestern earlier than happening a roll and profitable 11 of its subsequent 12, or 2016 USC that began 1-3 and reeled off eight straight wins with a brand new QB. Those groups might’ve genuinely received all of it if they’d been given a ticket to the dance, however in these days, there was no room for the most well liked staff. Just essentially the most deserving.
But nobody actually deserving is unnoticed if we embrace South Carolina now. Miami and Alabama and Ole Miss (and others) all have their arguments in favor of inclusion, however as we famous on the prime, all have sufficient warts to overlook out, too.
So why not take the staff taking part in the perfect? How many instances within the NFL playoffs have we seen a staff that completed robust go on a run and win the Super Bowl? Are they any much less a champion, as a result of they misplaced a pair video games in September?
South Carolina’s inclusion can be a boon for all of the groups that develop because the season progresses, get higher by way of teaching, exhausting work and perseverance, that overcome adversity and rise to satisfy the second. In quick, South Carolina is a feel-good story in a sport that ought to embrace that kind of staff.
Instead, the committee is embracing Darth Vader as a result of the Empire holds a whole lot of sway over the galaxy.
Here’s a enjoyable blind comparability.
Team A: 10-2, No. 12 power of document, losses to SP+ Nos. 39 and 51 with greatest win towards SP+ No. 12
Team B: 10-2, No. 14 power of document, losses to SP+ Nos. 50 and 59 with greatest win towards SP+ No. 18
Neither of those groups will play of their convention championship video games.
If you needed to choose one for the playoff, which might you’re taking?
Well, the information are the identical, however Team A appears to have the sting in every single place else, proper?
OK, Team A is BYU.
Team B? That’s Miami.
We’re not arguing towards Miami, however Miami checks in as the primary staff out. BYU checks in behind three-loss Clemson!
Perhaps the Cougars’ losses (to Arizona State and Kansas) are purpose sufficient for exclusion (although by that logic, we must be waving goodbye to Alabama and Ole Miss, too), however the truth that BYU is not even within the dialog is ridiculous.
1:10
Booger: Committee on ‘slippery slope’ selecting Alabama over Miami
Booger McFarland and Joey Galloway talk about whether or not the CFP choice committee is making the fitting choice favoring Alabama over Miami.
We’ve laid out completely cheap arguments for Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina and BYU.
What’s the argument for Alabama?
Strength of schedule? South Carolina’s is best.
A giant win vs. Georgia? Ole Miss beat the Dawgs by extra.
Strength of document? That’s only a operate of power of schedule, and admittedly any document that features losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — together with one blowout — is not very “robust.”
Teams that didn’t lose by greater than a TD this yr:
Oregon, 12-0
Notre Dame, 11-1
Penn St, 11-1
Boise St, 11-1
SMU, 11-1
Miami, 10-2
BYU, 10-2
ULL, 10-2
Ohio St, 10-2
UNLV, 10-2
Ole Miss, 9-3
Louisville, 8-4
(Side be aware: Southern Miss went 0-11 vs FBS with all 11 losses by extra…— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) December 3, 2024
Better stats? Ole Miss is rated greater in SP+, Miami’s offense is way extra compelling, and South Carolina’s protection is, too.
So what precisely is the case for Alabama?
Committee chair Warde Manuel’s greatest try at an evidence: Alabama is 3-1 vs. the present prime 25. That, in fact, ignores that Miami has wins vs. the Nos. 1 and three groups within the AP’s others receiving votes checklist, and rating 25 groups is a wholly arbitrary cutoff. And extra importantly, it ignores that Alabama can be 6-2 vs. groups not within the present prime 25.
No, the actual case for Alabama is similar one the committee made final yr, that it believes — despite any exhausting proof — that Alabama is simply higher. It believes Alabama would win a future hypothetical matchup. It is prioritizing a intestine feeling.
We can criticize the committee for lots of issues, however most of it’s hair-splitting, and the parents on the committee have a very powerful job. We’re sympathetic. But when this group frequently — yr after yr (sure, we’re speaking to you, Florida State) — ignores what occurs within the precise video games on the precise subject of play in favor of its personal projections, that threatens to undermine your complete sport, and that is a disgrace.
Is Alabama a superb soccer staff? Sure. If the Tide get in, might they win a sport or two or the entire darn factor? Absolutely. But if that is the standards, then there was no want for Alabama’s gamers to swimsuit up 12 instances this yr and go to battle, and that is an insult to them — even when it means handing them a present within the course of.
We’ve argued a bunch over the No. 12 staff, however there’s one other debate rolling within the faculty soccer world, and that includes convention championships.
The debate has largely centered on SMU and whether or not the Mustangs, in the event that they lose the ACC title to Clemson, must be reevaluated in the event that they’re 11-2 (significantly if Clemson is stealing a playoff bid).
It’s an inexpensive dialogue. On one hand, there’s precedent. Just two years in the past, USC entered convention championship week ranked No. 4, solely to lose in a blowout to Utah. The committee dropped the Trojans to No. 10 and rewarded Ohio State — a staff that was sitting at dwelling and watching championship weekend — with a playoff berth. At the time, just about nobody even talked about this. It made logical sense.
But within the 12-team period, when there ought to ostensibly be a bigger margin for error, it appears completely fallacious to counsel a staff that received the fitting to play an additional sport ought to then have that additional information level held towards it to the purpose that it falls out of the playoff subject. (And, oh, how ironic wouldn’t it be if Lane Kiffin complained about this very risk, suggesting it was higher to overlook the SEC title sport, solely to have Kiffin’s staff get in on account of lacking the SEC championship and SMU dropping the ACC championship.)
But the large level being missed right here is that the dialogue should not cease with SMU. What about Boise State?
The Broncos are presently one of many 4 groups set to get first-round byes due to an 11-1 document, a head-to-head win over UNLV and a largely dominant season. But in the event that they lose a rematch to UNLV — a staff it has already overwhelmed as soon as — then the Broncos can be out of the playoff completely.
Is that honest?
Well, this is one other comparability.
Team A: 11-1, No. 13 power of document, loss to a top-10 staff by 3, 4 wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and one win vs. a presently ranked foe.
Team B: 11-1, No. 8 power of document, loss to a top-10 staff by 23, three wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and no wins vs. presently ranked foes.
It must be famous right here that the schedule power distinction between the 2 is about an 8% margin — notable, however not vital.
Who would you say was extra deserving of a playoff bid?
Team A, as you would possibly’ve guessed, is Boise State.
Team B is ranked one spot forward of the Broncos. It’s Indiana, a staff that will not play one other sport and is taken into account safely in.
So, why precisely is Boise State not additionally safely in proper now?
It’s a query the committee must be asking.
Also indignant this week: Duke Blue Devils (9-3, unranked), Missouri Tigers (9-3, No. 19), Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3, No. 21), Georgia Bulldogs (who had been docked far worse for losses towards Ole Miss and Alabama than Ohio State was for dropping to 7-5 Michigan), Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, No. 7 and may have the first-round dwelling sport being handed to Ohio State) and Ryan Day, as a result of life is actually unfair typically.
