A coalition of Syrian insurgent teams spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has taken Syria’s capital of Damascus by storm, driving President Bashar al-Assad into exile and opening a brand new unsure future within the war-torn nation. Despite China’s distance from the battle’s epicenter, the insurgent takeover ought to be setting off alarms in Beijing.
China’s concern stems from credible studies of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) preventing alongside HTS. The TIP, often known as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), is a Uyghur separatist group with origins in China’s restive western province of Xinjiang and deep ties to al-Qaeda and its affiliated teams.
It is searching for an unbiased Islamic state in Xinjiang referred to as East Turkestan. TIP was designated a terrorist group by China and the UN, and up till 2020, additionally by the US. The militant group was based in Pakistan however has since established a foothold in neighboring Afghanistan. In latest years, the group’s affect in Afghanistan and Pakistan waned beneath Chinese strain.
In a stunning flip of occasions, lots of the militants and their households took refuge within the Syrian insurgent stronghold of Idlib. By 2017, then-Syrian ambassador to China Imad Moustapha claimed that there have been as many as 5,000 Uyghur militants in Syria.
Turkey backed the TIP’s relocation to Syria, a gambit that successfully killed two birds with one stone. Turkey is sympathetic to the plight of its oppressed Turkic brethren and it was in a position to take the Uyghurs beneath its wing in areas beneath its affect in northern Syria.
Additionally, Turkey desires to create a pro-Turkey bulwark towards the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in jap Syria. Turkey believes that ought to the SDF take over the Syrian aspect of the Turkey-Syria border, Kurdish separatists on each side of the border will be a part of fingers to undermine its territorial integrity and nationwide safety.
Hence, upon arriving in Syria, the TIP took up arms alongside different Syrian insurgent teams towards the Assad regime and its SDF ally. The Emir of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has stated, “The TIP has been in Syria for seven years and has by no means posed a risk to the surface world.
“They are dedicated to defending Idlib towards the Assad regime’s aggression as a result of as Uyghurs, they face persecution in China – which we strongly condemn – and have nowhere else to go. But their wrestle towards China isn’t ours. They are welcomed to remain as lengthy they abide by our guidelines – which they do.”
Beyond voicing assist for the Uyghur trigger, HTS has no evident curiosity in taking over China. As such, HTS’ victory within the Syrian civil warfare doesn’t pose a right away risk to China.
However, TIP militants gaining fight expertise does. Chinese Major General Jin Yinan has claimed that the TIP is preventing in Syria to attract consideration to the Uyghur trigger and to achieve fight expertise in order that they will sooner or later use these preventing abilities towards Beijing.
The declare was confirmed when the Emir of the TIP, Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, referred to as on Uyghurs from world wide to hitch the combat towards the Assad regime – and China. “Today, we’re serving to our brothers wage jihad in Greater Syria. Tomorrow, the troopers of Islam have to be able to return to China to liberate Xinjiang from the communist occupiers.”
Beijing claims that the TIP carried out terrorist assaults in China in 2008, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Attacks included ramming automobiles into pedestrians, stabbings with knives in public areas, automotive bombs, and suicide bombings.
It is troublesome to confirm if the group was behind all the claimed assaults. Some have been most likely carried out by lone wolves disgruntled with the social-economic inequality in Xinjiang.
Nonetheless, Beijing blames the group for all the assaults and has applied restrictive measures, epitomized by big detention amenities, within the Uyghur’s house province in response. These strict measures is not going to seemingly maintain a lid on the unrest eternally, with clear indicators it continues to bubble simply beneath the floor.
Indeed, in 2022, China’s Permanent Representative to the UN claimed that TIP-related violence was resurgent in recent times, saying, “the TIP isn’t solely launching assaults in Syria, however can also be utilizing Syria as base to recruit and practice militants to launch assaults on China and Central Asia.”
To deal with the reemergent risk, Beijing vowed to “coordinate with Syria and different related events to fight TIP terrorism.” The assertion was made amid studies that TIP participated in an assault that killed 112 folks at a army academy in Homs final yr. What the assertion meant in precise apply, nonetheless, stays unclear.
Rumors of Chinese troop deployments to Syria surfaced in 2017 and 2018, however ultimately, none have been deployed. In addition, whereas Chinese-made weapons made their method to authorities forces, they have been both redistributed by third events or have been bought to Syria a very long time in the past. No direct arms gross sales have been made after the civil warfare broke out.
Despite TIP’s supposed rising risk to China’s nationwide safety, Beijing has remained steadfast to its decade-long modus operandi of non-intervention. It has been content material to this point to freeride on different nations with boots on the bottom in Syria.
The solely significant motion Beijing took was to carry high-level talks with Damascus to share intelligence on the TIP’s actions on a month-to-month foundation starting in 2016. This intelligence stream will discontinue with Assad’s fall from energy.
China’s obvious inaction sends a message that whereas Beijing is worried by the truth that if battle-hardened TIP militants – identified for preventing like “lions” in Syria – make their manner again to China in adequate numbers, it should face an insurgency many instances stronger than the earlier one it doesn’t consider this may occur as it’s unclear the TIP can and can return to China.
On the one hand, the TIP don’t shrink back from this goal of their propaganda. In Syria, they’ve notably did not combine into native communities, with language being the first barrier. Arabs are prevented from coming into Uyghur villages by TIP militants as a result of they aren’t “Chinese” – suggesting that they continue to be hooked up to their Chinese homeland.
On the opposite hand, TIP militants promoting their property in China earlier than transferring with their households to Syria despatched a message that they’re there to remain. Furthermore, Chinese safety has improved markedly in recent times, a lot in order that it might be troublesome for militants to enter China undetected in vital numbers.
However, the Syrian civil warfare’s obvious finish may shift the TIP’s calculus. For the primary time in a decade, the TIP now not has to wrestle to make ends meet in a sliver of land in northern Syria. As such, the TIP may rapidly set its militant sights elsewhere.
Beijing is nervous that whereas China itself stays out of attain, TIP militants will as soon as once more settle in neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan. That’s a excessive danger as the 2 nations have turn into secure havens in recent times for varied terrorist organizations, together with ISIS-Ok, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).
Indeed, there was an uptick in assaults on Chinese residents and belongings overseas in recent times, particularly in Pakistan. Despite the shortage of obtainable proof, Beijing believes these assaults stem from the TIP’s collusion with ISIS, al-Qaeda and the BLA to undermine China’s abroad pursuits and investments.
Therefore, ought to battle-hardened TIP militants return to Pakistan and be a part of forces with the TTP, BLA and others, as Beijing claims is already taking place, it might pose a critical risk to China’s strategic pursuits as its flagship undertaking – the Belt and Road Initiative – runs by way of the nation.
With Assad ousted and Russia and Iran’s capability to test and comprise Syrian insurgent teams and their allies diminished, the probability of this situation has elevated exponentially.
“A butterfly flapping its wings in China could cause a hurricane within the Caribbean,” the previous saying goes. Conversely, a frozen battle thawing in Syria can erect roadblocks to China’s international ambitions. The time has come for China to rethink its overseas coverage towards Syria and additional afield.
Yang Xiaotong is an assistant researcher at a Beijing-based unbiased assume tank.
