Beginning with snow in South Bend, the College Football Playoff made its on-campus debut this weekend. The scenes haven’t disenchanted.
Up subsequent is the quarterfinal spherical, which options 4 video games performed at conventional postseason websites: the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Peach Bowl. Much like the primary spherical, the quarterfinals will span two days. No. 3 Boise State kicks issues off and can make its first-ever CFP look — albeit in a really acquainted recreation, the Fiesta Bowl, the place 18 years in the past a lot of the nation realized concerning the Broncos of their unforgettable win in opposition to Oklahoma. They’ll face No. 6 Penn State.
The New Year’s Day slate begins with maybe probably the most stunning CFP entrant: Arizona State, which was picked to complete final within the 16-team Big 12 and received the league to earn the No. 4 seed. Coach Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils shall be within the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl for the primary time since 1970 and can face No. 5 Texas. Up subsequent would be the Rose Bowl Game introduced by Prudential, by which No. 1 seed Oregon, the nation’s solely undefeated staff this season, will take the sector and face No. 8 Ohio State in a extremely anticipated rematch. An unimaginable day winds up in New Orleans, the place No. 2 seed Georgia, the one staff within the CFP discipline to win a nationwide championship prior to now 4 seasons, will face No. 7 Notre Dame on the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Ten groups are left within the hunt for a nationwide championship, following a season of unpredictability. Here’s a take a look at the primary two quarterfinal matchups and what to anticipate Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. — Adam Rittenberg
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Penn State vs. Boise State
Texas vs. Arizona State
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State
When: Dec. 31, 7:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we realized in Round 1: Perhaps we realized Penn State has an elite protection, however that appeared fairly clear earlier than the 38-10 win over SMU by which the D picked off Kevin Jennings 3 times within the first half, returning two for touchdowns. Moreover, these interceptions have been as a lot a press release about SMU’s incompetence on the execution of these performs as Penn State’s brilliance. Perhaps we realized that, as soon as once more, the 106,000-plus followers in Happy Valley can create havoc for opposing groups, however that will not be a bonus via the remainder of the playoff for Penn State. Perhaps we realized coach James Franklin can win an enormous one. He had been simply 5-21 vs. top-12 groups at Penn State getting into this yr’s playoff. But whereas SMU might need earned its No. 11 rating, the expertise disparity on the sector clearly favored Penn State, and had the Mustangs not imploded of their very own accord so early, there may’ve been actual hand-wringing over Franklin’s perplexing fourth-down name from his personal 20-yard line up 14-0 or the offense’s incapability to interrupt huge performs in opposition to SMU till the rating was solely lopsided. In different phrases, Penn State’s win was encouraging, as a result of issues principally went proper, and the Nittany Lions did what they have been purported to do. But past that, a simple victory in opposition to an SMU staff that helped by beating itself did not precisely show that this yr’s Penn State is lastly able to getting over the hump in opposition to a genuinely top-tier opponent. The actually excellent news is, the Nittany Lions are going to get at the very least yet one more likelihood to do exactly that.
X issue: QB Drew Allar. Allar and the Penn State passing recreation have been a blended bag over the previous two years. The top-line numbers communicate for themselves. Allar wins, he would not flip the ball over, and he has moved the ball constantly in opposition to lesser competitors. But the downfield menace has by no means fairly materialized for Allar, even because the offense’s explosiveness has improved with Andy Kotelnicki calling performs in 2024. Part of that comes from the dearth of a real velocity demon on the skin, and a part of it comes from a recreation plan constructed round two proficient tailbacks. But there’ll come a time in these playoffs — and fairly presumably in opposition to Boise State — when Allar wants to alter the dynamic, pressure a protection to respect the vertical menace and win some battles downfield.
How Penn State wins: It’s unlikely Penn State can utterly run again the blueprint for beating SMU, as it is not typically a protection is presented so many huge performs by the opposing quarterback, however the fundamental framework for a win ought to look bit like what the Nittany Lions did in Round 1. It’s no secret Boise State’s magic is created by tailback Ashton Jeanty, so if Penn State can pressure the sport into Maddux Madsen’s palms as an alternative, there’s cause to assume it could possibly money in on some QB errors, simply because it did in opposition to SMU. Of course, that is simpler mentioned than completed. Jeanty has confronted his share of stacked containers this season, so not solely does Penn State must game-plan to cease Jeanty on protection, however Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton & Co. have to truly convey down the Heisman Trophy runner-up earlier than he can escape into house. — David Hale
Key participant: RB Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has turned in the most effective seasons school soccer has ever seen from a operating again, dashing for two,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, to complete second within the Heisman voting. He wants 132 yards to interrupt Barry Sanders’ single-season dashing report, which has stood since 1988 (when bowl stats didn’t depend towards official stats). Jeanty can do all of it: get powerful yards, break lengthy ones, catch passes. And he has completed it as the focus from opposing defenses in a method few gamers ever are.
X issue: QB Maddux Madsen. There is not actually a query of what the Broncos will get from Jeanty. He’s going to ship when the probabilities are there and, most likely, once they aren’t. In the Mountain West, he was dominant sufficient to reduce the significance of the passing recreation. That will not be the case on this recreation. The Broncos will want complementary soccer and Madsen to rise to the event. In the common season, Madsen did a superb job defending the soccer — he threw 29 touchdowns to only three interceptions — and that needs to be the case in opposition to Penn State. The Nittany Lions terrorized SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, and SMU by no means stood an opportunity along with his poor efficiency.
How Boise State wins: When the Broncos misplaced by three at Oregon in September, they went toe-to-toe with the Ducks from begin to end. That efficiency earned them plenty of credibility with the choice committee and is probably the blueprint for learn how to advance. The key half right here just isn’t falling behind early. They by no means trailed by greater than a rating in opposition to Oregon, and that allowed Jeanty to remain as concerned as potential. He’s going to see loaded containers, as normal, however the opposing expertise stage is way larger than something the Broncos have seen since Oregon. If Boise State can hold on to the ball and keep away from third-and-long, it’s going to have a puncher’s likelihood. — Kyle Bonagura
When: Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we realized in Round 1: Texas can morph into no matter kind essential to advance. Quinn Ewers began 8-for-8, however he cooled off after a ball bounced off DeAndre Moore Jr.’s palms and become an interception. But the operating recreation took over Saturday for the Longhorns. After operating for a complete of 60 yards in two losses to Georgia this yr, the Longhorns had two 100-yard rushers in opposition to Clemson, simply the fourth pair of operating backs to prime the century mark within the playoff. Jaydon Blue, who had 38- and 77-yard landing runs — the second the Longhorns’ longest run of the season — added some explosiveness to an offense that has been methodical all season. This Texas staff has dimensions the place it could possibly shift gears.
X issue: Texas tight finish Gunnar Helm is a dependable safety blanket for Ewers and the Longhorns, catching a landing with 33 seconds left within the first half, and three of his different 5 catches went for first downs, all approaching first down. The menace of Helm on early downs over the center softens up seems for the remainder of the offense. The 6-5, 250-pound senior is now first in Longhorns historical past in catches by a good finish and second in yards and touchdowns by a good finish in a season.
How Texas wins: Run the ball and shut down Cam Skattebo. The Texas cross protection was gashed by Clemson at occasions, giving up three passing TDs after surrendering solely 4 all season, however with out Jordyn Tyson, the Sun Devils won’t have sufficient weapons to maintain spreading out the nation’s greatest cross protection. If Texas can comprise Skattebo (within the passing recreation, too) and feed its personal operating backs behind a powerful offensive line, the Longhorns can stifle the Sun Devils and milk the clock whereas making them play from behind. — Dave Wilson
Key participant: RB Cam Skattebo. What is to not love about the best way Skattebo performs? His emergence grew to become the most effective storylines of the season, as he ended up ending fifth within the Heisman voting. He rushed for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns whereas including 506 yards and three touchdowns receiving — the one participant within the nation with 1,000-plus yards dashing and 400-plus yards receiving (even with one missed recreation). As if that weren’t spectacular sufficient, the final participant to hit these marks was Christian McCaffrey in 2015. Skattebo bought higher because the season progressed — and his efficiency within the Big 12 championship recreation speaks to that. He was named Most Outstanding Player of the sport after scoring three touchdowns (two dashing, one receiving), with 208 yards of whole offense.
X issue: DB Xavion Alford. It is tough to name the most effective defensive gamers within the Big 12 an X issue, however a lot of the deal with the Sun Devils has been on their offense that Alford deserves a few of the highlight — and he’s more likely to have a possibility to return up huge. An All-Big 12 first-team choice, Alford has been the mannequin of consistency and an ironman of kinds. He performed the fourth-most snaps in protection within the Big 12 this season (424, thirty third amongst all FBS gamers) and allowed simply seven receptions, the third fewest in FBS (minimal 300 protection snaps). Teams have realized to not throw his method — he has been focused simply 17 occasions this season. As a outcome, he has allowed solely 76 yards in protection, fourth lowest amongst FBS gamers.
How Arizona State wins: Texas presents the most important, most bodily problem up entrance that Arizona State has confronted this season. The Longhorns utterly owned Clemson on the line of scrimmage of their first-round recreation, so to defeat them, Arizona State must match or beat that physicality — and pressure Ewers into making errors. We all know what Skattebo can do, however Texas ranks as the most effective defenses within the nation — so retaining that group off-balance goes to be key. Sam Leavitt has proven unimaginable poise because the beginning quarterback, however the offensive line goes to have to verify to maintain Texas at bay so he doesn’t get rattled. — Andrea Adelson
When: Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we realized in Round 1: Despite falling to Michigan, Ohio State is a lot able to successful the nationwide championship. The Buckeyes bounced again in an enormous method, throttling one of many SEC’s prime groups all yr in Tennessee. Ohio State jumped to a 21-0 lead within the first quarter and by no means seemed again. Wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka bought open at will, and quarterback Will Howard put the ball on the cash. Defensively, linebacker Cody Simon set a bodily tone, cracking Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava‘s helmet on the opening drive with a devastating hit. It’s laborious to see anybody else within the playoff defeating this model of the Buckeyes.
X issue: The Volunteers merely could not cowl Smith, who ignited the Ohio State scoring barrage with a 37-yard scoring seize on the opening possession. Ohio State curiously gave Smith solely two targets within the Michigan loss, with each coming within the third quarter, leading to only one catch for 3 yards. This time round, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s recreation plan in opposition to Tennessee clearly was to get the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Wide Receiver of the Year concerned early and sometimes. The Buckeyes have succesful veteran playmakers (Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins), however Ohio State’s offense is at its most harmful when Smith is touching the ball.
How Ohio State wins: In their first assembly, the Buckeyes allowed Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel to function with a clear pocket (no sacks, solely two QB hurries). The Heisman Trophy finalist made them play with 341 passing yards, highlighted by a number of completions downfield and two touchdowns on the best way to the 32-31 victory. As the Tennessee recreation illustrated, Ohio State has the cross rushers — notably Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau — to overwhelm the opposing quarterback. Getting to Gabriel within the rematch shall be paramount for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Key participant: QB Dillon Gabriel. This is why Gabriel left Oklahoma and made his method to Eugene, to play in video games like this. The fifth-year senior will lead Oregon into the Rose Bowl with an opportunity to remain undefeated and get one step nearer to his final purpose of successful a nationwide championship. Only Shedeur Sanders had a greater completion proportion than Gabriel this season, a formidable feat when you think about that is his first yr within the Ducks’ offense. Gabriel slot in seamlessly into offensive coordinator Will Stein’s unit and has produced his greatest video games when Oregon has wanted him probably the most — 341 yards and two touchdowns in opposition to Ohio State and 283 yards and 4 touchdowns within the Big Ten title recreation in opposition to Penn State. For Oregon to advance, Gabriel might want to not simply replicate these sorts of performances, however doubtless dig deeper for extra.
X issue: DE Jordan Burch. Oregon’s protection hasn’t precisely lacked for a lot given its depth and expertise, however Burch has been a pressure. Despite lacking 4 video games with an damage, he has been capable of tally 8.5 sacks (twentieth within the nation), together with a 2.5-sack outing in opposition to Washington within the regular-season finale. Having an prolonged relaxation interval between the Big Ten title recreation and the Rose Bowl is a boon for a participant like Burch, who might single-handedly tilt the sport within the Ducks’ favor by wreaking havoc within the opposing staff’s backfield.
How Oregon wins: The Ducks have the profit (or the curse, relying on the way you take a look at it) no different staff within the quarterfinals has: They’ve already overwhelmed their opponent as soon as. Against the Buckeyes in October, Oregon fought fireplace with fireplace, out-gaining, outmatching and finally outscoring Ohio State by a single level in Eugene, due to a handful of explosive performs, fewer penalties and successful the turnover battle (2-0). The margin between these two groups is already slim and on a impartial website, Oregon must be extra explosive, extra disciplined and easily higher — particularly on protection, the place they allowed 467 whole yards — to have the ability to beat a tricky opponent twice. The method the playoff bracket shook out just isn’t how the No. 1 seed Ducks would have doubtless most well-liked, however what we get because of this is a rematch that would present us with an all-time traditional between arguably the 2 greatest groups within the nation this yr. It’s solely becoming that the setting would be the Rose Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti
When: Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we realized in Round 1: Notre Dame has a championship-level protection with stars in any respect three ranges. Safety Xavier Watts received the Bronko Nagurski Award in 2023, however he is really even higher this season and confirmed why in opposition to Indiana with 10 tackles and an interception. Jaiden Ausberry led a playmaking group of linebackers and Rylie Mills created havoc up entrance, as Notre Dame flexed on third down (7 of 13 conversions). Notre Dame’s offense is not at all times probably the most fluid unit, however with so many operating choices, chunk performs are at all times potential, and Jeremiyah Love can ship them, as he confirmed with a 98-yard landing, the longest play in CFP historical past.
X issue: WR Jordan Faison, a standout lacrosse participant thrust into motion at huge receiver in 2023 due to attrition, has grow to be a sneaky good goal for quarterback Riley Leonard. Despite lacking three early-season video games with a sprained ankle, Faison has made a number of catches in each contest he has appeared in, and he had a career-high seven receptions for 89 yards in opposition to Indiana. “He’s a playmaker, man,” coach Marcus Freeman mentioned. The sophomore additionally has a knack for shining within the postseason, as he earned Sun Bowl MVP honors final yr with 115 receiving yards and a landing in opposition to Oregon State. Notre Dame cannot beat Georgia strictly with its run recreation, and it’ll want wideouts reminiscent of Faison to make notable contributions.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish should harass Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton, doubtless filling in for injured starter Carson Beck, simply as they did Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke on Friday. Notre Dame’s protection, which has carried the staff a lot of the season, recorded 10 tackles for loss and three sacks in opposition to Indiana and barely let the Hoosiers function on schedule. The Irish additionally want to duplicate the offensive stability they confirmed in opposition to Indiana whereas being a bit extra constant on the bottom. Remove Love’s 98-yard landing, and Notre Dame had 95 internet dashing yards on 34 carries. Notre Dame additionally should play a cleaner recreation on particular groups after having a discipline purpose try blocked and an onside kick recovered by Indiana late within the recreation. — Rittenberg
Key participant: QB Gunner Stockton. With Bulldogs starter Carson Beck most likely sidelined for the CFP due to an elbow damage on his throwing arm, they will flip to Stockton, who is anticipated to make his first begin within the Sugar Bowl. Stockton accomplished 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in Georgia’s 22-19 victory over Texas within the SEC championship recreation. He got here off the bench to rally the Bulldogs again from a 6-3 deficit on the half. The third-year sophomore has accomplished 78.1% of his makes an attempt for 206 yards in components of three video games in 2024. Stockton is extra of a runner than Beck, however he has far much less expertise. At Rabun County High School, Stockton had 13,652 profession passing yards and 177 passing touchdowns to go together with 4,372 dashing yards and 77 dashing touchdowns in his four-year profession. He set Georgia state highschool information for profession passing touchdowns, passing yards and dashing touchdowns.
X issue: RB Trevor Etienne. The Florida switch returned from an almost monthlong absence due to a rib damage and ran for 94 yards with two scores within the SEC championship recreation. He ran for 87 yards with three touchdowns in a 30-15 victory over the Longhorns within the common season. Etienne can grow to be an enormous security valve for Stockton due to his potential to catch the ball out of the backfield — he has 28 receptions for 168 yards. Etienne can be a more-than-capable blocker, which shall be essential if Notre Dame’s protection decides to dial up the warmth on Stockton. The Irish are thirty ninth in run protection within the FBS (133 yards per recreation), and so they held Indiana to solely 63 yards within the first spherical.
How Georgia wins: With Stockton stepping below heart, the Bulldogs are going to wish their protection to stand up huge time. This hasn’t been Georgia’s greatest protection below coach Kirby Smart; it ranks twenty first in scoring protection (20.4 factors), thirty sixth in opposition to the run (127.8 yards) and thirty fifth in whole protection (334.8 yards). The protection has performed properly in a few of Georgia’s largest video games, together with wins over Texas and Tennessee. Linebackers Smael Mondon Jr. and Jalon Walker might want to management Notre Dame’s operating recreation, and so they’ll must pressure the Irish into a few turnovers. — Mark Schlabach
